Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skipdd]

Took a breath and bought more. Rounded up to a new even number. Fundamentals still solid. Watch, wait, possibly buy more. As a side note, we had our tax prep mtg this weekend and I was discussing Tesla with our accountant, who agreed with my view (courtesy of info shared here). I just wish we owned a mountain..

 

[Paul_SF]

Tesla delivered the first Ys in UK, as per a post on their Instagram.

 

[Drumheller]

TSLA disproportionate drop definitely has something to do with Giga Berlin news of more delays. Now they’re looking at water consumption by Tesla suppliers that move into the region. This can drag on and on and push the chances of never getting a permit and being forced to dismantle the factory to greater than zero percent. All German auto companies are laughing at Tesla right now…

If I were a well financed interest opposing Tesla, this is exactly what I would have done. Entice Tesla to build a factory in a shiny target, wait for Tesla to commit a large amount of capital and time into building the factory, then one-by-one throw every delay possible at the factory to stop it from producing.

I don't doubt Tesla will succeed but nothing that is happening in Berlin is surprising me. Austin will be humming along before Berlin gets past the roadblocks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I gotta say I’m legit surprised the 200 day was broken that easy and it’s clearly not regaining it today. So a clear break below. The volume especially isn’t as strong as I would have expected which is why it broke through so easily. The fact that TSLA is down 5X the macros is clearly showing this a coordinated raid on TSLA to make it close below a key level.

And there’s no clear support level underneath the 200 day sooooooo……who knows what happens in the short term here. I expect to see lots of fear mongering saying “TSLA could drop all the way to pre Covid levels”, which is laughable.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I gotta say I’m legit surprised the 200 day was broken that easy and it’s clearly not regaining it today. So a clear break below. The volume especially isn’t as strong as I would have expected which is why it broke through so easily. The fact that TSLA is down 5X the macros is clearly showing this a coordinated raid on TSLA to make it close below a key level.

And there’s no clear support level underneath the 200 day sooooooo……who knows what happens in the short term here. I expect to see lots of fear mongering saying “TSLA could drop all the way to pre Covid levels”, which is laughable.

There's no volume, so any MM who can short without limit can do so quite safely. We're definitely in the chicken game now!

 

[Tyler34]

Well I've had to put building my mountain on hold. Let this be a cautionary tale to all those who advise others to just borrow against their shares instead of selling to finance their new home.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This, along with all the other distracting news - lawsuits, recycled FSD bad behavior, recent tweets, has made me re-evaluate my position on Tesla.
Looking at the 'unfortunate' Q4 earnings call once more, I am again reminded that:

• Tesla has 2022 primary focus on cranking out cars. Lot's of cars. Exactly where it should be.
• Tesla expects to up production 50% in 2022
• Tesla doesn't need either Berlin or Austin to achieve this

Added to those are the recent observations

• Austin is getting MIGHTY close given the videos out now. Every car produced there pushes the increase OVER the expected 50%.
• The competition is so worried they are literally advertising at great cost against Tesla during the Superbowl and it worked (for Tesla) !!!

Added to those are my own convictions:

• Every Model 3 / Y sold makes a new Tesla ... constituent who will demand EV-related changes to the world around them. Economically and politically.
• Every Model 3 / Y sold immunizes one more person to the crescendo of FUD we're now seeing because they know the car.
• Every Model 3 / Y sold adds to the "show your friends and neighbors" goodwill sales force

OK, I guess no change to my position after all. Especially since I'm about out of dry powder again

I'm still all in 100% TSLA since Christmas (except for the call closed last Thurs). Wishing I had (a little more) powder, but I think Investing is about sticking to your plan and not reacting to the swings, and I know it's all coming back soon. The FUD is high all around, so people should be buying hard. Even TMC folks are getting sensitive, another sign of a bottom. FYI, I like how you made it look as though you were bailing, it gets people to read some facts and maybe learn something new.

Here's to the people who sold some last year to buy a home! I almost chose a similar move, but decided to keep all debt to max investment. That's the plan, I'm sticking to it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

For them to be delayed again?

