Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

Last century (or maybe the previous one) when I watched the TV show M*A*S*H, I noticed one episode plot was recycled many times. Some military Top Brass or other stuffed shirt would visit the surgical camp, be outraged at the surgeons' outrageous behavior off-duty, demand that they be disciplined, then see them in action in the operating tent... and all was forgiven. "You boys are the best doctors I've ever seen blah blah keep it up."

Elon is those surgeons -- so outrageously good at what he does that many observers (including me) forgive his eccentricities. Folks who don't forgive are either paid enemies, or ignorant of his achievements, or low-intelligence. As I may have mentioned before, Tesla and TSLA don't need them.

Moreover, like in the TV characters, Elon's eccentricities make him more attractive to many folks who wish they had the courage or opportunity to "not give AF." The phenomenon seems similar to sexual selection of weird traits by evolution -- that male peacock must be very strong if he survives in spite of his ridiculously maladaptive tail. Long live the peacocks.

For sure!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503550105902895112

 

[dhanson865]

At Battery Day Tesla specified 6X power and 5X energy increase for 4680 vs 2170.

That implies an equivalent sized 4680 pack can accept 20% more power.

1. that ratio is ignoring the pack, that is 4680 in the abstract vs 2170 in the abstract. wasted space in a pack could hurt one side or the other more depending on specific pack designs.

2. 20% more power isn't an insane 3x charging speed increase. If someone had started this conversation about 20% faster charging I would have yawned and not replied.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

With Q1 production numbers about three weeks out here is a look at Tesla's price to sales ratio and what we could see:

According to ycharts.com (Ycharts.com tsla price to sales ratio link) we are currently sitting at an approximate price to sales ratio of 16. We hit around a ratio of 25 end of December going into January as well.

Price to sales ratio generally uses trailing twelve month revenue and here are the numbers we had in 2021:
Q2 2021
Production: 206k
Revenue: $12B

Q3 2021
Production: 238k
Revenue: $13.7B

Q4 2021
Production: 306k
Revenue: $17.7B

In 2021 we saw quarter over quarter production growth starting with Q2 of 14.4%, 15.5%, and 28.2%. Q1 tends to have the lowest quarter over quarter production growth with a steady ramp. With two new factories coming online I expect this trend to continue in 2022.

For Q1 2022 I used a conservative 14% growth over Q4's 306k produced to estimate production of 347.7k vehicles.

For estimated revenue I simplify Tesla's revenue by averaging revenue per vehicle produced which in 2021 comes out to approximately $57k. I think this is conservative as the price increases of 2021 are going to continue to have a delayed effect due to delivery wait times.

With Q1 2022 estimated production of 347.7k I estimate Tesla's Q1 2022 revenue to come in around $19.9B.

Trailing twelve month production: 1.09M vehicles
Trailing twelve month revenue: $62.9B

Share price estimates with corresponding Price to sales ratios:

Price/sales	Share price
15	$914
20	$1,218
25	$1,523

Of course there are a whole host of issues negatively affecting Teslas valuation in the short term, but I like to use a range of price to sales ratio valuations as a yardstick.

Here are my 2022 and 2023 estimates using 14% vehicle production growth quarter over quarter:

2022

Price to sales	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
15	$914	$1,072	$1,251	$1,426
20	$1,218	$1,430	$1,667	$1,901
25	$1,523	$1,787	$2,084	$2,376

2023

Price to sales	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
15	$1,625	$1,853	$2,112	$2,408
20	$2,167	$2,470	$2,816	$3,211
25	$2,709	$3,088	$3,520	$4,013

Hope this is helpful.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

HW4 is near.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503557626822635529

 

[Artful Dodger]

What’s going on in the after hours? Looks like we’re up 1.35% $777.77 ATM

TSLA After-hrs Chart | MarketWatch

 

[Big Time]

really hoping for a a double positive new day for the macro tmrw

 

[DarthPierce]

really hoping for a a double positive new day for the macro tmrw

Yes, would love to gain enough to actually be able to roll out my 3/18 options.

 

[zach_]

Substantial price increases across the board

Model 3:

• Model 3 RWD: $46,990 (from $44,99)
• Model 3 Long Range: $54,990 (from $50,99)
• Model 3 Performance: $61,990 (from $59,990)

Model Y:

• Model Y Long Range: $62,990 (from $59,99)
• Model Y Performance: $67,990 (from $64,990)

Model S/X:

• Model S Long Range: $99,990 (from $94,99)
• Model S Plaid: $135,990 (from $129,99)
• Model X Long Range: $114,990 (from $104,999)
• Model X Plaid: $138,990 (from $126,490), a $12.5k increase

Optimistic take is demand is nuts. Pessimistic take is this is reflecting the inflationary pressures Elon was referring to. My guess would be a mix of both.

 

[WADan]

One of the reasons I find TA fairly useless is no matter WHAT actually happened you can find someone who "predicted it" with some chart full of crayon lines.


Mind you the next time something weird happens you can find a DIFFERENT person who "predicted" THAT using different crayon lines.

Grab any 20 TA guys at random and you'll get 20 different answers to which of the 974,478 indicators is the "important" one, and whatever level it bounces from you'll find a pile of randos explaining why THAT happened to be the correct support, in retrospect.

Next bounce it'll be different guys with different answers of course.

I especially like the guys who tell you "X is strong support, but if it goes under that then Y is the next support, and if it goes under that Z is the next one...."

