Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Good one

The most important thing out of this video is that this former board member who is friends of Elon the last 20 years just said revenue growth for 2022 is 65%, and is looking for 88 billion for the year. No idea if he is just making a prediction or actually have seen internal projections. The way he said it seems to be the latter. Time stamped from the video below

 

[SOULPEDL]

That was rhetorical, right?

View attachment 779593

MMs didn't even attempt to defend MaxPain at 835. Now perhaps working to hold 800.

Nope, done, that was me next to the cliff. Then more at 800. Sold them at 851 so doing just fine.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The most important thing out of this video is that this former board member who is friends of Elon the last 20 years just said revenue growth for 2022 is 65%, and is looking for 88 billion for the year. No idea if he is just making a prediction or actually have seen internal projections. The way he said it seems to be the latter. Time stamped from the video below

If it was something from an internal projection then it's slightly outdated. So I guarantee you it doesn't factor in the latest dynamics for Tesla's business. As in, with this demand surge, price hikes (probably more in the future), Tesla prioritizing higher trim and FSD orders, etc.......So probably take that 88 billion number and add 5% to it. So more like 70% growth of 92 billion.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Sound familiar?

 

[brantse]

What follows is options talk, skip if you want, but I believe it is bullish for the future stock price.

While I haven’t made an exhaustive study, it sure seems to me that recent SP closes have been just slightly below a large number of puts (put wall). An analogous situation often occurs where the SP is capped below call walls, to keep retail call buyers from profiting. This week’s close 795, last week 838, prior weeks 809, 856, 860, 923, 846. Many of these weeks had significant put walls just slightly above the closing SP. Could it be possible that somebody is collecting shares via buying far out of the money puts? Buy OTM puts for $1.50-$2.00 early Monday and then naked short all week (selling high and collecting cash). No need to cover because you get shares “put” to you. This week’s open was $856 and the morning high $866, which is a nice selling point when you know that you can naked short it all week to $795 and true up on Saturday at $800. Thoughts? We know the quarterly earnings will be stellar, so maybe a stealthy way to collect shares.

I'm confused by the theory. If you mean by selling puts, that possibly could have some validity, but owning a put contract gives you the right to sell shares, not acquire them.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Ha! Wait until they get a load of margins when every vehicle sold in Q2 has $12k of FSD attached to it.

That will be sweet. But is there some risk there? If they can’t make it work in a timely manner and people press the issue thru judicial processes etc is there a chance they would have to return the money. I know some progress is being made but it still seems a long way off. And people are already getting frustrated with having to qualify for something they paid for. I know some of our local Tesla group have thrown in the towel on keeping their score up. Just saying, is it a good idea to get a lot of people paying for something so sketchy at this point?

Jmho. Don’t crucify me.

 

[Discoducky]

That will be sweet. But is there some risk there? If they can’t make it work in a timely manner and people press the issue thru judicial processes etc is there a chance they would have to return the money. I know some progress is being made but it still seems a long way off. And people are already getting frustrated with having to qualify for something they paid for. I know some of our local Tesla group have thrown in the towel on keeping their score up. Just saying, is it a good idea to get a lot of people paying for something so sketchy at this point?

Jmho. Don’t crucify me.

What exactly is your opinion?

There is risk by selling something that is never delivered; sure.

Do I have the opinion that is happening? No, my FSD drives contain about ~20 turns and ~15 miles of straight. Currently, 10.10.2 can NOT handle one unprotected left and one roundabout. And yes, those really don't work, neither does a 1.5 mile stretch of dirt road.

Is it 'sketchy'? No, IMO.

Is it getting better overtime? Yes

Is it good enough progress for me? Yes

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That will be sweet. But is there some risk there? If they can’t make it work in a timely manner and people press the issue thru judicial processes etc is there a chance they would have to return the money. I know some progress is being made but it still seems a long way off. And people are already getting frustrated with having to qualify for something they paid for. I know some of our local Tesla group have thrown in the towel on keeping their score up. Just saying, is it a good idea to get a lot of people paying for something so sketchy at this point?

Jmho. Don’t crucify me.

Tesla changed their wording on the FSD on the order page many months ago. In fact I think it was almost a year ago. The new wording only puts Tesla on the hook for reaching feature complete, not full autonomy.

