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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I've heard it plenty of times and it's complete nonsense.
Perhaps, but it's exactly what the world needs - combine carrier with device, usable globally without shenanigans about calling plans, linked to car and other devices (like your humanoid robot), etc.

I'd ditch my iPhone for one and I'd be 14th in line (like my Model S) even though everyone would say it would never work, which we've heard before...
 
I expect every cellphone tower will have a Starlink dish installed on the top, as a backup. Whenever there are land-based internet/voice outages, they can use the dish to get data/signals back and forth. How many cellphone towers are there around the world?
Unlikely. Most cost-effective use case for Starlink, OneWeb, and Kuiper is in remote areas where the cost to deliver service is too great. There are other backup solutions for towers today that are more cost-effective. Backup to a cell tower requires a lot of bandwidth.
 
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Perhaps, but it's exactly what the world needs - combine carrier with device, usable globally without shenanigans about calling plans, linked to car and other devices (like your humanoid robot), etc.

I'd ditch my iPhone for one and I'd be 14th in line (like my Model S) even though everyone would say it would never work, which we've heard before...
But it isn't going to exist in the short term so discussing it is pointless. It's another internet invention. Ignore and move on. Also not relevant to to this thread.
 
Personally spending more time following the Ukraine war than Tesla recently. Came across this twitter post from Ukraine with the same old arguments about EV's in disaster areas.

Oh my God an abandoned car in a war zone! Someone found big foot and should take plenty of pictures because you never see abandon vehicles in a war zone. /sssssssssss
 
Personally spending more time following the Ukraine war than Tesla recently. Came across this twitter post from Ukraine with the same old arguments about EV's in disaster areas.


That Ukrainian Tesla's owner should have paid someone with a big truck to pull him in the desired direction. Regen could top off the battery that way. Remember to always carry tow straps in a war zone.
 
My wife, Michelle has been trading $TSLA price swings in a 7-digit all-Tesla Roth IRA (with Roth "margin" [no loans just don't have to wait for cash settlement]) for almost 2 years now. On Friday, she and I decided after the +18% run-up in one week that $900 for $TSLA (triple options expiration) with ~$900 "max pain" inflicted by the Market Makers on the options traders was a good short term sell price ($901.88). Thus we moved this entire account to cash before the closing bell. We had also decided we didn't want to be sitting on this pile of shares over the weekend, fearing that Putin Hitler would "double down" on his Ukrainian war crimes. Now, we've never sat on so much cash before, so it feels weird to me. She says, "cash is king!"

We still have more shares than this Roth in other accounts, including all our shares with a $6-$10 split-adjusted basis from 2011-2012. The wife thinks $TSLA will see < $800 again, so if/when that happens, we'll capture ~12% extra shares.

I figure that "worst case" if this proves to be bad timing, it will give us an opportunity to finally diversify away from our 80% $TSLA position concentration. If $TSLA runs up away from $900, then we'll just load up on some of the beaten-down large cap tech stocks at the appropriate time and ride them back up, instead.

I'm evaluating TD Ameritrade's "Think or swim" desktop trading platform to replace Fidelity's Active Trader Pro. Would anyone using it care to share the most useful features for you? It seems to have a very steep learning curve!

Thanks!
Russ
TOS is the only platform I've used since I first learned of options a few years ago. If you reach out to your TDA rep they will put you in touch with someone to train you or answer questions for free about TOS. I was suppose to have an hour but the guy got so into helping me we went 90 minutes.
 
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Backup to a cell tower requires a lot of bandwidth.

SpaceX already sells a much higher bandwidth solution for only $500 per month: (ideal for cellular networks)

 
After the chips-problem there is a big new problem for European brands.
Tl;dr:
The electric cable-harnesses of half the European auto-industry are being produced near Lviv in the Ukraine.
BMW (owner of Mini) and Volkswagen (Skoda, Audi, Porsche, etc.), are being forced to slow down or stop their production.

This shows again the enormous strength of Tesla's vertical integration versus the 'old auto method'.

The article in the NRC newspaper, translated from Dutch:
Anyone who has ordered a Mini had a chance of bad news in recent days. The waiting time for a new car has risen to three months. This time, the delay was not due to the chip shortage that has plagued the auto industry for months. The cause lies in the town of Stryi, just south of Lviv, Ukraine. There is a factory where mostly women work with wires, cables and scissors. They make electrical cabling for cars. But the war has completely disrupted production – and with it half of the European car industry.

As a result, the sector is already entering another crisis, which once again demonstrates the high vulnerability of long and complex supply chains. Cars often contain kilometers of electrical cables for automatically opening the trunk to the lights on the dashboard. A so-called harness keeps those cables together, and this cheap part comes mainly from a handful of factories in western Ukraine.

