Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Bit odd they only (from my reading of a teardown) put a 256GB drive in the new Ryzen computer then... the largest of games won't fit on that, and there's a good dozen or so more you couldn't fit 2 of in that space. AAA PC games are getting stupidly large anymore, and SSD storage is pretty cheap.... like going from a 256 to a 1TB drive costs less than one new video game does, even at retail prices.... though I suppose chip shortages might've forced the 256gb choice on them for now.

Yep, they'd need more like 1TB, but remember it is runtime size that is important and that size is much smaller. Install could be on an external drive. USB C transfer times would be > 1 minute

Anywho, better for the engineering thread...

26 Of The Biggest PC Games By File Size, Ranked

Which PC game is going to take up the biggest slice of your hard drive? These are. Here are the ten biggest PC games according to their file size.

gamerant.com

 

[jhm]

Despite the chronic underestimation of the FSD timeline, as a person who has implemented “real world AI”, Musk’s competence and confidence when talking about FSD gives me warm fuzzies.

And dollar signs dancing in my head.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496290695694495753

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496288046832140288

The harder the problem, the bigger the mote. Few will cross these waters.

 

[Ogre]

I feel like we are about to turn a corner and Austin factory/opening anticipation, coupled with Q1 results anticipation, will pull the stock higher. I believe the Austin event was moved from the 1st to the 7th in part to be able to reference the Q1 deliveries numbers during the event. (if it had been on April 1st there would have been no ability to know the numbers on the day)

Evolution of an Oracle

I feel like we’re about to turn a corner with Musks selling over…

The 12/9 split is going to be the end of this pain.…

Once the Chinese 4Q numbers come out this ship will turn…

After the earnings report SP is going to the moon…

Once Giga Texas opens, SP will be Giga…



(After it finally turns)

See I called it!

 

[StealthP3D]

It will bleed for the months to come. Not Ukraine, but the end of a 13 year long overblown bull cycle, caused by tightening of financial conditions.

If a recession happens due to overly aggressive tightening, you will see something truly amazing happening right before your eyes.

Automakers typically have to cut production in recessionary times because a lower number of total cars are sold. Tesla will continue to expand production and sell every car they can make. Investors will see first-hand why they want to own a company like TSLA that is just starting to enter the beginning part of the steep part of the S curve, an S curve that is driven in a large part by favorable economics of ownership, even at current high auto prices. Labor costs will not grow out of control in a recessionary economy and economic conditions will reduce demand for and cap prices of raw materials The chip shortage will evaporate. Investors will see that only Tesla is able to thrive under such an environment because only they have enough room to cut prices as much as necessary to undercut competitors, grow production, and still remain solidly profitable.

Tesla only has 2% of the automotive market. Fewer cars are sold in recessions, but people do not stop buying new cars altogether, only Tesla will continue to grow and gain automotive market share due to more favorable economics and desirability.

Most stocks do not perform well in a recession, particularly legacy auto stocks, but the companies best positioned to weather the storm and grow revenues and profits in a recessionary environment will stand out to investors as the stocks to own. And Tesla is solidly in this category. Tesla is the only automaker who has been doing their homework and this will become even more apparent if there is a recession. Having said all that, I'm not convinced the economy is set-up to enter a real recession of any great significance but it's nice to see thaat Tesla is amongst the best prepared to weather any storm.

A recession would hasten the transition to sustainable transport because it would reduce the number of new ICE vehicles put on the road.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I agree 100%. When I first heard the news of the selection of Berlin for a Giga, I thought, "really"? Why would Germany welcome Tesla with open arms, when there is little doubt that Tesla will demolish an industry that represents about 20-25% of it's GDP. I calmed down by telling myself that Elon knows more than I do and wouldn't walk into what may be a trap. We'll see.

In times like these, I find it reassuring to read the prophetic words written by EV-evangelist and part-time poet Jack Rickard:

"It looks like the oil companies and automakers have no possibility of losing this one. In reality, they have no way to win it. One man has them totally surrounded, outnumbered, and outgunned. Elon Musk."​

Bravaria is an island, and the seas are rising. It'll soon be sink'or'swim time in the Black Forest. Tesla is the tide.