This keeps coming up. I think the recent video by @avoigt should be required viewing for everyone wanting to talk about Giga Berlin, as he is one of the most authoritative voices on the subject. He doesn't think subsequent expansions will be subject to the same scrutiny. If Alex, who has enough credibility - with his understanding of German bureaucracy and sources close to the process - thinks that way, that's good enough for me unless new information comes to light to dictate otherwise.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

There's no volume, so any MM who can short without limit can do so quite safely. We're definitely in the chicken game now!

The volume, or lack thereof, is the bizarre thing to me. The 200 day has been very very strong support for TSLA since the stock started its run.

And for it to break with no support volume that easily after the stock is already down 35% in the matter of 2 months is downright shocking to me. Not trying to scare anyone. TSLA will be fine long term, but now I’m wondering how low TSLA has to go before actually buying volume will come back in. Volume in general has been anemic for months, very similar to the first half of 2021.

We’ve already fallen more % wise than the drop in the first half of 2021…..and still no buyers willing to jump in.

The most bizarre thing about this is wall st is making the stock extremely easy to predict pretty much after Q2’s earnings. They’re compressing the multiple incredibly tight…..and the more TSLA drops, the more predictable the impending stock rise is. It’s getting to the point where I’m about to take on even more leverage

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not so sure. Berlin might stay a "small" factory after this and Tesla might decide to build another new factory somewhere else in Europe. The red tape throughout this whole ordeal just might sway them to make that choice.

God save us from English food, Italian traffic, and German democracy... though I hear Bratislava is quite nice this time of year.

Ach, who my kidding? They're going to end up steaming Guo tie pork with rice cakes during Oktoberfest by 2025 (to the tune of 2M+ imported Tesla's per year, and 0.5M domestics)

Bravaria: former home of the German auto industry, future home of unter wasser werkes (starting with a bankrupt BMW).

 

[Accident]

Thanks to @avoigt :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496159971410653191

The Bloomberg's report that is circulating is not very clear on what the actual issue for Tesla is. This is what I gather after checking a few articles:

• On March 4 a court in Frankfurt will hear the lawsuit brought by environmental groups Nabu and Gruene Liga
• The lawsuit is against a permit granted for the rate of withdrawal from the Eggersdorf water catchment, and not the construction of Giga Berlin.
• Rate increased from 3.7 million cubic meters per year, up from the previously approved rate of 2.5 million cubic meters per year established in 1976.
• Brandenburg government sees no risk to the resident's water supply with these changes.
• The groups claim that due to droughts and global warming the high rate of water consumption at Giga Berlin will put the water supply at risk for residents.
• Tesla has a contract for 1.4 million cubic meters of water per year with the Strausberg-Erkner water association (WSE).
• WSE claims that a decision from the administrative court could put the contract with Tesla at risk.

So, Alex is right. Tesla has a contract that guarantees the water supply. However, a court decision could put that contract at risk.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well I've had to put building my mountain on hold. Let this be a cautionary tale to all those who advise others to just borrow against their shares instead of selling to finance their new home.

It's been a brutal few months, for sure. Sentiment is just terrible in the market in general, and even moreso with TSLA. We're now down about 35% from the high set in November, and the stock has been trading really pretty terribly for going on almost four months now.

If you look back to the longterm downtrend in 1H'21, this current correction has already lasted almost as long (just under four months), and is already almost as deep of a correction (that one was 38%).

 

[Cherry Wine]

The Bloomberg's report that is circulating is not very clear on what the actual issue for Tesla is. This is what I gather after checking a few articles:

• On March 4 a court in Frankfurt will hear the lawsuit brought by environmental groups Nabu and Gruene Liga
• The lawsuit is against a permit granted for the rate of withdrawal from the Eggersdorf water catchment, and not the construction of Giga Berlin.
• Rate increased from 3.7 million cubic meters per year, up from the previously approved rate of 2.5 million cubic meters per year established in 1976.
• Brandenburg government sees no risk to the resident's water supply with these changes.
• The groups claim that due to droughts and global warming the high rate of water consumption at Giga Berlin will put the water supply at risk for residents.
• Tesla has a contract for 1.4 million cubic meters of water per year with the Strausberg-Erkner water association (WSE).
• WSE claims that a decision from the administrative court could put the contract with Tesla at risk.

