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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TSLA has never been priced for perfection. It has always been undervalued by a lot.

A year ago, I said I thought we were roughly 'fairly valued' at around $850. A few months ago, I said I thought we were fairly valued at around $950. But at all times I thought we would be worth much more in two to three years. When I said those things, I was not speaking to how much I thought TSLA was worth to me, I was guessing how much it was worth to the market. And of course, I was right because that's what it was trading at! LOL! But I was actually saying more than that. Specifically, that I thought we were close to the average price the market would pay, ie without volatility.

My point is there really is no such thing as 'fair value' with a company growing so rapidly, and that would be true even if you could magically see the financials that would be published in 3 years from the date of the valuation. A company with any given metrics, both currently and in three years' time, would still be worth different amounts to different people. The markets appetite for an investment, even one with very specific metrics, is always changing.

Personally, given Tesla's growth metrics and solid history of performance, I'm a little surprised that average price the market is willing to pay isn't a little more than it is. But that's probably because I'm closer to the subject than most of the market. I think I understand the risks and rewards of a company like Tesla better than the overall market. And you will never convince me that I'm wrong about that unless Tesla went through a three-year period with performance so poor it made the stock price today justifiable in hindsight. And I don't believe for a minute that's going to happen. But that difference between what an investor thinks will happen and what the market thinks will happen is almost entirely what determines how that investor will perform relative to the market.

I've found situations like the one we have with Tesla, when there is a large disparity between what I think is most likely to happen and what the market thinks is most likely to happen, is where the surest and highest returns are. Specifically, I think the market thinks legacy auto will 'catch up' to Tesla and be able to match their production efficiency while I think you would have to be on crack to believe that. And I can say the exact same thing about Tesla's corporate efficiency which is just a different side of the same coin. These two factors, I believe, are what guarantees Tesla's ability to continue selling every car they can make at a healthy profit far into the future. Tesla's other ventures are just a very thick frosting on the cake. I don't even like frosting, but this frosting is so thick it actually weighs more than the cake. And since that frosting is just a proxy for potential future profits, I'll take as much of it as I can get!
 
Sigh

 
To all the hopefuls here:

This is not about Putin and Ukraine. This is not about MM's and the evil Hedge Funds. This is not TSLA specific or only insofar as TSLA has been the most overhyped stock in the last years.

This bear market is just about the tightening financial conditions and the subsequently changed narrative. US equities in private hands is the highest since 2000, and private hands are weak hands. Call buyers are even weaker hands because calls will expire worthless and the underlying hedge will be sold into a weak market. Think about it.

Of course, no one of the still-bulls will agree and believe. And I don't care at all. But the time to load up will be here when those cry uncle. This will not be tomorrow, this will be in a couple of months, after the rate hikes have been done.

I've said this again and again. Understandably, not many will be able to swallow this.
No, time to load up was years ago when Tesla was scaling production for the Model 3 that had a waiting list around the block and the stock hadn't broken out yet. Or many years prior to that by the many wise ones who invested and helped Tesla through a longterm trial by fire. Everything now is just short-term noise that will be barely visible on an ascending chart a year or two from now...
 
Why would fusion be a threat to Tesla Energy? It's precisely the missing piece. A technology that can efficiently, even if wildly expensively, generate 20-30% of total energy demand fills the renewables gap perfectly. Tesla Energy ties it all together and manages the flow.

We need to get our minds out of the fossil fuels scarcity model. There will be no scarcity in 2030, it's all about who delivers efficiency and scalable services to support sustainable abundance.
I truly hope that turns out to be true at least at some level!

BTW, in support of your point about not understanding "beyond scarcity", I ran across this gem (/s) in the financial media (CNN business)
Simply building and selling electric cars, or providing subsidies for the people who make and buy them, isn't enough. Electric cars need batteries the same way combustion cars need fuel -- and the metal in those batteries can be just as precious and hard to get as gas.
--emphasis added is mine.

Do EV's "burn" batteries the same way ICE's burn fuel? (insert requisite Chevy Bolt joke here) How can someone allegedly in the industry actually write that with a straight face??? Batteries are the gas tank, not the fuel, morons. And we are talking a highly recyclable gas tank, it is beginning to appear, making the entire EV model orders of magnitude less extractive and destructive over a scale of decades... SMH

Anyway the article isn't awful once past that terrible misunderstanding at the start, even mentions Tesla's foresight in securing raw materials; here it is if anyone cares. Mostly about supply chains and batteries and how we don't have much of that here in the USA.

 
You mean there is absolute 0 correlation when TMC members decide to sell their positions and $TSLA SP goes up or vice versa when we buy and $TSLA SP goes down???? 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔
I don't know... I sold some TSLA for the first time ever last November and look at what had happened to the stock price.

Now I just need to find a magical couch or two so I can buy more shares and turn things around.
 
Well we broke the magic 200 DMA. What happens now? If history is our guide, mmmm, not much.

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I don't know... I sold some TSLA for the first time ever last November and look at what had happened to the stock price.

Now I just need to find a magical couch or two so I can buy more shares and turn things around.

As I recall, as soon as you sold, the price shot up! I think you needed to sell more shares to have had the effect you think.
 
If I were a well financed interest opposing Tesla, this is exactly what I would have done. Entice Tesla to build a factory in a shiny target, wait for Tesla to commit a large amount of capital and time into building the factory, then one-by-one throw every delay possible at the factory to stop it from producing.

I don't doubt Tesla will succeed but nothing that is happening in Berlin is surprising me. Austin will be humming along before Berlin gets past the roadblocks.
I agree 100%. When I first heard the news of the selection of Berlin for a Giga, I thought, "really"? Why would Germany welcome Tesla with open arms, when there is little doubt that Tesla will demolish an industry that represents about 20-25% of it's GDP. I calmed down by telling myself that Elon knows more than I do and wouldn't walk into what may be a trap. We'll see.