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

My TD Acct now shows +1.02% and it's in that cool color too. Maybe it's a sign.
I think it's actually 1.04% for Tesla as I'm not 100% in, but close enough.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I haven't seen the color green in so long that I no longer remember what it looks like.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Let's get one thing straight. The black forest is part of the German state Baden-Württemberg. And it also is home to Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Stats from 2018 show 233k employed in the automotive industry in BW vs 208k in Bavaria.
Bavaria is obviously the flashing target because of BMWs freedom of choice nonsense, but others can lose a whole lot too.

 

[SOULPEDL]

A lawyer friend of mine with expertise in areas related to Elon’s latest court filings was able to weigh in on the allegations of a leak by the SEC. He thinks the whole thing is quite interesting and that the ranges of potential outcomes are wide. I’ll list the possible outcomes for the whole ordeal, not in a particularly logical order.

• If the evidence sent to the IG is weak, this might blow up in Elon’s face a bit.
• The evidence will likely be viewed with strong skepticism by the IG. It’s being brought in an adversarial manner. Usually (I think) the IG is contacted by employees.
• Musk and his attorney probably would not have contacted the IG if they didn’t have good evidence, but we can’t be sure.
• Judge Nathan may be able to promote the IG investigation in a legal way I didn’t understand — but, again, it all falls on the quality of the evidence.
• The “leak” and the source and impact of the “leak” could stir a reaction that ranges from “yeah the SEC did something wrong but it’s not THAT big of a deal” to “okay we need a few fundamental changes in SEC communications oversight.”
• This could be the first domino to fall in a much bigger conspiracy.

I have no idea how to weight any of these possibilities, but I’ll stress again that it seems unlikely (from what I was told) that Spiro would send this stuff out without thinking it made sense, legally.

If any other lawyers here can weigh in, that would be helpful.

I wonder if David Misler is involved, the former SEC Trial Lawyer hired recently by Tesla. That can't make the SEC warm and fuzzy. David probably has names and dates, although probably not allow to make anything public. But in private, they could all be cooking up something really good. Possibly bad for the stock short-term, but I would welcome some truths revealed.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I haven't seen the color green in so long that I no longer remember what it looks like.

Hint: It's your avatar "U" are green.

 

[jbcarioca]

This statement startled me because if true it would be huge news and a threat to Tesla Energy. However, it is not true, according to a New Scientist article from last week:

Perhaps you might want to understand the source:

Fusion world | JET makes history, again

The JET tokamak has achieved a first-ever sustained, high-confinement plasma using the same wall materials and fuel mix that ITER will use. The results aligned[...]

www.iter.org

It is indeed ‘huge news’. Given that my post was about possible future disruption of the status quo, this accomplishment, sustained energy production in a tokamok, followed the first demonstration of fusion power production in 1991.

What has happened proves that the physics works in a man-made device. Sustainable happened this year announced this month. Nobody knows how long it may be before there might be commercial production, probably not in my lifetime. ITER has proven it indeed can be done.

Now it is engineering. I repeat, nobody knows when this will be commercial. As usual with ‘impossible’ things that are known to be feasible, eventually we now can have a really clean nuclear energy source.

 

[jbcarioca]

Now you know how big oil and legacy car makers think.

Not from this, you don't

The Fusion plant with have a construction cost, and operating life, maintenance schedules, and operational costs, all of which factor into LCOE.
Then there is the question of scale and any transmission upgrades.

But mostly it is a solution for 2040-2060 at best, not something relevant to between now and 2030.

People underestimate what can be done with solar and batteries, batteries can store solar for transmission 24x7, making optimal use of transmission assets.

To cope with Solar seasonal variation in the Australian state of Victoria they would need a total of 9X, Simply building X in Victoria and 2X in Queensland does the same job, (before transmission losses). That is because winter solar generation in Queensland is way better than Victoria.

So it is similar to solid state batteries, the funky new technology will be great when it arrives, in the meantime there are many opportunities to solve the problem with existing technologies or improved versions of existing technologies.

Even if Fusion represented some threat to Tesla energy by say 2050, there is a lot of opportunity for Tesla energy to make money between now and 2050 and every chance Tesla will be further diversified by 2050.

For solar it would be great to take energy from more of the spectrum, and have some ability to generate electricity on cloudy days. That isn't science fiction, the proprieties of the light spectrum are well known, currently we only tap a small portion of it. Would this improved solar arrive before Fusion? IMO Yes.

zero doubt in my mind that you’re correct. The quippey comment might be “the perfect is the enemy of the excellent”. That is excellent logic for HODL.

