Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Once Giga Berlin model Y deliveries begin in EU is there going to be a price reduction?
If Model Y has no tariffs and taxes, how would it's price compare to Model 3 which will have tariffs/taxes?

With all the recent price increases...seems unlikely to me.

 

[samn]

Once Giga Berlin model Y deliveries begin in EU is there going to be a price reduction?
If Model Y has no tariffs and taxes, how would it's price compare to Model 3 which will have tariffs/taxes?

Until production can meet demand prices probably won't come down, and that isn't likely to happen for years. However, Tesla may be able to add an LFP-based Model Y SR or SR+ at a lower price in the meantime.

 

[EVDRVN]

Looks like Tesla has unlocked yet another way to increase automotive margins in 2022H1: (FSD, anyone?)

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "Apparently, according to my sources & multiple followers, Tesla will now allow US order holders to edit their configurations while remaining at their current price book. They've apparently allowed this for a few weeks now. Confirm with your local sales rep before making changes." / Twitter

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "I'm told (at least as of right now) US orders placed on or after August 1st, 2021 are now eligible to self-service configuration changes and remain in their order's current price book." / Twitter​

​

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "Be aware that making any changes to your order could change your estimated delivery time, so make sure you call a Tesla sales advisor before making any changes." / Twitter​

Pretty sure you can add FSD regardless this is about adding options. I think it's crazy they don't let anyone add (not remove) options in advance to any order regardless of the order date as it is just MORE profit. I would add $2K of options today if I was 100% sure it would not change my order base price.

 

[AudubonB]

Investor tour at Sparks.

Sorry - wrong year. It was 4 Jan 2017. And that's only a third of JBS:

 

[RobDickinson]

Once Giga Berlin model Y deliveries begin in EU is there going to be a price reduction?
If Model Y has no tariffs and taxes, how would it's price compare to Model 3 which will have tariffs/taxes?

They'll be using a high percentage of imported parts for these cars for now, and also not producing so many in a factory scaled for 500k, so the cost to build will be high, they wont reduce prices now.

 

[Congo Line]

Not that I find this really important in the grand scheme of things, but at least this guy´s buying power might actually move the market a bit:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505405327470067716

I'm surprised he still has dry powder left given how much he previously bought.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm surprised he still has dry powder left given how much he previously bought.

…potentially on margin

 

[Captkerosene]

Does Berlin still have the capability to ramp past 500K in the future? Is the water issue real or just smoke?

 

[RobDickinson]

500k give or take for now, any new lines/capacity will have to be budgeted for when that goes ahead.

 

[SageBrush]

Looks like Tesla has unlocked yet another way to increase automotive margins in 2022H1: (FSD, anyone?)

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "Apparently, according to my sources & multiple followers, Tesla will now allow US order holders to edit their configurations while remaining at their current price book. They've apparently allowed this for a few weeks now. Confirm with your local sales rep before making changes." / Twitter

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "I'm told (at least as of right now) US orders placed on or after August 1st, 2021 are now eligible to self-service configuration changes and remain in their order's current price book." / Twitter​

​

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "Be aware that making any changes to your order could change your estimated delivery time, so make sure you call a Tesla sales advisor before making any changes." / Twitter​

Stamp that with one huge CAVEAT EMPTOR

Even if it shows up in print on the Tesla website I am going to be skeptical.

 

[Cattledog]

Time for a bold over under!

Is Tesla going to produce over 500K in 3Q 2022 or under?

Like if over, disagree if under!

Aaaaaaaaand go!

I'll buy that vowel for Q4.

 

[EVDRVN]

Stamp that with one huge CAVEAT EMPTOR

Even if it shows up in print on the Tesla website I am going to be skeptical.

Yea you will need a notary stamped doc from sales before you even think about making a change and then it's like loading one in the chamber.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The WSJ published an article regarding Musk's ties to China. I'm not sure what to make of the risk to investors in Musk having two companies with very different market footprints and dealing with technology transfer. My sense is that this thread discounts the risk a bit too much, but your mileage may vary.

