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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You don't think it was strange to see metals and mining down 1.5% today?

It's now reversed by more than 3% in the last 35 mins.

I typically don't watch metals futures since I have zero intention of betting on them. I'm comfortable in the knowledge that Tesla has secured both it's short- and long-term requirements with production contracts.

IMO, the nickel spike yesterday was futures speculators trying to create a panick (same as they do every day). I ignored it.

Cheers!
 
I think you need to start looking at charts. Look at 5 year charts for SQ or SHOP for good examples of falling knives. When you see charts that look like that, keep your hands in your pockets.
SQ example drop looks like it was raining knives. That was ARKs favorite for a while, OUCH!
I certainly hope TSLA's at bottom and just bouncing around. But I don't see any clarity since 1200.

Remember 1,200 in Q4? What caused that to happen? Let's do that again!

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I've been following some of the nickel headlines, but this image gave perspective to them...


View attachment 778341


Even if Tesla has secured pricing, at what point do those contracts become uncertain because it's more economical to violate the contract than honor it? Extreme times.... extreme measures.
There's a difference between speculating trading/short squeeze vs companies that actually buys the products.

Tesla can announce they are going to use Iron only tomorrow and we will see nickel price drop to the floor overnight.
 
There's a difference between speculating trading/short squeeze vs companies that actually buys the products.

Tesla can announce they are going to use Iron only tomorrow and we will see nickel price drop to the floor overnight.
Yup, no company is going to buy any nickel at that super inflated price because it's an artificially high price due to derivatives/short squeeze. That's why trading got halted on it.

Besides, just because a company wants out of a contract doesn't mean they have any ability to just because they want to sell at the new higher price. That's the entire point of the contract. Also, most contracts that don't even have a set price have a 10% move cap built into it.

So in other words, this move in nickel doesn't mean anything. It might to anyone that hadn't secured supply in the past 1-2 years (cough Ford) but Tesla thought ahead in all these aspects.
 
What do we know about:
  • Tesla hedging activities for commodity inputs, esp. for batteries, to protect against price spikes related to inflation/Ukraine?
  • Roughly how much do those inputs cost per car?

I've don't recall Tesla ever purchasing hedges for commodities (only hedges for convertible bond issues). Telsa perfers to deal directly with the resource owner, and to secure long-term supply through contracts. Typical contract is 5 years supply.

Lol, Tesla will be buying nickle from SpaceX before too long (asteroid mining contracts).

Cheers!
 
An article from Clean Technica offers very good take on Russia invading Ukraine with high relevance to Tesla and Elon.
I do agree with a lot that's been said there. Recommended to broaden horizons for those who are interested.

Article - CleanTechnica
That's kind of a click baity, blaming Musk in a way for the war. It's kind of bizzaro.