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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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We simply cannot have a green day without some stellar journalism by you know who:

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  • John Bernal was a Tesla employee who showed FSD Beta to the world on his YouTube channel, AI Addict. He was fired in February.
  • He says he never showed unreleased products or company secrets, but some of his videos showed the system not working perfectly.
  • His access to FSD Beta has been cut off despite having no safety “strikes” in the software.

He was also featured on this March 3 edition of NPR's program On Point in the show titled "Tesla and the ethics of self-driving cars."

 
@Artful Dodger Isn’t Elon’s last tranche related to operating margin? Perhaps the real reason prices are increasing?

I've been promoting that theory over in Near-future quarterly financial projections for at least 4-5 months, but we did see in Tesla's 2021-10K that they DO NOT expect that 10th operational milestone to be reached.

Also, the current round of price increases will mostly take effect AFTER 2022Q2 (due to the order backlog). The 10th tranche window of opportunity closes in Aug '22, and requires GM as measured over 4 consecutive quarters. So, it's far from certain.

Paging @mongo for the color (he's got a solid understanding of terms for the two CEO comp. plans - 2012 and 2018 respectively, with this issue concerning the 2012 Plan).

Cheers!
 
He was also featured on this March 3 edition of NPR's program On Point in the show titled "Tesla and the ethics of self-driving cars."

Maybe they should feature him on “Tesla and the ethics of abusing your employment relationship for side profits”.

Don’t know the guy. Would never encourage anyone to harass him. Just sounds like someone who is doing some sketchy things based on his employment.
 
The current price increases have nothing to do with higher costs except for the desire of Tesla to avoid the appearance of profiteering from unprecedented demand by justifying the price increases with higher material costs. Tesla can use the rising costs of materials to ward off the narrative that Tesla is a greedy, price-gouging company.
So you're saying that Tesla is a greedy, price-gouging company. But they're hiding it behind claims that it's all about higher material costs.

So you think the whole thing about making Tesla vehicles more affordable was just lies? Kind of nasty vision you have there. Not one I share.
 
Also, the current round of price increases will mostly take effect AFTER 2022Q2 (due to the order backlog).
Tesla is not constrained to fill orders in the order received. If they want to deliver in Q2 a bunch of higher priced cars that were just ordered in the weeks after the latest price increases, they could do that.
 
Bumping this to see if I can get some after hours play.

To buy TSLA on margin… 🤔
For me, the stock would have to be down >20% from here for an obviously stupid reason that I was very confident would reverse in short order. Example - Elon’s Twitter hacked and says he’s retiring and they’re switching to hybrids. But in the current circumstances, the stock is down for real risks and dropping 20% from here means those risks are probably closer to being realized.

So I don’t think I would do what you’re suggesting during a major market downturn because there’s no telling when the reversal might come.

But if I had spare dry powder I would be buying TSLA tomorrow.
 
Maybe it's just Russian humor? Elon is trying to win over Putin with tough guy Russian humor. It doesn't make sense for him to try to make enemies with him. That's not going to help end the war. We need to send Elon and Donald Trump over there to bond with Putin and talk some sense into him. Go bare back riding on grizzly bears together.
Do you really think Putin would listen to Trump? LOL
 
This guy needs to respect his NDA as an employee of Tesla. He can't share "industry knowledge", which is something he said of being the purpose of his videos, that's the difference between him and someone like Chuck.

Also this is the guy who had an accident on FSD and that video went viral, and used in a CNBC hit piece.

The fact people need to understand before going off the deep end is that we don't know why he was fired. While it does seem like poor judgement to become a Youtuber focusing on your employers products, that may not be his only demonstration of poor judgement.

The reporting is pretty despicable because it leads the reader to believe the taking away of the ex-employees FSD was related to his Youtube videos (when, in fact, Tesla provides the FSD as an employment perk, and they always remove it when an employee leaves the company for any reason).
 
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Rob Mauerer on Tesla’s price increases.

This isn’t current, but illustrates well the complete lack of correlation between cost to produce and sale price.

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So you're saying that Tesla is a greedy, price-gouging company. But they're hiding it behind claims that it's all about higher material costs.

So you think the whole thing about making Tesla vehicles more affordable was just lies? Kind of nasty vision you have there. Not one I share.

No, you don't understand so I'll explain it for you:

Market price is defined by supply and demand.

Some people think selling a product for market price is dirty when that company could sell it for less and still make a small profit. I think selling products at market price is the best way to do it and that mentioning inflationary pressures in the same breath you mention you are raising prices is just good business.

