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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Not sure what that entails beyond what’s been covered in Part 2 but likely something more cohesive + comprehensive going beyond just the consumer (Ie, government scale re-imagining of the “grid”).
I think that's likely the case. When youre talking about implementing decentralized renewables and storage, even when thinking about the entire grid, you can move a lot faster than if keeping it centralized were your goal.

I posted a link here a few days ago to a US Virgin Islands story. The governor is talking about taking the entire grid of St Croix to 100% solar in 90 days.

Elon can see opportunity when the economic climate shifts, so can the fossil industry. St Croix is home to a shuttered oil refinery that suddenly becomes a lot more economical if they're not burning diesel for electricty.

These island cases are always just a few years ahead of the mainstream reality. Elon clearly sees it coming. Texas for instance.....
 
A close above $880 would be nice. Would eclipse the close of $879.89 from March 2nd and act as the first higher high on the daily chart in awhile. As it is, daily chart is definitely showing signs of the stock looking to break out imho.

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Elon doesn't in anyway need the money at all that would come from such a transaction - but would there be any advantages to Boring Company becoming a Tesla subsidiary?

I think a good result would be that Tesla would have more efficient and experienced teams when it comes to lobbying and negotiating with various local regulators/municipalities for all Tesla products & services, whether that be tunnels for public transport/utilities, FSD, power infrastructure, new factories or supercharger locations, etc etc.

plus of course it would make more sense in terms of developing a public transport pod vehicle specifically designed for boring tunnel system.
Elon wishes Tesla were a private company again and has yet to take SpaceX or Neuralink public. If Boring Company were bought by Tesla then it'd be subject to the same FUD and Wall Street shenanigans as the rest of Tesla.

A common belief exists that the SolarCity acquisition was a fraudulent bailout of Elon's cousins. Scooping up Boring Company would only add fuel to the fires of misplaced hatred and distrust.

We can rest assured that no matter what, Tesla will be Boring's leading supplier because no one else could mass produce low-cost, high-reliability, autonomous-capable EVs, so they might as well delete the complexity and potential antitrust allegations associated with such a merger or acquisition.
 
Knowing humans as this ant does, there should be a simple, imaginable/low math number that the average moron can grasp. A comparison of Savings per 100 miles. Take the average price of a kW for the lower 48 and the average price of a gallon of gasoline to do the math. And used the published watts per mile of each vehicle. Too much math and science makes it impossible for chuckleheads.
It would be very biting when described as "Savings per 100 miles".
"chuckleheads" my Dad's favorite word for "Morons"
Brought back memories,
Thanks...
 
When you drive an ICE vehicle, you see your cost of gas directly and it's obvious what poor mileage does to your gas bill.

When you drive an EV, that's often absorbed into your electric bill. It's invisible until you start making roadtrips.

Maybe a better way to express this would be a cost to operate estimate. For example: 15,000 miles/ year at $0.35/ kWh this car will cost $850/ year to run. It would be inaccurate specifically, but would give a rough idea of how much it costs to drive one car versus another.

When I listed the reasons why Wh/mile matters so much, I didn't even mention the cost of the electricity! Because even an inefficient EV has a low cost to fuel compared to ICE. And if ICE drivers don't care whether they buy a 20 mpg or 35 mpg vehicle, they sure aren't going to care about how much more it costs to charge and inefficient EV vs. an efficient one. My whole point was that Wh/mile matters so much more than just the cost to fuel even if most consumers don't understand that because it shows up on how competitively the car can be priced and how it drives.

Currently, the cost savings of not needing a big battery (or the value of having a longer range) is not going to the consumer, but to Tesla in the form of juicy margins. And that will be true as long as Tesla is production constrained. Then Tesla will lower prices a little and still be production constrained. And so on. That's why I say Tesla is production constrained as far as the eye can see. This is the "pricing power" advantage Tesla has that I have been hammering home for over a year now and it's only partially due to their Wh/mile efficiency advantage. When other makers catch up to their Wh/mile efficiency (assuming they do), Tesla will still have a pricing power advantage due to corporate efficiency and manufacturing efficiency.

