Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Man, that is some glorious movement up from the 700 low at open.

Fun Fact:

Today, Feb 24, 2022 was the highest intraday price spread (14.6%) since Nov 10, 2021 (16.1%).

Does that date sound familiar? Why yes, it does. According to Elon's SEC filings, Nov 10, 2021 was the first day on which he sold TSLA shares on the open Market.

The ironic part? Elon didn't file the SEC form for 3 days afterward. Somebody knew that Elon was selling, and was front-running his stock sales. Somebody big enough to move 60M shares in a single day.

Maybe somebody big enough to afford a "leaker" mole inside the SEC with access to Elon's filed-but-confidential 105b-1 sale plan.

How fun is that?

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

What I'm wondering is that when the approval is granted, what becomes of the cars that were made prior to the approval? What can/has to be done to these cars to make them sell-able? If anything...That is the language that is pertinent.

The old Ship of Theseus paradox.

Swap the VIN numbers of all the vehicles and then they are new sell-able cars? Change everything except the VIN number and they are new sell-able cars? (Elon Twitter Theseus tweet June 2021)

 

[willow_hiller]

Waited until after hours to post this (didn't want to jinx anything). I haven't been able to buy any shares since May last year, but this morning was too tempting to resist. Can't trade premarket, but I put in an order at 9:29 AM and crossed my fingers:



Never caught a daily low to the penny before!

 

[CHGolferJim]

Elons stock sale plan was filed in September, but was not public at that time.

The 10% sale tweet was November.

Would Elon’s plan require board approval, e.g., Compensation Committee, and might open windows for sales by board members be the same?

 

[samppa]

What I'm wondering is that when the approval is granted, what becomes of the cars that were made prior to the approval? What can/has to be done to these cars to make them sell-able? If anything...That is the language that is pertinent.

do some quick disassembly/assembly, like they used to do with S/X in Tilburg?

 

[SOULPEDL]

@Todesbuckler ninjaed me (us?)

Ah, but here's the thing (based on my reading). It does not say they must be destroyed, only that, if they are destoyed, paper work is created.
So the cars are not salable, but could continue to exist. At least as display models (and *maybe* as demo/ loaners/ internal fleet).

I was thinking just restock the parts, and reassemble. Parking Lot -> Stores -> Assembly.
Besides, I hear Elon's good at disassembling things.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How long will it take authorities to decide where Tesla can dump/discard the parts from the test vehicles

Too weaks.

Local companies like Daimler, BMW, VW, etc. could split them up between themselves to, ahem, destroy.

I hear GM has experience crushing EVs. Too bad they don't make them anymore.

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

The old Ship of Theseus paradox.

Swap the VIN numbers of all the vehicles and then they are new sell-able cars? Change everything except the VIN number and they are new sell-able cars?

do some quick disassembly/assembly, like they used to do with S/X in Tilburg?

I was thinking just restock the parts, and reassemble. Parking Lot -> Stores -> Assembly.
Besides, I hear Elon's good at disassembling things.

Those plans don't work, the permit calls out the parts themselves are non salable, not just the finished car.
Called out here, and in the previous translation.

German here:
Can confirm that Tesla is not allowed to sell cars produced during this testing phase at Giga Berlin. Furthermore, Tesla is not allowed to sell parts or car bodies produced during the testing phase as a part of a car. Tesla also has to provide documentation to a governmental agency about the whereabouts of produced parts. In case of a disposal, Tesla has to provide more detailed paperwork.

So, based on my reading: Tesla is not allowed to sell the cars, but they are also not specifically required to destroy them. However, I really don't know how they could be used otherwise (maybe as a transportation vehicle on side).

@avoigt let us know if I missed something important here.

 

[Tyler34]

Fun Fact:

Today, Feb 24, 2022 was the highest intraday price spread (14.6%) since Nov 10, 2021 (16.1%).

Does that date sound familiar? Why yes, it does. According to Elon's SEC filings, Nov 10, 2021 was the first day on which he sold TSLA shares on the open Market.

The ironic part? Elon didn't file the SEC form for 3 days afterward. Somebody know Elon was selling, and was front-running his stock sales. Somebody big enough to move 60M shares in a single day.

Maybe somebody big enough to afford a "leak" from inside the SEC about Elon's impending sales.

How fun is that?

By "leak" do you mean Elon tweeting that he would be doing it just a couple of days earlier?

 

[samppa]

Those plans don't work, the permit calls out the parts themselves are non salable, not just the finished car.
Called out here, and in the previous translation.

Could the parts be used in warranty repairs? That's not technically selling them..

Can they use these cars in traffic, like for ranger service etc?