Red-read the description of the FSD

 

[dhanson865]

So the general opinion of the internet was that Sandy Munro was wrong suggesting a knitted or woven carbon overwrap for the Tesla motor. This reply discusses why he suggested such and shows a picture that suggests Tesla has already been working on it.

 

[Krugerrand]

That will be sweet. But is there some risk there? If they can’t make it work in a timely manner and people press the issue thru judicial processes etc is there a chance they would have to return the money. I know some progress is being made but it still seems a long way off. And people are already getting frustrated with having to qualify for something they paid for. I know some of our local Tesla group have thrown in the towel on keeping their score up. Just saying, is it a good idea to get a lot of people paying for something so sketchy at this point?

Jmho. Don’t crucify me.

Exhibit #1 Demand as of last week saw 6-9 month wait times.

Exhibit #2 This week Tesla said demand increased by 100%.

Exhibit #3 Tesla increases pricing and changes priority for order fulfillment, FSD option now takes you to the head of the line, Performance takes you to the head of the second line.

What do you think the order backlog stands at now? And what percentage of that backlog will want to move to the head of either of the first two lines?

I’ve no idea the answer to either of those questions, but I believe demand is so high now that Tesla can’t fulfill the order backlog they currently have this year even with production increases.

None of which answered your question because I feel it’s irrelevant. I don’t think ‘authorities’ have a leg to stand on nor have any capacity to stop FSD.

 

[Knightshade]

That will be sweet. But is there some risk there? If they can’t make it work in a timely manner and people press the issue thru judicial processes etc is there a chance they would have to return the money

So there's 2 issues here.

First is, Tesla never recognizes revenue for undelivered features.... that $ actually sits on the books as a liability until they deliver. So it's not like this is padding their profits and would have to unwind that if they had to refund it.

Second, the only thing left to deliver to anyone who bought after March 2019 is level 2 autosteer on city streets. That's the only undelivered thing on the list of features promised during the sales process for FSD since then.

They still owe considerably more to the pre-3/19 buyers, but those make up an increasingly small % of the fleet-- and they only paid ~3k for FSD anyway.

Tesla changed their wording on the FSD on the order page many months ago. In fact I think it was almost a year ago

It was 3 years ago.

They've made minor edits since- but that's when the product changed from a generalized promise of (at least) L4 self driving, to a promise of specific features... all at L2... and all of them already delivered by now other than the autosteer on city streets bit.


(and to be clear, I fully expect if Tesla does successfully get a working system beyond L2 it'll be delivered to buyers of both versions of FSD, even if they only technically owe it to the pre-3/19 ones-- the significantly narrowed promises post 3/19 only are relevant for: Revenue recognition purposes... and avoiding additional legal liability if they aren't able to get beyond L2 on those cars)

 

[dhanson865]

random anecdote here. I don't have a car with autopilot and I just got hit up for an interview by a journalist because I posted something somewhere that I don't even remember that made me seem like a good person to bug.

The message came to me on reddit today but I haven't posted anything noteworthy about autopilot in a long time and I've never spoken about it like I used it.

I immediatly marked it as spam so no going back to figure out who they are writing for.

 

[Electroman]

random anecdote here. I don't have a car with autopilot and I just got hit up for an interview by a journalist because I posted something somewhere that I don't even remember that made me seem like a good person to bug.

The message came to me on reddit today but I haven't posted anything noteworthy about autopilot in a long time and I've never spoken about it like I used it.

I immediatly marked it as spam so no going back to figure out who they are writing for.

You may have said something seemingly negative about autopilot or FSD or Tesla in general. That usually attracts main stream media journalists like fleas to shi$t.

They are hoping they can get a few choice negative quotes from you to write a hit piece. Even if you overwhelmingly say good things about autopilot these scums will zoom in on one negative observation and spin an article with that.

 

[Phobi]

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Tavares confident that Stellantis can catch up with Tesla​

Tavares confident that Stellantis can catch up with Tesla

Stellantis should be able to catch up with electric vehicle pioneer Tesla in the coming years, its chief executive Carlos Tavares said on Friday, adding that competition would benefit consumers.

www.reuters.com

Let's all take a moment and thank them for funding a big portion of Tesla's Gigafactories with their purchases of emission credit

^Makes stepping into work THAT much more easier

Other notables:

-There are now 4 tesla's in the parking lot @ work
-Due to gas prices, I'm hearing more and more co-workers looking to switch to electric...and hybrid


HODL.

