Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I still miss Jack R. for his sometimes challenging insights.

Archive here on Youtube, in case anyone hasn't seen all of Uncle Jack's videos:

Jack Rickard - EVTV Friday Show - Index​

Some day, I will watch his episode on buying TSLA options....

Ceres!

 

[brantse]

That’s nice.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504659338035613714

... These Megapacks are worth a combined $420 million at the current individual price...

Simulation confirmed.

 

[Drezil]

Not the first time he's brought this up

Sandy Munro tests FSD Beta V9, thinks Tesla should use FLIR screens in its cars - Tesla Oracle

Vehicle teardown guru Sandy Munro tests FSD Beta V9 on a Tesla Model Y and thinks the automaker should adopt FLIR screens for display (video).

www.teslaoracle.com

Link is from July last year where while taking a ride in an FSD9 car he mentions he thinks they need FLIR.



He does say he has no investment in Teledyne just to defuse any suggestions he's pumping the tech for that reason.





Definitely FLIR. LIDAR is among the things he lists as crap in comparison.


FWIW FLIR can do some cool stuff... including stuff that'd be genuinely useful for FSD (for example it could see a deer approaching from the trees ahead and to the side on a rural road that the cameras can't see because your headlights aren't aimed at it and there's no street lights on most rural roads-- not to mention offering far better visibility through bad weather than either vision OR LIDAR can...).


That said, Sandy seems mostly to be impressed by a few specific applications of it-- and even goes so far as to confuse FLIR with night vision- which are two very different systems.... (one senses heat gradients.... the other is just massively amplifying faint visible light)... so he's right it's cool tech... and it CAN see stuff that regular cameras can't.

But that doesn't mean it'd be worth the cost and complexity (and potential drawbacks) of moving back to a sensor fusion model for Teslas current goals.



And since the mods generally dislike technical FSD discussion here, let me remind everyone this exists:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

One last note: the FLIR discussion is stupid.
FLIR is infrared. Modern cameras have an infrared-filter. Tesla said they now use the photon-count directly with V11 - thus circumventing the integrated IR-Filter. This gives every Tesla on the road FLIR-like capabilities.

So if Tesla should use that is a stupid discussion when you know how modern camera chips work.

 

[mongo]

One last note: the FLIR discussion is stupid.
FLIR is infrared. Modern cameras have an infrared-filter. Tesla said they now use the photon-count directly with V11 - thus circumventing the integrated IR-Filter. This gives every Tesla on the road FLIR-like capabilities.

So if Tesla should use that is a stupid discussion when you know how modern camera chips work.

Photon count skips the image processor that was adding 13mS of latency. It does not bypass the color filters in the camera itself, sensors still start with the same data. Yes, they could extend into the IR range, but that is a HW change, not OTA.

10.9 release notes :"Upgraded generalized static object network to use 10-bit photon count streams rather than 8-bit ISP tonemapped images by adding 10-bit inference support in the AI compiler stack. Improved overall recall by 3.9% and precision by 1.7%."

Around 1:20:00 on the third Lex interview

 

[WADan]

Sandy is a great Industrial/Mechanical Engineer , but is frankly out of his league when it comes to AI /Machine learning ... when Tesla hits the takeoff point and has established a decided strategic advantage(credit Nick Bostrom "Superintelligence") in autonomy it will be game over ... in future Sandy will shooting YT videos while being driven around in Tesla cybertruck admitting just how off base he was

When it comes to software/computer, Sandy is out of his league!

 

[GOVA]

There is value to his tear downs.

Just not a ton of value to a lot of his speculation. You just have to realize what his expertise is and take everything else with a grain of salt.

He’s opinionated and has no filters. That is a type of entertainment by itself.

No doubt. His teardowns have been excellent and I have seen them all to find out what is going in especially with MY. He needs not to talk about stuff he does not understand. That's all.

Nobody knows everything. You have to mix them together. Sandy understands exoskeleton applications and production scale paint shop costs that are critical to CT. Seems to me a good investor is looking for as much input from varied sources as can be had.

Most of the useful stuff surfaces here and that is what makes this forum a great source for digging in deeply. I still miss Jack R. for his sometimes challenging insights.

True. I think I watch most of them. Some better than others but overall it really helps with building the knowledge. Again, Munro knows what he knows. No need to offer expert 'advice' about things that are not his expertise.

Munro has been a great supporter but with latest points he's made it only shows his incompetence about the newest technology. Just stick to what you know best.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"Short and distort" is getting some real attention from the Justice Department. I wonder if the likes of Jim Chanos and his "journalists" like Linette Lopez at Business Insider are at all worried about securities fraud prosecution?