So, Alex is right. Tesla has a contract that guarantees the water supply. However, a court decision could put that contract at risk.

Sadly, I agree. A contract is not some ironclad defense against the supply agreement being invalidated by the court.

 

[canoemore]

The volume, or lack thereof, is the bizarre thing to me. The 200 day has been very very strong support for TSLA since the stock started its run.

And for it to break with no support volume that easily after the stock is already down 35% in the matter of 2 months is downright shocking to me. Not trying to scare anyone. TSLA will be fine long term, but now I’m wondering how low TSLA has to go before actually buying volume will come back in. Volume in general has been anemic for months, very similar to the first half of 2021.

We’ve already fallen more % wise than the drop in the first half of 2021…..and still no buyers willing to jump in.

The most bizarre thing about this is wall st is making the stock extremely easy to predict pretty much after Q2’s earnings. They’re compressing the multiple incredibly tight…..and the more TSLA drops, the more predictable the impending stock rise is. It’s getting to the point where I’m about to take on even more leverage

It is baffling. Fundamentally stronger than ever, growth apparently de-risked more than ever, demand for products stronger than ever (with the medium- long-term looking very bright in that regard, especially with high oil prices).

Ugh. So long as none of the above changes too much I'm close to cheering for it to plummet to an even more ridiculous valuation so I can accumulate more cheaply (this despite having a couple of calls that would suffer).

 

[StealthP3D]

Well I've had to put building my mountain on hold. Let this be a cautionary tale to all those who advise others to just borrow against their shares instead of selling to finance their new home.

Follow the two-year rule:

Never invest money in a stock that you think you will need within two years.

In your case it sounds like it was a 'want" more than a need as you didn't have to sell at current depressed prices so that's a huge positive. But it can put your life on hold to not fully appreciate how volatility can affect asset values in the short-term.

 

[viridi]

Obviously, lots of games being played today with TSLA (basically down 4x the markets on a % basis (has been 5x at times today)). Just a small sample of what "they" have been doing all day: there was significant spoofing as TSLA tried to run back a bit about 20 minutes ago. Big push down as TSLA approached $814 (likely protecting a run above $815). Sell orders for 1,000 and 2,000 shares being put in and pulled. These seemingly phony orders were very effective at capping at $814. Macros again, of course, not helping the stock price (other than helping the shorts/spoofers).

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Not only legacy auto seeing the winds of change but looks like Tesla's Semi Truck business is causing some manufacturers to scramble to join the paradigm shift:

At risk of becoming yet another company disrupted by Tesla, diesel engine giant Cummins is prepared to bet big the U.S. commercial truck market will go electric just like cars: A diesel engine firm just bet $3.7 billion to survive Tesla's EV dominance

"As soon as an electric truck's total cost of ownership, or TCO, slips below that of a comparable diesel truck, customers will begin making the switch in large numbers in order to outcompete their rivals. That makes the slope of the curve potentially far more steep than for cars, where less rational factors play a role in purchasing decisions."

 

[Unpilot]

Follow the two-year rule:

Never invest money in a stock that you think you will need within two years.

In your case it sounds like it was a 'want" more than a need as you didn't have to sell at current depressed prices so that's a huge positive. But it can put your life on hold to not fully appreciate how volatility can affect asset values in the short-term.

I have managed to blow thru some cash doing short term bets.
Currently, I will need to sell some chairs to pay off a large bill.

The short term volatility has unfortunately for me been all on the downside.

However, I only need to look in the mirror to see who to blame.
No tweet or anything else....just me betting that everyone else saw the results of Q4 and 2021 and thought...WOW this is an amazing company.

Instead, we had this several month long slide that I can't take advantage of.

I think I am gunna sit back and HODL

 

[dm28997]

Shaking out the weak hands is pretty normal. Going skiing. Enjoy.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

It is baffling. Fundamentally stronger than ever, growth apparently de-risked more than ever, demand for products stronger than ever

It's not baffling. TSLA stock was priced for perfection and now we have; Berlin not going as planned, war breaking out, hostile gov. agencies, end of Covid relief, rising interest rates and competition coming. Of course I'm joking about the last one but most people still believe that.