Well, yeah, if enough folks throw out enough random #s, SOMEONE is sure to pick a winner.


Any system where nobody agrees how to use it is a pretty poor system.


Stop trying to read tea leaves, that if they were legible would be what everyone would be doing.

Own good companies for a long time. If that's boring feel free to visit the "other" thread for ways to (relatively) safely pick up some pennies ahead of the steamroller.

I think I am around long enough to know nobody knows the stock price in the short term, and the long term either. All we can do is to believe in the long term execution of a company with solid fundamental!

 

[deshkart]

Substantial price increases across the board

Model 3:

• Model 3 RWD: $46,990 (from $44,99)
• Model 3 Long Range: $54,990 (from $50,99)
• Model 3 Performance: $61,990 (from $59,990)

Model Y:

• Model Y Long Range: $62,990 (from $59,99)
• Model Y Performance: $67,990 (from $64,990)

Model S/X:

• Model S Long Range: $99,990 (from $94,99)
• Model S Plaid: $135,990 (from $129,99)
• Model X Long Range: $114,990 (from $104,999)
• Model X Plaid: $138,990 (from $126,490), a $12.5k increase

Optimistic take is demand is nuts. Pessimistic take is this is reflecting the inflationary pressures Elon was referring to. My guess would be a mix of both.

Making space for SR Y ?

 

[Beltsbear]

Substantial price increases across the board

Model 3:

• Model 3 RWD: $46,990 (from $44,99)
• Model 3 Long Range: $54,990 (from $50,99)
• Model 3 Performance: $61,990 (from $59,990)

Model Y:

• Model Y Long Range: $62,990 (from $59,99)
• Model Y Performance: $67,990 (from $64,990)

Model S/X:

• Model S Long Range: $99,990 (from $94,99)
• Model S Plaid: $135,990 (from $129,99)
• Model X Long Range: $114,990 (from $104,999)
• Model X Plaid: $138,990 (from $126,490), a $12.5k increase

Optimistic take is demand is nuts. Pessimistic take is this is reflecting the inflationary pressures Elon was referring to. My guess would be a mix of both.

What is going to happen to cybertruck prices?

 

[Drumheller]

What is going to happen to cybertruck prices?

The long range model y is now 12,000 more than I paid in Oct 2020 so I anticipate cybertruck is going to increase at least 15,000 per trim level by release in 2023

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All of this delicious margin is available to anyone who wants it. Come and get it legacy auto!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

All of this delicious margin is available to anyone who wants it. Come and get it legacy auto!

I can’t tell if Canada just put their prices up or not because I don’t know what they were yesterday.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Substantial price increases across the board

Model 3:

• Model 3 RWD: $46,990 (from $44,99)
• Model 3 Long Range: $54,990 (from $50,99)
• Model 3 Performance: $61,990 (from $59,990)

Model Y:

• Model Y Long Range: $62,990 (from $59,99)
• Model Y Performance: $67,990 (from $64,990)

Model S/X:

• Model S Long Range: $99,990 (from $94,99)
• Model S Plaid: $135,990 (from $129,99)
• Model X Long Range: $114,990 (from $104,999)
• Model X Plaid: $138,990 (from $126,490), a $12.5k increase

Optimistic take is demand is nuts. Pessimistic take is this is reflecting the inflationary pressures Elon was referring to. My guess would be a mix of both.

Craziness. I reserved a 7 seat MY with hitch for $57,990 last September. That same spec is now $66,990. And my estimated delivery date is August ‘22 (originally Dec ‘21)

 

[generalenthu]

What is going to happen to cybertruck prices?

Would be really surprised if they honored them.. don't think the rwd version will be offered even.

The quad motor will soak up first years run I think. So, after 4 years of so, I guess ppl will stop caring.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

All of this delicious margin is available to anyone who wants it. Come and get it legacy auto!

Legacy dealerships will get all of it unfortunately through markups. Pierre Ferragu made a good point on the Tesla Daily podcast that one of Tesla’s huge advantages is the ability to aggressively change pricing whenever needed.

 

[Ogre]

Would be really surprised if they honored them.. don't think the rwd version will be offered even.

The quad motor will soak up first years run I think. So, after 4 years of so, I guess ppl will stop caring.

I was holding out hope, but this last bump kind of pushed me over the edge. Dual Motor AWD was same price as Model Y AWD LR. So I’m kind of indexing off of that.

Tesla was wise to remove the prices from their site, it reset expectations.

 

[Ogre]

Not sure how many Model 3s and Model Ys Tesla leased during the first years, but as those trickle in, Tesla gets to realize a massive profit on cars they “sold” 3 years ago.

This also maybe explains why Tesla would be getting the Model Y SR and Model Y AWD versions ready for sale. It’s likely they will need lower priced Model Ys to stimulate demand after this latest bump.

 

[Skryll]

Not sure how many Model 3s and Model Ys Tesla leased during the first years, but as those trickle in, Tesla gets to realize a massive profit on cars they “sold” 3 years ago.

This also maybe explains why Tesla would be getting the Model Y SR and Model Y AWD versions ready for sale. It’s likely they will need lower priced Model Ys to stimulate demand after this latest bump.

It seemed insanely optimistic back then to say 'you can lease the model 3 but you won't get a buy-out option at the end of the lease, because robotaxi' and yet here we are, no robotaxi and yet still profit