The new Model Ys will slay the market. I foresee demand still increasing from here even as costs fall. Margins are set to explode well beyond 40% unless Tesla decides to either tolerate an even longer backlog or shut down the order page with a "Sold Out" announcement.
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The structural battery pack and additional front giga casting means the new Y will have less mass, a more centralized distribution of mass, and a more rigid chassis that twists less during hard turns.
Regarding mass distribution, saving weight on the outside of the car reduces the inertial resistance to rotating the car. The effect is proportional to the square of the distance from the car's center of mass. It's a summation of mass * radius^2.
Elon said at Battery Day, "If this was a convertible that had no upper structure,
that convertible will be stiffer than a regular car. So it’s just really major...[And] if you can bring things closer to the center, you reduce the polar moment of inertia, and that means the car maneuvers better. It just feels better.
You won’t know why, but it just feels more agile. So it’s really cool. This is really major...Like I said, so
10% mass reduction in the body of the car"
For a rough estimate, with a 10% mass reduction and perhaps a 15% improvement from centralizing the mass distribution, we might be looking at about a 1-(1-0.1)*(1-0.15) =
24% reduction in the resistance to turning.
The stiffer chassis will also enable better suspension and in turn better traction and ride comfort, especially during turns. Teslas already feel like they drive on rails, and that's about to get 20 to 30% better.
Another underappreciated advantage of giga castings is consistent quality for panel gaps. Manufacturing variation inherent to the legacy process of stamping parts and joining them together will be simply deleted by having one unitized primary structural element in each third of the car. The skin panels can then easily be fitted to have proper gaps, making for a nicer appearance, better aerodynamics, and reduced wind noise.
The lighter weight will further improve ride quality by putting less load on the suspension.
Reduced weight will also make for slightly less road noise, which is one of the most common complaints about Tesla vehicles. Better not to mash the tire rubber into the pavement as hard.
Beautiful new exterior paint coming from Berlin (and soon the other factories) will draw more curious eyeballs to lustfully gaze at Model Ys. Deep Crimson looks gorgeous on a digital image and probably even better in real life.
Plus, I still think charging speeds will be substantially faster with the new battery design and the longevity may already be at the million-mile level, making for great resale value for these Ys. Jeff Dahn and Elon have both hinted at this in the last few years.
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Usually a Tesla virgin is hooked by their first experience actually seeing and driving the car. That bait is about to get even more enticing. The infectiousness of Tesla's viral word-of-mouth marketing strategy will increase. Owners will be even more interested in dazzling their friends, family and acquaintances with what their Tesla can do. This is an exponential growth phenomenon, so even a small bump in the growth rate of the
cult fan base can have an amplified effect over time as it compounds on itself.
Meanwhile, crossover mid-sized SUVs continue to
gain popularity in general.
These improvements also lower manufacturing cost. It is hard to see how the new Ys will have less than 40% gross margin even excluding emissions credits and FSD. For premium trims with extra goodies like sport wheels or third row seating added, 50% margin is plausible. Damn.
