Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tyler34]

Amazon and Ford Q1s are gonna be dumpster fires unless they only have to do their mark to market accounting annually instead of quarterly. Any accountants know what the mark to market rules are?

 

[EVNow]

That's not entirely surprising, they haven't delivered much at all yet to customers. All these delays will have a huge negative effect on them financially.

Just remember, Tesla used to have bad quarters too.

Just not as bad. Their accumulated losses already higher than Tesla’s highest (according to comments I saw, not verified).

 

[Singuy]

That's not entirely surprising, they haven't delivered much at all yet to customers. All these delays will have a huge negative effect on them financially.

Just remember, Tesla used to have bad quarters too.

Tesla was building 2 massive factories, expanding a world wide super charging stations and service centers, an energy division, an AI division, and a micro processor division with 10x the employees. Their total operating expense was just slightly higher than Rivian's last quarter while delivering 300x more cars. I don't know if you call this a bad quarter or if Rivian is generating electricity for their manufacturing plant by burning hundred dollar bills as the source of fuel.

I am lost for word

 

[Featsbeyond50]

But I guess that's understandable once you know how stupid the average person is. And that's before you realize half the people are even stupider than average!

If you're not sure if you know how stupid the average person is, get on Twitter. That's the place to learn real fast.

 

[lafrisbee]

May I suggest a post of merit designation?

No. No you can't. Jbcarioca is an advanced intelligence writer bot from the next decade. We only recognise humans.

 

[Big Time]

Mb Gordo should go start the RIVNQ clan of knuckleheads

 

[Knightshade]

Correct. This would be Tesla hitting a 1.4 million run rate as of today…..just be utilizing Fremont/Shanghai closer to that max capacity.

This is before the production increase from the Shanghai expansion that will be completed in April and before Tesla has expanded Fremont by 50% like they guided for.

That’s why I say the numbers seem too good to be true.

Except if Tesla is limited by chips, and not production space, this year, the #s make perfect sense. The expansions this year will bear most of their fruit NEXT year as chip supply lets up... but they're already going full tilt NOW both places with the available chips (and whatever is reserved for ramping Austin and Berlin)

I'll cite a wise forum member who recently suggested this might be the case-

It really comes down to chips.

 

[Knightshade]

Wow the EPS miss is way bigger than expected

I knew when they rose prices by a ton and on existing orders that things were bad but this is worse than I thought it'd be

Even worse than that- they gave in and said they'd honor the original lower pricing for all pre-orders. Which at current production projections will take them a couple years to work through. Good thing they found so many suckers to buy IPO stock to fund massive losses the whole time.

 

[Rohan]

There are fears, and there are facts. Market and TSLA is down because of the fear of inflation, interest rates, and the war. But the facts are that Tesla has been raising prices for a year, orders are up 100% in a week, and they will do better than ever. TSLA should be green and not follow macros if there was any intelligent life on Wall Street.

Is there any intelligent life on earth?

Yes, but Elon's only visiting

 

[Discoducky]

Mb Gordo should go start the RIVNQ clan of knuckleheads

Is there such a thing as RIVNQ? Makes me wonder if that isn't a thing...

 

[Discoducky]

How is this news for ABC? I get Fix, but ABC, ugh:.

Gas price hikes fueling electric vehicle conspiracy theories.

abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/gas-price-hikes-fueling-electric-vehicle-conspiracy-theories

I gimped the link, all you need to know is the title...

 

[betstarship]

This is how, I feel, this year has gone so far for EV awareness and demand.

 

[Gigapress]

Take with a grain of salt just like yesterday since we normally don't get any insight into Tesla's monthly US numbers. Not sure why/how all of sudden but I'm assuming it's registration data. This does seem to line up with the Experian numbers and also what that one analyst who checks Fremont often was saying about Fremont production

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501953484026961924

But this source is saying Tesla sold 42,742 vehicles in the US in Feb, with a total of 82,907 sold year to date. If these numbers are in the correct ballpark, we can start to figure out Q1's Delivery number -

Shanghai - Local Sales/Exports
Jan - 59,845
Feb - 56,515
March - 80,000 (still about 7,000 surplus left over from Jan production)

Fremont - US sales
Jan -40,165
Feb - 42,742
March - 50,000

Fremont Export number (anyone have a good idea of this?) - 7,000
Fremont Canada number for Q1 - 8,000

Add them all up, and we're looking at a 344,267 delivery number for Q1. I don't think any analyst is even remotely this high. It's technically possible that Tesla could hit the 350,000 number. March is by far the heaviest delivery month for both Fremont and Shanghai due to logistics (they send/export vehicles to the farther regions in the 1st/2nd month of each quarter while focusing on deliveries close to the factory in the final month of the quarter).

We also have no clue as to what to expect for Berlin/Austin deliveries by end of March. Maybe they get to 1,000-1,500 between the two of them.

Incredibly bullish numbers if the US sales numbers are correct. Honestly seems a bit too good to be true lol. Tesla would already be at a 1.4 million run rate for the year......in the first quarter of the year....before Shanghai does it's production increase in April and Berlin/Austin start contributing. It would mean 1.75-1.80 million is on the table for 2022.