I would love to see the pay-for-headlines business model used by the bottom 1/4 of US business media come under some scrutiny as well.

Insight: How a Columbia professor became the scourge of activist short sellers

You may not have heard of Joshua Mitts, a young Columbia University professor who is making some powerful enemies on Wall Street.

www.reuters.com

 

[Drezil]

Photon count skips the image processor that was adding 13mS of latency. It does not bypass the color filters in the camera itself, sensors still start with the same data. Yes, they could extend into the IR range, but that is a HW change, not OTA.

Every phone since decades has similar camera-chips & a dedicated IR-Filter in Software. Some Apps allow you to circumvent the IR-Filter & you can "see" IR-Sources bright (TV-Remotes, modern "face-recognition"-stuff, etc.). A significant step of that "image processing" that is dropped is exactly to drop the IR-Range and do white-balance and many other things.
Karpathy talked about this in some presentation, but i am unable to find it with a quick google. I am not saying that it is FLIR-Level detail. But it is there & can be seen.

I tinkered with that stuff in my free time a lot (The wii-remotes have a small IR-Camera in them & you can do fun stuff if you setup some LEDs around your monitor ). Thats why i know that off-the-mill-cameras CAN see IR - it was a common "hack" to see if your IR-LEDs actually emit light.. because .. you can't see it


But we can agree to disagree. This is fine.

Now back to topic:
Who expects TSLA to go down today? I surely do. Max-Pain is way below SP, we had 3 green days. But i don't dare to call the bottom. Maybe 820? Maybe 850 & defend? What do you guys think?

 

[elasalle]

Hope EM is not planning to announce/go over Master Plan 3 in upcoming conference call

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Let's see how bad these clowns wanna hit 849. Gonna be a WILD day!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, if only @Unpilot had been here to see this: (Opening Cross spike)

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Guess I shoulda held onto my 3/18 $860c rather than settling for +5% on Wednesday. Certainly feels like we're heading for liftoff.

Where is @StarFoxisDown! to recalculate my forward PE?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now back to topic:
Who expects TSLA to go down today? I surely do. Max-Pain is way below SP, we had 3 green days. But i don't dare to call the bottom. Maybe 820? Maybe 850 & defend? What do you guys think?

Lol, I think that now MMs have sold a lot of low-strike Puts, and they are looking to kill them.

EDIT: I'd say the Institutional Buyers woke up at 10:00 ET (note that the Upper-BB is only a few $ above the current intraday high SP)

EDIT2: Now look to be defending the $900 Calls. Anybody have L2 quotes to tell us how big the "Sell Wall" is at $900? TIA.

Cheers!

 

[ZsoZso]

Ahh, it is so good to see the good old Mid-Morning-Dip returning
/s

ps: I'm sure MMs are hard at work on it, though...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Ahh, it is so good to see the good old Mid-Morning-Dip returning
/s

ps: I'm sure MMs are hard at work on it, though...

MMDs require tons of naked shorting by MM's. Would you be interested on doing that today? It's a witching Friday and we could be at 920 by Monday open.

I think we're in the short covering window for MM's ahead of all the 1Q numbers.

 

[Discoducky]

Is it just me, or has volume increased? 7.2M right now

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Told a friend who started investing in $TSLA this year about TMC in January:

"Wow, what a bunch of well-informed, welcoming investors"

Last week:

"I sense a lot of bickering going on at TMC, is there any reason why?"

 

[Unpilot]

Lol, I think that now MMs have sold a lot of low-strike Puts, and they are looking to kill them.

EDIT: I'd say the Institutional Buyers woke up at 10:00 ET (note that the Upper-BB is only a few $ above the current intraday high SP)

EDIT2: Now look to be defending the $900 Calls. Anybody have L2 quotes to tell us how big the "Sell Wall" is at $900? TIA.

View attachment 782502

Cheers!

I'm here....just in "lurk" mode till Ukraine is free.

 

[Drezil]

EDIT2: Now look to be defending the $900 Calls. Anybody have L2 quotes to tell us how big the "Sell Wall" is at $900? TIA.

Big.

I see ~36k stocks there (all i see up to ~1000 is 120k in total). Nothing that can't be broken, though.

What i compare most is what i see on "both sides". Up to 901 there are 60k in total. 60k on total on the bid side go down to 832. So from a L2-viewpoint 901 and 832 are "equal distant". Now look at the SP: 890 (as i write this). Maybe selling 905c is safe today But im not gonna play with THAT fire

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Volume is fading a bit. I'd be VERY impressed if these guys can do an 850 close. Would probably lever up at 3:55 selling shares for LEAPs.