I believe the eMPG EPA window sticker number is based upon the cost to charge vs. the cost to buy a gallon of fuel. In the US, the window sticker will also tell you how much it costs to fuel a given vehicle for a year, based on nationwide averages but the cost of the electricity is just the tip of the iceberg as pointed out above.

In any case, Tesla has recently addressed the fact that electricity cost is often absorbed into your home electric bill and is largely invisible. If you look under "Charge Stats" of your Tesla App. it has been updated to show you how much you charged in the last month, how much it cost you based on average electric rates in your area (user customizable), how much you charged at Superchargers (and how much it cost you), and how much you charged at other locations and how much it cost you (also user customizable). It then totals these costs for the last month period and compares it to how much you would have spent on fuel (based on average rates in your area) if you drove a comparable ICE vehicle.

IMO, there is no compelling reason or reasons to think "the competition" can "catch up" to Tesla (and that's true even if they started making cars with comparable Wh/mile efficiency numbers). Efficiency can only be improved only a little more beyond the current state of the art, but the same cannot be said for cost to produce. Legacy can learn to copy Tesla's electrical engineering, their BMS effectiveness and even start making their cars more aerodynamic. This is relatively easy compared to copying Tesla's corporate efficiency and their manufacturing efficiency and these things are what will drive Tesla's success as an automaker for many years to come. Their current advantage in Wh/mi efficiency is a shorter-term benefit that is driving margins higher by increasing their pricing power advantage.

Most of Wall Street still doesn't understand this. The good news for TSLA investors is that Wall Street will learn what we already know incrementally, each time Tesla reports quarterly numbers. Because that's all Wall Street really understands, money.

The fact that TSLA didn't appreciate after last quarters blow-out numbers has to be attributed to the overall market mood and perhaps some strategic positioning of big money players and MM's who don't have Tesla's best interests in mind. Volatility will remain high as these players continue to drive TSLA too high, followed by too low. Because they like profits which is just another way to say they like volatility.
 
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I find it incredibly amusing that legacy auto and young EV companies have been spending money and time advertising, hyping their products non-stop, etc......only not be able to ramp production in any meaningful way during a hyper charged inflection point of EV adoption.

As I said over a year ago, the only way to parse that observation in a way that makes logical sense is as follows:

Legacy auto is not aiming their advertising at car buyers, but at the billions of government dollars they think will be available for companies worthy of it. Their advertising is aimed squarely at making them appear to be sincere in their efforts to electrify, without actually having to electrify in any meaningful way. This has the added advantage of retaining customer loyalty. They don't want to be seen as dinosaurs who are greedily fighting against electrification. They already know that perception can only lead to certain failure while the perception that they are leading the difficult charge to electrification will encourage the government to help them. Because the government is comprised of regular people who watch regular commercials and have to make car purchase decisions themselves. This EV advertising campaign is all about corporate image and not at all about making money by selling more EV's.
 
When I listed the reasons why Wh/mile matters so much, I didn't even mention the cost of the electricity! Because even an inefficient EV has a low cost to fuel compared to ICE. And if ICE drivers don't care whether they buy a 20 mpg or 35 mpg vehicle, they sure aren't going to care about how much more it costs to charge and inefficient EV vs. an efficient one. My whole point was that Wh/mile matters so much more than just the cost to fuel even if most consumers don't understand that because it shows up on how competitively the car can be priced and how it drives.

Currently, the cost savings of not needing a big battery (or the value of having a longer range) is not going to the consumer, but to Tesla in the form of juicy margins. And that will be true as long as Tesla is production constrained. Then Tesla will lower prices a little and still be production constrained. And so on. That's why I say Tesla is production constrained as far as the eye can see. This is the "pricing power" advantage Tesla has that I have been hammering home for over a year now and it's only partially due to their Wh/mile efficiency advantage. When other makers catch up to their Wh/mile efficiency (assuming they do), Tesla will still have a pricing power advantage due to corporate efficiency and manufacturing efficiency.