What's your basis for predicting Shanghai will sell 80k in March? Even with the 7k in inventory that's 73k produced which would be a big jump from the prior two months.

Also, the predicted 8k jump in US sales from Fremont in March...is that because of the wave?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What's your basis for predicting Shanghai will sell 80k in March? Even with the 7k in inventory that's 73k produced which would be a big jump from the prior two months.

Also, the predicted 8k jump in US sales from Fremont in March...is that because of the wave?

My basis for Shanghai March number is that the overall production increase in daily production rate in Q1 verses Q4. If Shanghai was able to produce 55k in Feb with the shorter month (I'm assuming 7 fewer production days than Jan) then if you apply the daily production rate of Feb with the number of days in March, you get about 79k for production for March. Jan - daily rate of 2,270 cars/day Feb - 2,619.

Q4's Prod

Oct 55,554
Nov 56,917
Dec 66,759

Q1's Prod

Jan - 68,117
Feb - 55,300
March - Est 79,000

Therefore the total sum of Q1 production is 23,187 higher than Q4. Even if you add a down production day or two in March and/or exclude about 5,000 vehicles that didn't make it to delivery center/port, they should still hit 80,000 local sales in March. A production number of 79k is not a big jump at all because you have to use Jan as the reference month, not Feb....because of the fewer production days in the month. We saw a similar bump from Nov to Dec's production numbers.

As for Fremont, it's always been that way that the 3rd month is when they do about half of their total deliveries for the quarter. It was that way in Q4 and in Q3 the quarter before that. That is because of the logistics of sending production to the east coast/canada over the first 2 months of the quarter. So I might even be underestimating the 50,000 number for March from Fremont.

 

[larmor]

First it was Nio, Ride, then NKLA, LCID and now RIVN.

I wonder which side lost more money. The ones that bet on the "next TSLA", or the dumbasses that shorted TSLA.

The people shorting TSLA could have made exponentially more money just HODL TSLA and selling after 5 to 10 years. The accumulated gains could have put an oil derrick, small refinery, and natural gas drill and pump in everyone's backyard. Instead we are stuck with solar panels that provide energy for free and no oily mess.

 

[Nocturnal]

You've been selling off your TSLA and not telling us? Or, please explain, how have you been losing money?

Mostly due to my Q4 options plays. I'm not worried. Sometime this year I'll have more money than I had previously. Just a matter of when.

 

[WADan]

Tesla Model 3 Is Most Efficient Car of 2022, Model Y Takes 3rd

The Tesla Model 3 is the most efficient car of 2022, while the Model Y is in third place, just little behind. Driving a Tesla electric car is not only environmentally friendly but also financially beneficial.

www.tesmanian.com

Best in class again? This is a bad habit!

 

[Gigapress]

My basis for Shanghai March number is that the overall production increase in daily production rate in Q1 verses Q4. If Shanghai was able to produce 55k in Feb with the shorter month (I'm assuming 7 fewer production days than Jan) then if you apply the daily production rate of Feb with the number of days in March, you get about 79k for production for March. Jan - daily rate of 2,270 cars/day Feb - 2,619.

Q4's Prod

Oct 55,554
Nov 56,917
Dec 66,759

Q1's Prod

Jan - 68,117
Feb - 55,300
March - Est 79,000

Therefore the total sum of Q1 production is 23,187 higher than Q4. Even if you add a down production day or two in March and/or exclude about 5,000 vehicles that didn't make it to delivery center/port, they should still hit 80,000 local sales in March. A production number of 79k is not a big jump at all because you have to use Jan as the reference month, not Feb....because of the fewer production days in the month. We saw a similar bump from Nov to Dec's production numbers.

As for Fremont, it's always been that way that the 3rd month is when they do about half of their total deliveries for the quarter. It was that way in Q4 and in Q3 the quarter before that. That is because of the logistics of sending production to the east coast/canada over the first 2 months of the quarter. So I might even be underestimating the 50,000 number for March from Fremont.

Great explanation, thanks!

It does feel too good to be true but I double checked the math and it looks correct. So it really comes down to how reliable the Experian registration data is for estimating sales.

Earnings per share for Q1 should be somewhere around $3.50 at this rate!

 

[Sudre]

Yeah now that I'm looking at the options chart, this is probably preparation to keep the stock under 900 for next week. There's actually more puts than calls at 850 next week so I doubt it gets pinned under 850. Seems like MM's will for sure want to keep it right under 900 for next week.

I still think that for this to work so easily, there's gotta be coordination between MM's, hedge funds, and even index funds. The buying volume is so low.

Many times this year when the thought was "more PUTs than Calls" it turned out THEY were the ones who wanted as many shares as they could get their hands on so don't be so confident about a PUT wall being where you think it is. We do not know what side of the wall the big players or the MMs stand.

 

[Gigapress]

350k deliveries
$52k ASP
31% auto gross margin
$1.65 B opex
---> $4 B earnings ($16 B annualized)

At today's market cap that's only around a 60 P/E ratio!

Meanwhile, institutional analysts are predicting $11 B for 2022, according to Yahoo Finance.

Massive upgrades incoming. Hard to see how this doesn't blow the top off for TSLA in April.