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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Merkel's decision, as I recall, was in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Which occurred just about as we were collectively relegating the Chernobyl disaster to ancient "it could never happen again because we've learned so much" history. And really only just before "we hope Russian troops don't cause a meltdown at this reactor or damage the spent fuel containment pools as they invade Ukraine today" history-in-the-making.
I agree with what I interpret as Elon's stance: run the current nuclear reactors as long as possible. Their environmental and construction costs are largely - but not entirely - paid already and they produce a LOT of power.
I also agree with what I think is the rest of his stance, unsaid: shut them down and stop adding to the nuclear waste problem as quickly we get their output substituted by solar (Tesla), wind (other folks), and backstopped by battery (Tesla).
As a species globally, we have shown an inability to manage nuclear power as well as it must be managed over a period of decades to avoid global issues. We've done great percentage wise - many hundreds of reactor-years of use with no problems! [I've worked as an instrument communications consultant in a nuclear plant and understand the tech is reliable] Unfortunately, each _local_ reactor failure - human induced (which we've seen) or nature induced (which we've also seen) - is a regional problem at best and a global problem at worst. This is one of those endeavors where 99.9% good is not good enough over the long haul.
Electrify and decentralize, start recycling streams for the toxics, and we are way ahead of where nuclear could get us in terms of resilience and sustainability.
I am pretty sure Tesla is on board with this vision. As is Redwood and other upcoming players in this space.
Stay the course and HODL folks.
Dude, you freakin' stold my post!! This a million times! The science behind nuclear is solid, the tech improves, but humans are and always will be the fail point. And when we fail, the consequences are massive.
 
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Dude, you freakin' stold my post!! This a million times! The science behind nuclear is solid, the tech improves, but humans are and always be the fail point. And when we fail, the consequences are massive.
Exactly. No need for it in the future when solar/wind/ocean wave energy and battery storage can accomplish the same thing.
 
So imo, I think the latest supply chain issues are annoying, but Tesla are growing increasingly good at fixing these issues and they have the warchest to try to fix it.
That's a good take on things. On the last part, I have a suspicion Tesla could tap AMD again for more FPGA. AMD since the acquisition of Xilinx is going to be a powerhouse in FPGA with the combination of Xilinx's experience and AMD's all around architecture. The FSD chips are FPGA you know, and co-developed by Jim Keller an old AMD hat so there's a bit of commonality there.

 
I had previously discounted the paranoia about a recession, this jump in oil prices has me reconsidering.

Recessions are awful for auto companies. Not so awful if gas prices are sky high and your company only sells EVs though. My comparison vehicle is the one I would have purchased otherwise, an M3. In 2018 I figured I was saving about 2k a year in fuel costs. Gas is around 40% higher now than in 2018. There are more than a few people who are smart enough to do this math.



If you had sold 10% at 1200 like I did, you would now be wishing you had added a zero, like I am.

Que Lastima!
With 2 new Tesla factories ramping up more EVs are available, just at the time the world needs them.

Predicting what happens next is difficult, my hunch is that the war might be headed for a relatively quick resolution, and maybe part of that resolution is sanctions are quickly reversed, and things get a bit more back to normal, well for most of us..

The long term trend is less Fossil Fuel use, and IMO deflation, recent events will probably accelerate the long term trend,.
 

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Gee….I wonder if this stuff is just a wee bit rigged 🙃.

Good thing Tesla already covered their butts by signing multiple long term nickel (and lithium) agreements
Bloomberg has a good article about nickel supplies and market. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

It's behind paywall, but essentially:

- Two types of nickel, Class I (99.8% pure, less common), and Class II (widely available from SE Asia)
- Russia produces ~ 1/3 of Class I, which is more relevant for EV batteries
- however, Class II can be processed into Class I using newer methods, with Chinese plants in Indonesia ramping up for this
- Lots of Class II coming to market in near future
- Market prices mostly influenced by small volumes of surplus product, not producer-supplier contracts which account for bulk of trade
- Nickel is not scarce and a supply boom is underway
- Prior price spikes have been followed by returns to more normal levels after a few weeks
- Bottom line - no need to panic