I believe the eMPG EPA window sticker number is based upon the cost to charge vs. the cost to buy a gallon of fuel. In the US, the window sticker will also tell you how much it costs to fuel a given vehicle for a year, based on nationwide averages but the cost of the electricity is just the tip of the iceberg as pointed out above.

In any case, Tesla has recently addressed the fact that electricity cost is often absorbed into your home electric bill and is largely invisible. If you look under "Charge Stats" of your Tesla App. it has been updated to show you how much you charged in the last month, how much it cost you based on average electric rates in your area (user customizable), how much you charged at Superchargers (and how much it cost you), and how much you charged at other locations and how much it cost you (also user customizable). It then totals these costs for the last month period and compares it to how much you would have spent on fuel (based on average rates in your area) if you drove a comparable ICE vehicle.

IMO, there is no compelling reason or reasons to think "the competition" can "catch up" to Tesla (and that's true even if they started making cars with comparable Wh/mile efficiency numbers). Efficiency can only be improved only a little more beyond the current state of the art, but the same cannot be said for cost to produce. Legacy can learn to copy Tesla's electrical engineering, their BMS effectiveness and even start making their cars more aerodynamic. This is relatively easy compared to copying Tesla's corporate efficiency and their manufacturing efficiency and these things are what will drive Tesla's success as an automaker for many years to come. Their current advantage in Wh/mi efficiency is a shorter-term benefit that is driving margins higher by increasing their pricing power advantage.

Most of Wall Street still doesn't understand this. The good news for TSLA investors is that Wall Street will learn what we already know incrementally, each time Tesla reports quarterly numbers. Because that's all Wall Street really understands, money.

The fact that TSLA didn't appreciate after last quarters blow-out numbers has to attributed to the overall market mood and perhaps some strategic positioning of big money players and MM's who don't have Tesla's best interests in mind. Volatility will remain high as these players continue to drive TSLA too high, followed by too low. Because they like profits which is just another way to say they like volatility.
"Culture eats strategy for Breakfast"
 
It's ironic that even the battle hardened TSLA folks get affected just a little when it goes down $400+ in 3 months :)

Speaking for myself of course :)

I don't feel affected when TSLA goes down $400 in 3 months. That's probably because I don't consider myself "battle-hardened" by TSLA. If anything, I feel soft and spoiled by the kind of low-risk, easy returns TSLA has provided me, and I believe will continue to provide me. This is about the fourth to the eighth stock I have felt this way about (it depends upon where I draw the line), but TSLA is the best of the bunch in terms of risk/reward (regardless of a few of them having provided me with higher returns on percentage basis). The advantage of low risk/high reward opportunities is it allows the investment of a larger portion of your investable capital.

None of them had a risk/reward ratio this favorable and that is a direct result of the natural barriers to entry of the auto business being much higher than that of software, cellular, food and beverage, retail and financial, etc. Here's an important observation:

Elon Musk picks industries to disrupt that are particularly difficult to scale the natural barriers to entry. Software/Internet companies were too easy, not challenging enough. Both Zip2 and X.com had very low barriers to entry and the profits were insane. An ordinary person would have said "Well, that worked well, let's keep doing the same kind of thing." That was not a big enough challenge for Elon Musk, he said let's disrupt space, automobile manufacturing and insurance, tunnel boring, humanoid robots and brain-computer interface neuroprosthetics.

The bigger the challenge and the larger the barriers to entry, the more staying power a company's hard-fought dominance will have, once established. And that is why legacy auto had gradually become embarrassing bloated and inefficient over many decades. Because they could. Until they couldn't and it was too late. Tesla is still in the first inning of their dominance. I trust this will not be a problem for Tesla until long beyond 2040 because they have only just begun increasing their lead.
 