 

[avoigt]

This keeps coming up. I think the recent video by @avoigt should be required viewing for everyone wanting to talk about Giga Berlin, as he is one of the most authoritative voices on the subject. He doesn't think subsequent expansions will be subject to the same scrutiny. If Alex, who has enough credibility - with his understanding of German bureaucracy and sources close to the process - thinks that way, that's good enough for me unless new information comes to light to dictate otherwise.

Thanks for your kind words with regards to my video.

It was a spontaneous decision to publish again after the FUD and misinformation of media got through even to Tesla supporters and bulls. There are still a lot of misperceptions out there about Giga Berlin and its regulation and I work every day to counter them with information and fact on Twitter.

 

[avoigt]

Thanks to @avoigt :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496159971410653191

To be fair to Gary, and after heated tweets and an longer exchange over private message in which he addressed me, I believe his tweet was simply poorly worded and he meant to say that this is what Bloomberg claims. Regardless, my tweet did generate some interest, which again shows me how poorly informed most are about Giga Berlin.

Still, I don't think it's a good idea to repeat the MSM's FUD - they simply don't have a clue. Regulations and laws and processes are complicated for outsiders to understand and they want simple answers. Many tend to say it is the fault of the German government or their corruption, but the truth is more complex and actually and IMO has nothing to do with either of them.

Given the interest in this topic, I may record another video on Giga Berlin or host a Q&A session on Spaces or Clubhouse.

 

[OrthoSurg]

If a recession happens due to overly aggressive tightening, you will see something truly amazing happening right before your eyes.

Automakers typically have to cut production in recessionary times because a lower number of total cars are sold. Tesla will continue to expand production and sell every car they can make. Investors will see first-hand why they want to own a company like TSLA that is just starting to enter the beginning part of the steep part of the S curve, an S curve that is driven in a large part by favorable economics of ownership, even at current high auto prices. Labor costs will not grow out of control in a recessionary economy and economic conditions will reduce demand for and cap prices of raw materials The chip shortage will evaporate. Investors will see that only Tesla is able to thrive under such an environment because only they have enough room to cut prices as much as necessary to undercut competitors, grow production, and still remain solidly profitable.

Tesla only has 2% of the automotive market. Fewer cars are sold in recessions, but people do not stop buying new cars altogether, only Tesla will continue to grow and gain automotive market share due to more favorable economics and desirability.

Most stocks do not perform well in a recession, particularly legacy auto stocks, but the companies best positioned to weather the storm and grow revenues and profits in a recessionary environment will stand out to investors as the stocks to own. And Tesla is solidly in this category. Tesla is the only automaker who has been doing their homework and this will become even more apparent if there is a recession. Having said all that, I'm not convinced the economy is set-up to enter a real recession of any great significance but it's nice to see thaat Tesla is amongst the best prepared to weather any storm.

A recession would hasten the transition to sustainable transport because it would reduce the number of new ICE vehicles put on the road.

This is the first time reading a post makes me wish for a recession.

 

[Huskyf]

Great letter from a Woman in Tesla about is job

Shelley Xueying Chen on LinkedIn: #productmanagement #tesla | 192 comments

Ten years ago, I did not know anything about working in tech or building a life in silicon valley. At age of 15, I boarded my flight to the United States not… | 192 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reporting on an email from Elon Musk to CNBC, Andrew Ross Sorkin lays down some rare truth: "it's a Union story".

Elon Musk says President Biden has 'pointedly ignored' Tesla | CNBC on YouTube

 

[Krugerrand]

Great letter from a Woman in Tesla about is job

Shelley Xueying Chen on LinkedIn: #productmanagement #tesla | 192 comments

Ten years ago, I did not know anything about working in tech or building a life in silicon valley. At age of 15, I boarded my flight to the United States not… | 192 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

Don’t be ridiculous. That’s a totally fake account. Everyone knows Tesla embraces racism and sexism and Elon Musk is an evil, tyrannical billionaire. I’ve seen dozens of media reports about broad discrimination going on at Tesla, even with their sub contractors. So much so, one sub contractor filed a lawsuit while simultaneously encouraging family members to work there. Stop posting such nonsense here and making this place an echo chamber.