 

[hitchhiker]

Over 1000 Model Y's have been made in Germany, maybe they could be used to haul water from the Baltic Sea

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496916239301718024

Since they can't be sold... first 1000 robotaxis in Europe?

 

[Singuy]

By "leak" do you mean Elon tweeting that he would be doing it just a couple of days earlier?

I think leak by Form 4 submitted prior to his poll. I don't remember, but there was a day last year when we saw huge amount of put premium skyrocket to weird unnatural levels. Not sure if this was part of the leak or not.

 

[JustSaying]

@Todesbuckler ninjaed me (us?)

Ah, but here's the thing (based on my reading). It does not say they must be destroyed, only that, if they are destoyed, paper work is created.
So the cars are not salable, but could continue to exist. At least as display models (and *maybe* as demo/ loaners/ internal fleet).

My Dad, a Honda Exec, had an early pre mass production Honda Prelude that could not be sold by Honda. He drove it for a year in CA (California) with MFG plates.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Wrong guy to leak about:
Going Beyond the Canary Trap

So let me get this straight…

Musk to Judge: SEC is leaking info
Judge: Give me something actionable
WSJ: SEC sources tell us…

 

[BobbyKings]

Those plans don't work, the permit calls out the parts themselves are non salable, not just the finished car.
Called out here, and in the previous translation.

Why worry so much about these 2.000 cars? Yes it is waste, but in the grand scheme of things only less than half a day of current Tesla global production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

By "leak" do you mean Elon tweeting that he would be doing it just a couple of days earlier?

Elon never tweeted when he would be doing the sales. He only asked people's opinion on whether he should. No one should have known it was Elon selling until he filled the Form 4 with the SEC about 3 days afterward.

Further, he never did "sell 10% of his shares", it was more like 1% of the shares he owned going into Nov, on which he would pay only the 20% Capital Gains tax.

For all the rest of his sales, Elon sold the legal minimum required to pay the ~52% income tax due at the time of excerise for his vested stock options from his 2012 CEO compensation plan. Elon never got a penny of those sales in cash, he only got the ownership of the shares (which were down ~40% in value at the Open this a.m.)

It was in fact the Gov't that got all the cash from Elon's stock sales thru the remainer of Nov/Dec '21, to the tune of roughly $15B in taxes withheld by his broker, then paid to the G. And promptly denied by Sen. Karen.

 

[mongo]

Re insider trading.
It has been publicly known since the vesting of the 2012 CEO Plan tranches (well, most of them) that Elon would be selling shares to fund their exercise (well, most of them) and that it would occur before August of 2022.
It's iffy that even if one knew the exact timing of the sale whether that would be material information as the exercise should not be a stock moving event. Indeed, post sale stock price was on par with pre-sale.
Nor can I find a source to say insider trades are themselves material information. Were the sale of stock done in order to effect the price, that itself would be a violation. So, to peg Kimbal with trading based on MNPI would require proving Elon was intending to manipulate the stock price. Given Elon's sale were negatively impacted by the stock movement, that seems a tough case to make.

[Edit: this was focused at the 10b5-1 plan, but the premise applies to any sales]

 

[mongo]

Why worry so much about these 2.000 cars? Yes it is waste, but in the grand scheme of things only less than half a day of current Tesla global production.

Not worry, we are just trying to understanding what these cars could represent (we wonder about things a lot):
Salable product waiting for approval (like Austin)
Non-salable product Tesla can use internally (like display models/ test/ loaners)
Non-salable but good product that is required to be scrapped (sadness)
Non-conforming product that must be scrapped (line bring up)

 

[Singuy]

Re insider trading.
It has been publicly known since the vesting of the 2012 CEO Plan tranches (well, most of them) that Elon would be selling shares to fund their exercise (well, most of them) and that it would occur before August of 2022.
It's iffy that even if one knew the exact timing of the sale whether that would be material information as the exercise should not be a stock moving event. Indeed, post sale stock price was on par with pre-sale.
Nor can I find a source to say insider trades are themselves material information. Were the sale of stock done in order to effect the price, that itself would be a violation. So, to peg Kimbal with trading based on MNPI would require proving Elon was intending to manipulate the stock price. Given Elon's sale were negatively impacted by the stock movement, that seems a tough case to make.

Elon did intent on manipulating the stock price....downward with his poll...lol
In fact the entire saga was very theatrical, perhaps intended to put pressure on the stock price so no one can say he secretly sold at a high, hence why Gary B was extremely vocal about it.

 

[mongo]

So let me get this straight…

Musk to Judge: SEC is leaking info
Judge: Give me something actionable
WSJ: SEC sources tell us…

The leak allegation is being handled by the IG @ SEC.
Judge Nathan was more saying the door is open for Elon to submit proof of the SEC issuing subpoenas related to this case, as that is a violation of the settlement.