When I listed the reasons why Wh/mile matters so much, I didn't even mention the cost of the electricity! Because even an inefficient EV has a low cost to fuel compared to ICE. And if ICE drivers don't care whether they buy a 20 mpg or 35 mpg vehicle, they sure aren't going to care about how much more it costs to charge and inefficient EV vs. an efficient one. My whole point was that Wh/mile matters so much more than just the cost to fuel even if most consumers don't understand that because it shows up on how competitively the car can be priced and how it drives.

Currently, the cost savings of not needing a big battery (or the value of having a longer range) is not going to the consumer, but to Tesla in the form of juicy margins. And that will be true as long as Tesla is production constrained. Then Tesla will lower prices a little and still be production constrained. And so on. That's why I say Tesla is production constrained as far as the eye can see. This is the "pricing power" advantage Tesla has that I have been hammering home for over a year now and it's only partially due to their Wh/mile efficiency advantage. When other makers catch up to their Wh/mile efficiency (assuming they do), Tesla will still have a pricing power advantage due to corporate efficiency and manufacturing efficiency.

I believe the eMPG EPA window sticker number is based upon the cost to charge vs. the cost to buy a gallon of fuel. In the US, the window sticker will also tell you how much it costs to fuel a given vehicle for a year, based on nationwide averages but the cost of the electricity is just the tip of the iceberg as pointed out above.

In any case, Tesla has recently addressed the fact that electricity cost is often absorbed into your home electric bill and is largely invisible. If you look under "Charge Stats" of your Tesla App. it has been updated to show you how much you charged in the last month, how much it cost you based on average electric rates in your area (user customizable), how much you charged at Superchargers (and how much it cost you), and how much you charged at other locations and how much it cost you (also user customizable). It then totals these costs for the last month period and compares it to how much you would have spent on fuel (based on average rates in your area) if you drove a comparable ICE vehicle.

IMO, there is no compelling reason or reasons to think "the competition" can "catch up" to Tesla (and that's true even if they started making cars with comparable Wh/mile efficiency numbers). Efficiency can only be improved only a little more beyond the current state of the art, but the same cannot be said for cost to produce. Legacy can learn to copy Tesla's electrical engineering, their BMS effectiveness and even start making their cars more aerodynamic. This is relatively easy compared to copying Tesla's corporate efficiency and their manufacturing efficiency and these things are what will drive Tesla's success as an automaker for many years to come. Their current advantage in Wh/mi efficiency is a shorter-term benefit that is driving margins higher by increasing their pricing power advantage.

Most of Wall Street still doesn't understand this. The good news for TSLA investors is that Wall Street will learn what we already know incrementally, each time Tesla reports quarterly numbers. Because that's all Wall Street really understands, money.

The fact that TSLA didn't appreciate after last quarters blow-out numbers has to be attributed to the overall market mood and perhaps some strategic positioning of big money players and MM's who don't have Tesla's best interests in mind. Volatility will remain high as these players continue to drive TSLA too high, followed by too low. Because they like profits which is just another way to say they like volatility.
Nice post!

I was actually more thinking in terms of average cost to own more in terms of comparing one EV to the another. The current idea of coaching it in terms of virtual miles/ gallon is silly and only useful when you are comparing to ICE vehicles which will not be a thing in the future. In 10 years when we see stickers with "eMPG" on them, they will look completely ridiculous.

As for the rest of your comment. Totally agree. It's why I've been slowly moving my long held Apple position over to Tesla. Wish I'd done it 2 years ago but better late than never.

Wall Street was very slow recognizing Apple's long term stickiness and recurring revenue stream for the font that it is. Tesla is only just emerging as a profit cyclone. Lots of people haven't caught on to the implications of Teslas margins paired with their massive growth.
 
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