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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Never try to catch a falling knife — Anon Tesla investor with bleeding hands — Many dates
I remember freaking out about catching a falling knife when TSLA was a split-adjusted $50 a share…

All this market and world action is depressing, but on the other hand I know it has nothing to do with Tesla’s execution, so I’m not too concerned.
 
A gang was just arrested in our subdivision for sawing off catalytic converters. If palladium prices go wild…

Anybody who tries that with my ICE car is going to get a nasty surprise. It's been idle for so long that the undercarriage has become infested with black widow spiders. (Really, it's bad.)
 
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I remember freaking out about catching a falling knife when TSLA was a split-adjusted $50 a share…

All this market and world action is depressing, but on the other hand I know it has nothing to do with Tesla’s execution, so I’m not too concerned.
My comment was mostly snark and a bit of commentary on short term thinking. Trying to get greedy and jump on a "bargain" can bite you if you go out on a limb.

I've seen a lot of comments here... dozens, maybe hundreds talking about buying more shares on margin. Also, Plenty of comments about selling shares and buying calls. I've personally done some silly things with options short term myself so not looking down my nose at anyone.

Here's another comment from Buffett which comes to mind: “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
 
When you listen to Musk and analyze Tesla it’s pretty clear that they are trying to run as fast as they can, keep running into some bottle neck and then throw Elon and manpower at solving that specific bottle neck. Once fixed they expand and run into new bottle necks in different parts of the organization. For a while it was Model 3 ramp, then it was batteries, lately it has been semiconductors and FSD.

But every time this has happened, Tesla has come out much stronger and added even more vertical integration. I assume by now Tesla has become very very good at quickly replacing chips they don’t have enough supply of with some alternative. Because Elon and Tesla are frustrated, they want to ramp, and they feel the urgency as the world itself is might be on stake if we don’t solve global warming before it’s too late. And the goal of 20M vehicles/year is there so they might aswell make a long term solution now rather than run into them over and over again.

So imo, I think the latest supply chain issues are annoying, but Tesla are growing increasingly good at fixing these issues and they have the warchest to try to fix it.
 
I had previously discounted the paranoia about a recession, this jump in oil prices has me reconsidering.

Recessions are awful for auto companies. Not so awful if gas prices are sky high and your company only sells EVs though. My comparison vehicle is the one I would have purchased otherwise, an M3. In 2018 I figured I was saving about 2k a year in fuel costs. Gas is around 40% higher now than in 2018. There are more than a few people who are smart enough to do this math.


“Dang I wish I would have sold 10% at $1200.”
-Prunesquallor
If you had sold 10% at 1200 like I did, you would now be wishing you had added a zero, like I am.

Que Lastima!
 
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