Mod: @Krugerrand is too sarcastic to need /s! However too many readers are sarcasm challenged, which is fair enough if they're not native English speakers, so here it is: /s. No discussion needed.--ggr

 

[Featsbeyond50]

If a recession happens due to overly aggressive tightening, you will see something truly amazing happening right before your eyes.

Automakers typically have to cut production in recessionary times because a lower number of total cars are sold. Tesla will continue to expand production and sell every car they can make. Investors will see first-hand why they want to own a company like TSLA that is just starting to enter the beginning part of the steep part of the S curve, an S curve that is driven in a large part by favorable economics of ownership, even at current high auto prices. Labor costs will not grow out of control in a recessionary economy and economic conditions will reduce demand for and cap prices of raw materials The chip shortage will evaporate. Investors will see that only Tesla is able to thrive under such an environment because only they have enough room to cut prices as much as necessary to undercut competitors, grow production, and still remain solidly profitable.

Tesla only has 2% of the automotive market. Fewer cars are sold in recessions, but people do not stop buying new cars altogether, only Tesla will continue to grow and gain automotive market share due to more favorable economics and desirability.

Most stocks do not perform well in a recession, particularly legacy auto stocks, but the companies best positioned to weather the storm and grow revenues and profits in a recessionary environment will stand out to investors as the stocks to own. And Tesla is solidly in this category. Tesla is the only automaker who has been doing their homework and this will become even more apparent if there is a recession. Having said all that, I'm not convinced the economy is set-up to enter a real recession of any great significance but it's nice to see thaat Tesla is amongst the best prepared to weather any storm.

A recession would hasten the transition to sustainable transport because it would reduce the number of new ICE vehicles put on the road.

And a microcosm of this was seen at year end. Customers were putting their orders on hold, right and left, in the hopes of receiving BBB rebate (I was one), yet Tesla was still selling every car they made. For every buyer who might cancel. there are ten standing in line ready to take that car.

 

[Hock1]

A lawyer friend of mine with expertise in areas related to Elon’s latest court filings was able to weigh in on the allegations of a leak by the SEC. He thinks the whole thing is quite interesting and that the ranges of potential outcomes are wide. I’ll list the possible outcomes for the whole ordeal, not in a particularly logical order.

• If the evidence sent to the IG is weak, this might blow up in Elon’s face a bit.
• The evidence will likely be viewed with strong skepticism by the IG. It’s being brought in an adversarial manner. Usually (I think) the IG is contacted by employees.
• Musk and his attorney probably would not have contacted the IG if they didn’t have good evidence, but we can’t be sure.
• Judge Nathan may be able to promote the IG investigation in a legal way I didn’t understand — but, again, it all falls on the quality of the evidence.
• The “leak” and the source and impact of the “leak” could stir a reaction that ranges from “yeah the SEC did something wrong but it’s not THAT big of a deal” to “okay we need a few fundamental changes in SEC communications oversight.”
• This could be the first domino to fall in a much bigger conspiracy.

I have no idea how to weight any of these possibilities, but I’ll stress again that it seems unlikely (from what I was told) that Spiro would send this stuff out without thinking it made sense, legally.

If any other lawyers here can weigh in, that would be helpful.

IANAL. But IMO, Elon has leverage over the SEC in any legal battle that may ensue due to actions or non-actions that stem from the 420 tweet and the terms of the settlement. Go back and think about what happened after the tweet: the SEC held a huge, televised press conference to announce the claims against Elon/Tesla. They claimed that his actions were so egregious that he should never again be allowed to be an officer of a public company. The tenor of the presentation was like they had captured Al Capone. They even had a list of 5 or 6 people from the SF office of the SEC that they congratulated for their heroic work to bring Elon to justice. Sounded like it was the end of Elon but, wait, within a few short days a settlement was announced. As we know, it was a payments of $20M each from Elon and Tesla, removal of Elon as COB and behavioral reins on Elon. Doesn't this seem like a huge win for Elon and Tesla, relative to the severity and enormity of Elon's actions, as portrayed by the SEC. I think there's a good chance that Elon has knowledge of one or more of those SEC "heroes" colluding with the shorts. I don't have a copy of the complaint against Elon/Tesla but, in reading or listening to it, it sounds exactly like it was written by the shorts. Don't forget, just about every conflict or battle Elon gets into, he crushes the opponent. There is no way he would take on the SEC unless he has an unbeatable hole card. JMO