BMW and Volkswagen
Production at many of these factories is now severely disrupted, as are connections to Western Europe. Unlike some chips, cables cannot be installed after a car is built. Many manufacturers, including BMW (owner of Mini) and Volkswagen (including Skoda, Audi, Porsche), have therefore been forced to reduce or shut down their production. VDL Nedcar, the car factory of VDL that builds Minis for BMW in Born in Limburg, will also be shut down until the end of March.

The difficulties surrounding the Ukrainian factories have replaced the chip crisis as the biggest problem, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess said on Tuesday. "The question is whether our forecasts for the future are still correct." BMW lowered its profit margin forecast on Wednesday.

Dependence on Western Ukraine arose in recent decades. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region proved to be a favorite as a production location for many cable companies. The best known is the German Leoni, which has two factories, employing more than 7,000 people. The Japanese Fujikura also has a factory there.

Complex handicrafts
Western Ukraine is relatively close to many European car factories. Normally, a truck drives to the Volkswagen factories in Germany in a few days. Another advantage of Ukraine: the wage costs are relatively low, and the work fits in well with the technical training of a substantial part of the Ukrainians. Merging cables in a sheath is not as easy as it seems at first glance. It is quite complex manual work, requiring many types of tools and many electronic tests. The Financial Times wrote this week that especially women work in the factories, because their often smaller hands and finer motor skills are better suited for this precision work.

The current situation at Leoni's factories is not clear. However, the firm warned investors that revenue and profit will be lower than previously reported. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Leoni had expressed a turnover forecast for the country of 300 million euros.

With the 'cable crisis', automakers are now confronted with the vulnerability in their supply chain for the third time in a short time. During the first corona wave and the chip crisis after it, it became clear how quickly a disruption of that chain can stop assembly.

The major car manufacturers are now diligently looking for alternatives. Volkswagen is said to have put a team of as many as 150 people on the issue. They are looking, among other things, at other locations in or near Europe where cable sheaths are produced. Such factories are also located in North Africa. Moving machines and personnel from Ukraine to neighboring countries such as Romania is another option, according to the Financial Times. Yet they do not seem completely convinced at Volkswagen that the problem will be solved quickly. CEO Diess said his group should consider European production if the war in Ukraine continues. “We definitely need to think about additional investment in the US and other continents.”
 
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SpaceX already sells a much higher bandwidth solution for only $500 per month: (ideal for cellular networks)

That's quite an uplift in price for the claimed speed increase. I just ran a couple of speed tests on my 'regular' Starlink and got 273Mbps down, 17Mbps up and 26ms ping. It does vary of course, but those are pretty solid numbers and have improved recently here with more of the sky being opened up to dishy, presumably because of some sort of firmware or constellation update.

I've been waiting for decent broadband in my area for over 30 years and ironically a few months after Starlink arrived, a new provider turns up in our town and puts FTTP everywhere, so I can now get 900Mbps up and down for £59/month or 2000Mbps for £99/month.

I do find it a bit suspicious that after so many promises of high speed broadband in many under-served areas of the UK, along comes Starlink and suddenly Openreach and other providers magically find the money to put FTTC/FTTP in. I like to think Starlink was the catalyst. Hopefully I'll be able to donate my dishy to someone more deserving. Some ex-UK dishies have made their way to Ukraine...
 
After the chips-problem there is a big new problem for European brands.
Tl;dr:
The electric cable-harnesses of half the European auto-industry are being produced near Lviv in the Ukraine.
BMW (owner of Mini) and Volkswagen (Skoda, Audi, Porsche, etc.), are being forced to slow down or stop their production.

This shows again the enormous strength of Tesla's vertical integration versus the 'old auto method'....
I suspect that in the near distant future, there will appear to be more and more of these supply shortages, similar to what we've seen with "chips". One that I've expected eventually, besides batteries and battery materials, includes power semiconductors (IGBT's and MOSFET's). These are the equivalent of computer proceesors for power conversion (inverters). With the simultaneous explosion of solar and EV's, these are extremely critical components that will be in high demand for a long time.

It's challenging to figure out all the players in this space, let alone who will be the big winners, but I've recently started a position in Infineon Technologies, who has been a supplier to Tesla in the past. I can't say for certain that they still are.
 
It's challenging to figure out all the players in this space, let alone who will be the big winners, but I've recently started a position in Infineon Technologies, who has been a supplier to Tesla in the past. I can't say for certain that they still are.
Interesting you name Infineon. That is basically the only post Berlin-Wall success Story of a big company setting up shop in east Germany I know of - and not just "open a factory" there. Many other went bust - like cargo lifter..
I don't know if they are still headquartered there, but I've not heard different. They should be "close" to giga Berlin.
I know them, because nearly every ram chip used in my father's company was from Infineon (used i.e. in Samsung's ram-modules).

Could lead to quite interesting synergies with "sourcing parts locally" as Tesla always tries.