The reason Tesla is working their ass off to make EV's more affordable is so EV's can proliferate far and wide. Selling the limited number they can currently make for prices below market value does not help EV's proliferate - that's just a gifting of value. The end game is to make so many EV's, so efficiently, that everyone can afford one more easily than an ICE car. This is the path Tesla is on and it requires massive investment and hard work to get there. Selling out their entire production at market rates is the fastest way to get there because it ensures capital is not the limiting factor. The market price does not go down until Tesla is making so many they need to lower it to ensure they all end up in people's hands.

Tesla is on a noble mission but it's not a charity giveaway for people who can't afford a new car.
 
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Market price is defined by supply and demand.

Some people think selling a product for market prices is dirty. I think it's the best way to do it for multiple reasons I won't go into. Mentioning inflationary pressures in the same breath you mention you are raising prices is just good business sense.

The reason Tesla is working their ass off to make EV's more affordable is so EV's can proliferate far and wide. Selling the limited number they can currently make for prices below market value does not help EV's proliferate - that's just a gifting of value. The end game is to make so many EV's so efficiently that everyone can afford one more easily than an ICE car. This is the path Tesla is on and it requires massive investment and hard work to get there. Selling out their entire production at market rates is the fastest way to get there because it ensures capital is never the limiting factor.

Tesla is on a noble mission but it's not a charity giveaway for people who can't afford a new car.

Unbelievable how some can’t get the basic concept that as long as Tesla is running production as fast as they can, they’re 100% fulfilling their mission and can get as much profit as they want in the process.

Literally nothing changes in the numbers except Tesla makes more profit. The world isn’t any more or less saved because the number Tesla produces and sells this year, next year, or the year after that is entirely different than Tesla’s profits
 
It feels like once we got past the Model 3 EV demand has snowballed. Rising prices for EVs seems to actually fuel the craze even more. Almost like FOMO^2.

My hope is Tesla is using this money to build our it’s war chest and fill it with lithium, nickel, and lock in long term contracts for cells. If they can secure the next 5-10+ years worth of raw materials for producing cars they will be way ahead of the game.
 
Unbelievable how some can’t get the basic concept that as long as Tesla is running production as fast as they can, they’re 100% fulfilling their mission and can get as much profit as they want in the process.

Literally nothing changes in the numbers except Tesla makes more profit. The world isn’t any more or less saved because the number Tesla produces and sells this year, next year, or the year after that is entirely different than Tesla’s profits

You said it much more simply than I did. In my defense, I felt like I had to spell out every detail because there are still a few people who don't seem to understand it yet.
 
I heard a term a while ago regarding Apple cranking up privacy settings for iOS. The term is “Strategy Credit”.

Strategy Credit: An uncomplicated decision that makes a company look good relative to other companies who face much more significant trade-offs.

Tesla’s corporate goals are incredibly well aligned with… actually doing the right thing environmentally. So almost any choice they make which is environmentally friendly will both benefit Tesla financially, and make the company look good relative to everyone else.

An Example: Tesla tries to manufacture products and source materials for them as close as possible to where they will be sold. Because Tesla has so heavily invested in automating everything, they have minimized the impact local labor has on their finished goods. Tesla also benefits by avoiding tariffs, and builds a relationship with the local community and governments.

Another related: Tesla automates the hell out of everything. This is more efficient, and allows Tesla to locate facilities wherever the hell they want. This means even in relatively expensive labor markets like the California Bay Area, Tesla can have a manufacturing facility which is productive and profitable.

The term “Strategy Credit” was coined to describe something Apple did, but I think Tesla has completely owned the concept around it.

Tesla is very likely to decrease the base price of the Model Y here very soon by introducing a new Model Y SR. That car will almost certainly be $6,000 - 8,000 less than the Model Y LR. This low cost Model Y will likely be the champion of their lineup for the next few years. Just as Tesla brings on capacity to crank out hundreds of thousands of new cars a year they increase prices so much that they will be less affordable than ever… and a new Model Y that slots right in there to shore up any demand on the “low” end.

The new Model Y is cheap to manufacture (regardless of whether it’s 4680 or LFP). Super efficient and doesn’t use near as many cells as the Model Y LR. Tesla has created the perfect storm for profitability, driving business to their most profitable product line, and pushes what will be their most efficient EV yet.

Obviously… lots of theory crafting and speculation. But it makes a lot of sense with the way Tesla works.