 

[Ogre]

-There are now 4 tesla's in the parking lot @ work
-Due to gas prices, I'm hearing more and more co-workers looking to switch to electric...and hybrid

Yeah… as much as it sucks *why* demand is so high at the moment, demand is crazy high.

It’s like it’s raining money outside.

Tavares is holding a press conference talking about how someday he’ll build the best rain catching bucket in the world.

Barra and Farley are trying to catch it in their hands.

Diess has a few buckets spread out and is looking for more.

Musk is digging drainage ditches to fill up the 3 swimming pools he spent the last 15 years digging.

 

[Gigapress]

That will be sweet. But is there some risk there? If they can’t make it work in a timely manner and people press the issue thru judicial processes etc is there a chance they would have to return the money. I know some progress is being made but it still seems a long way off. And people are already getting frustrated with having to qualify for something they paid for. I know some of our local Tesla group have thrown in the towel on keeping their score up. Just saying, is it a good idea to get a lot of people paying for something so sketchy at this point?

Jmho. Don’t crucify me.

Adding to the other replies...Tesla employees, including Elon, Andrej and other leaders, are driving the alpha version of V11 which has been repeatedly touted as a major improvement and architectural redesign. They also are seeing the performance metrics for V11 testing.

AI Day was 7 months ago. It rocked the AI engineering world. It smashed its main objective to recruit people to join the Tesla AI team, resulting in at least a 100x increase in application rate. Naturally there's time needed for employee onboarding to some extent and time needed for the new folks to accomplish useful projects once they've hit their stride. At Tesla speed I think we could expect that now is about the time by which the new recruits could've made significant contributions on longer term big FSD upgrades.

Meanwhile, the public FSD Beta tester pool has been growing exponentially and at this rate it won't be long until all the current FSD purchasers have been invited to try the Beta. At that point, the only way to cast a wider data fishing net is to get more drivers buying FSD, which of course they can maximize simply by fulfilling exclusively orders with FSD until further notice.

I think this likely could be indicating both that FSD V11 is indeed excellent and that they are intending to greatly expand the army of FSD Beta testers.

It's one thing for Elon to tweet that an upcoming FSD version will be "mind-blowing" only for it to be a letdown. We've seen that many times. It's entirely another to decide to give FSD to all customers buying now rather than primarily a minority of Tesla FSD enthusiasts. They could've just came out and said "Hey folks, we're frantically trying to grow production but we were already 6 months behind on S3XY orders and had 2 million people waiting for Cybertrucks before order rates doubled this week so the only reasonable way to keep this under control is to raise prices $12k across the whole lineup." But instead they're selling FSD licenses. Bold move.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think this likely could be indicating both that FSD V11 is indeed excellent and that they are intending to greatly expand the army of FSD Beta testers.

FSD beta v11 is even BIGGER and MORE IMPORTANT than that. V11 is "Single Stack", which means Tesla will use one unified neural net for both city and highway driving. Once proven, this single stack will become the basis for standard autopilot deployed on all cars sold in N. America.

Why is this so important? Because it means that once "single stack" becomes the production version, then ALL Tesla cars will be gathering data for FSD. Consequently, the "march of nines" to detect and train for edge cases will be vastly accelerated. As will standard safety features for basic autopilot.

This matters.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

When you first invested in TSLA you were here:

When TSLA split you were here:

You are now here:

When Tesla Network launches:

When Bot starts cleaning your couch:

When Bot starts cleaning your multiple Mars couches:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just a little PSA courtesy Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@haltman Little do they know, birds aren’t real! https://t.co/mBPzUQMxRN" / Twitter

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I've seen this brought up over and over. But it means nothing unless somebody tried to do a transaction and it wasn't permitted. I have never seen anybody claim here that they tried to sell shares they were supposed to have, but they couldn't. Other than that, all that is being complained about is that their account didn't have its assets listed properly. So what? It means nothing.

If you want to claim some kind of cheating, then document a case where somebody tried to sell their TSLA shares and was told they couldn't.

The problem with synthetic shares isn't that you won't eventually get legitimate shares. The real problem is that supply and demand is what sets the price of the shares. If the number of shares is artificially increased, then all shares are worth less. It's not different from printing more money. There is a price to pay when synthetic shares can be created from thin air. It subverts the normal and proper functioning of markets.