Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

I thinks that's what you'd do if you were concerned about demand, and didn't have a 1+ year order backlog.


Not trivial to reduce the size of the battery. Hint: the cells are STRUCTURAL ie: missing cells compromise the strength of the battery pack. Software limiting cost money, since the pack costs the same even with reduced allowed performance.


No large advantage to rolling out the same car everywere, when pricing can easily differentiate between models. It's mainly performance that sells. Tesla won't hold back the leading edge of performance, same way Intel made the 486 chip and the Penitum at the same time.

The target is not Model Y from Fremont, it BMW X5 from Chattanooga.

I disagree for a few reasons.

>> As @mongo mentioned above, I think the structural function of the cells could be very well be replicated by simpler, less expensive means. They could probably just use the cell cans without any jelly roll inside. or better yet, add some structurally equivalent element instead.

>> Price discrimination is the large advantage of limiting a pack either with software or fewer cells. Some customers appreciate performance more, and some other customers are more price-sensitive. It's best to find a way to convince the performance-lovers to spend more while also luring in the deal-seekers. Tesla is pretty close to being a monopoly at this point, so they can do this without market competition suppressing this business tactic. Splitting the product into multiple tiers of performance helps Tesla maximize overall revenue and profit by increasing the total addressable market while keeping average selling price high. Also, this still applies even when there's an order backlog.

>> The target for Model Y is MUCH bigger than the BMW X5 which merely sold 90k units in the US & Canada last year. Model Y is singlehandedly going after the combined efforts of the RAV-4, CR-V, Rogue, Escape, Tucson, CX-5 and Tiguan. This is a dominant product. Elon said recently, in no uncertain terms, that they expect Model Y to be the best selling car/truck model in the world soon, implying more than 1.2 million annual sales to top the Corolla. But they're not going to stop there. Someday, Tesla will have enough production capacity and efficiency to start dropping prices on the Y, thereby sacrificing some margin to access a much bigger market. Mass-market variants of this vehicle costing $35-50k (with around 20% gross margin before including software and supercharging) could sell probably 3+ million annually. Honestly, once Model Y is $20k cheaper to buy and better than the ones on sale today, what is stopping it from claiming at least half of the entire global crossover market?

 

[Tyler34]

Calm down everyone, Jeff Bezos is rivian's customer, not these former reservation holders. They were just there to give a loan and prop up the ipo.

 

[Discoducky]

And Doug Field knows vehicle stamping, production and mfging?

He does, but I highly doubt he'll have the ability to move as fast as he wants due to legacy management thinking, huge capital investments and just different ways of operating.

Imagine sitting in front of Ford management and saying, everything you know about making cars is dead and now, we need to move as fast as possible to not only make huge giga chassis casting machines, but also in tandem hire some super expensive software engineers, AI talent and actual battery engineers.

I just don't see this happening and even if it does, what leading engineer is going to Ford? Hows that going to look on your resume in two years when you are looking for a job. But people told me that when I went to Tesla from XBOX. So, time will tell.

 

[deffu]

Is the permit expected this week building permit or final production permit?

 

[RobDickinson]

Calm down everyone, Jeff Bezos is rivian's customer, not these former reservation holders. They were just there to give a loan and prop up the ipo.

Yet what 12 days after the IPO Amazon order vans from elsewhere. ?

 

[RobDickinson]

Is the permit expected this week building permit or final production permit?

For Berlin? Final permit afik

 

[woodisgood]

There's something to be said for honesty…

Lucid admits in regulatory filing they may never turn a profit

Lucid Group has issued a stark warning to investors and customers in its latest 10-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In the regulatory filing published on February 28, 2022, Lucid admits [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

In the regulatory filing published on February 28, 2022, Lucid admits something they have before, namely that they “do not expect to achieve positive cash flow from operations for several years.”
…
But they added three key words to the end of that statement that paints a bleak picture for the company’s future – “if at all.”

“We do not expect to achieve positive cash flow from operations for several years, if at all.”

I hate it when I accidentally type out my inside thoughts!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

For Berlin? Final permit afik

I’ve seen both of those answers now. I though it was just the construction permit but maybe that cascades the production permit.

Ojala.

 

[deffu]

I’ve seen both of those answers now. I though it was just the construction permit but maybe that cascades the production permit.

Ojala.

i guess we need to ask u.s. intelligence. I heard they r pretty accurate nowdays

 

[Usain]

I think Tesla should build an easy to setup power system

2-4 solar panels + cables + inverter + 2-4kwh battery (daisy chainable?)

Something enough to keep a starlink and a few laptops going 24/7

Lots of companies make those. A Tesla branded kit like that would be cool but it wouldn't be worth it for a company Tesla's size.

 

[Usain]

Abandon ship!

Looks like Warren Redlich was right. He's been saying Lucid is a fraud for a long time.

 

[insaneoctane]

F is up 8.4% today. Ridiculous. I really don't get it....but then maybe I know too much...

 

[RobDickinson]

Market likes established auto making strong moves to improve things. That its all smoke and mirrors doesnt matter

 

[ZachF]

Well this is relevant. How is Tesla investing over $36 Billion and in what time frame?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498858611241635843

Tesla ‘s CAPEX expenditure was $8 billion last year and it will probably be $13b+ this year, and growing at 50% per year.

 

[JRP3]

Looks like Warren Redlich was right. He's been saying Lucid is a fraud for a long time.

Production problems don't equal fraud. Tesla prime example.

 

[StealthP3D]

Isn't 10Q designed to be doom and gloom spelling out all positive risks? Tesla's 10Q is not exactly flowers and roses either.

The 10Q's of Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Costco and Wynn Resorts isn't flowers and roses either. Hardly anyone reads 10Q's anyway. They should, but they don't.

That would be funny if Wynn Resorts 10Q under risks said "The odds are in the houses favor. Taken in the aggregate, the house always wins."

 

[Usain]

Production problems don't equal fraud. Tesla prime example.

It's fraud if you take investor's money while knowing that you will never make a profit.

I'm not a Redlich fan and I haven't followed him that closely. I just know he's been describing Lucid as a fraud for quite some time.

 

[JRP3]

It's fraud if you take investor's money while knowing that you will never make a profit.

I'm not a Redlich fan and I haven't followed him that closely. I just know he's been describing Lucid as a fraud for quite some time.

Tesla didn't know if they would make a profit or even survive for a while. Redlich has used flawed reasoning based on lack of technical knowledge to support his opinion. He may end up being correct but not because of accurate insight.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Time for Elon to up his security.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499194255688019971

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

F is up 8.4% today. Ridiculous. I really don't get it....but then maybe I know too much...

But F is only $18. That's such a good deal compared to TSLA's price at $870. I know people think that way, and that's the only explanation for F's performance that makes sense to me. I wonder how much of a factor dumb retail investors are. I know, probably not much.