Most of the article seems to be stocked with some not-very-strong talking points from SpaceX's competitors, but the article does have a few people going on the record in support, including the House Minority Leader. For sure, yesterday's Washington Post article about 5,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine didn't hurt Musk's bona fides. And Musk's bipartisanship does sometimes pay dividends in unexpected ways.

Elon Musk’s Business Ties to China Create Unease in Washington

Tesla and SpaceX are at the center of discussions, with some lawmakers fearing Beijing could access secrets.

www.wsj.com

That article was a pure hit piece. It tried to tie things together, that in actually aren't tied together, just by following one unrelated sentence to another. If you aren't a very careful reader, you'll come away with the impression that Musk owes the Chinese money, that he had to put together a Chinese loan or else Tesla would go bankrupt, that China are stealing SpaceX secrets and other nefarious things. None of which are true, but the article tries hard to give that impression. These weren't "mistakes" the article writer made, they were intentional. This isn't journalism, it is psy-ops.

Elon knows well that the rest of the world (not just China) want SpaceX technology and they have as good internal security as any military defense contractor. For a simple example, as Elon himself has tweeted, SpaceX cannot hire any non-US citizens due to govt restrictions.

Tesla is quite different. It does not make anything directly militarily useful. Elon did indeed make a bargain with the devil (if you want to characterize China as such) but the bargain wasn't anything different than what any manufacturing company that manufactures in China has done. Tesla got to very quickly build a world class manufacturing operation in China, funded by China, staffed with skilled, compliant workers and access to (eventually) the world's biggest auto market, as well as access to cheap locally produced components, and access to LFP battery technology (which only the Chinese had) in exchange for ... Chinese workers looking over the shoulder at Tesla's amazing factory with the hopes that they can replicate something approximating it for a local Chinese company.

In the short term (next five years), Tesla got the better deal. In the long term, who knows. Maybe Geely or BYD or whoever will use Tesla's technology and manufacturing prowess against them. Eventually. But I actually doubt it.

Tesla has a culture of fast innovation. By the time anyone copies anything Tesla has made, Tesla is one or two steps beyond that. In addition, Tesla still has two moats, one existing, one about to come online. Superchargers and FSD. No one is copying either (you'll note that all FSD development is here in the US).

 

[Sofie]

Not that I find this really important in the grand scheme of things, but at least this guy´s buying power might actually move the market a bit:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505405327470067716

I missed that guy lol! Good to see he’s well.
Is he Singaporean? Where did he get his wealth from again? It’s definitely not the oil business maybe it was real estate.

 

[FireMedic]

I missed that guy lol! Good to see he’s well.
Is he Singaporean? Where did he get his wealth from again? It’s definitely not the oil business maybe it was real estate.

This video from TMC’a own Dave Lee @heydave7 goes in depth about his history prior to Tesla as well as his investment thesis with respect to Tesla.

From what I remember he works a lot with derivatives; hopefully he didn’t get too beaten up the past few months. Seems a lot of savvy options traders saw this market coming and went market neutral.

Not this guy; long and strong (and too dumb for options).

 

[mongo]

Tesla is quite different. It does not make anything directly militarily useful. Elon did indeed make a bargain with the devil (if you want to characterize China as such) but the bargain wasn't anything different than what any manufacturing company that manufactures in China has done. Tesla got to very quickly build a world class manufacturing operation in China, funded by China, staffed with skilled, compliant workers and access to (eventually) the world's biggest auto market, as well as access to cheap locally produced components, and access to LFP battery technology (which only the Chinese had) in exchange for ... Chinese workers looking over the shoulder at Tesla's amazing factory with the hopes that they can replicate something approximating it for a local Chinese company.

Tesla did something very different than any other manufacturing company...
Tesla was the first foreign company to have a wholly self owned car factory versus a joint venture on China.
To your last point, US employees can brain drain/ sneaker net IP just as well as the Chinese, and they are. Plus, Tesla used offshore suppliers for Fremont.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The WSJ published an article regarding Musk's ties to China. I'm not sure what to make of the risk to investors in Musk having two companies with very different market footprints and dealing with technology transfer. My sense is that this thread discounts the risk a bit too much, but your mileage may vary.

Most of the article seems to be stocked with some not-very-strong talking points from SpaceX's competitors, but the article does have a few people going on the record in support, including the House Minority Leader. For sure, yesterday's Washington Post article about 5,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine didn't hurt Musk's bona fides. And Musk's bipartisanship does sometimes pay dividends in unexpected ways.

Elon Musk’s Business Ties to China Create Unease in Washington

Tesla and SpaceX are at the center of discussions, with some lawmakers fearing Beijing could access secrets.

www.wsj.com

WSJ has been pro-Elon and pro-Tesla for some time now, so this article is a bit of a head scratcher. I would have expected something like this from WaPo or NYT which are both virulently anti-Elon and anti-Tesla. I guess it just goes to show you can't trust any journalists, even ones you thought were friendly before.

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla is quite different. It does not make anything directly militarily useful.

Wonder if Optimus will change this calculus?

 

[2daMoon]

I don't want to sell anything, buy anything, or process anything as a career. I don't want to sell anything bought or processed, or buy anything sold or processed, or process anything sold, bought, or processed, or repair anything sold, bought, or processed. I just want to hold my TSLA. OK, eventually I'll sell some of it, oh and I occasionally buy more, but TSLA isn't really processed is it? I definitely don't intend to process or repair TSLA.

So, let me sure I have this right...

You're saying, at least in these particular instances, that you feel the best process is no process?

 

[Accident]

After the chips-problem there is a big new problem for European brands.
Tl;dr:
The electric cable-harnesses of half the European auto-industry are being produced near Lviv in the Ukraine.
BMW (owner of Mini) and Volkswagen (Skoda, Audi, Porsche, etc.), are being forced to slow down or stop their production.

This shows again the enormous strength of Tesla's vertical integration versus the 'old auto method'.

The article in the NRC newspaper, translated from Dutch:
Anyone who has ordered a Mini had a chance of bad news in recent days. The waiting time for a new car has risen to three months. This time, the delay was not due to the chip shortage that has plagued the auto industry for months. The cause lies in the town of Stryi, just south of Lviv, Ukraine. There is a factory where mostly women work with wires, cables and scissors. They make electrical cabling for cars. But the war has completely disrupted production – and with it half of the European car industry.

As a result, the sector is already entering another crisis, which once again demonstrates the high vulnerability of long and complex supply chains. Cars often contain kilometers of electrical cables for automatically opening the trunk to the lights on the dashboard. A so-called harness keeps those cables together, and this cheap part comes mainly from a handful of factories in western Ukraine.

BMW and Volkswagen
Production at many of these factories is now severely disrupted, as are connections to Western Europe. Unlike some chips, cables cannot be installed after a car is built. Many manufacturers, including BMW (owner of Mini) and Volkswagen (including Skoda, Audi, Porsche), have therefore been forced to reduce or shut down their production. VDL Nedcar, the car factory of VDL that builds Minis for BMW in Born in Limburg, will also be shut down until the end of March.

The difficulties surrounding the Ukrainian factories have replaced the chip crisis as the biggest problem, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess said on Tuesday. "The question is whether our forecasts for the future are still correct." BMW lowered its profit margin forecast on Wednesday.

Dependence on Western Ukraine arose in recent decades. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region proved to be a favorite as a production location for many cable companies. The best known is the German Leoni, which has two factories, employing more than 7,000 people. The Japanese Fujikura also has a factory there.

Complex handicrafts
Western Ukraine is relatively close to many European car factories. Normally, a truck drives to the Volkswagen factories in Germany in a few days. Another advantage of Ukraine: the wage costs are relatively low, and the work fits in well with the technical training of a substantial part of the Ukrainians. Merging cables in a sheath is not as easy as it seems at first glance. It is quite complex manual work, requiring many types of tools and many electronic tests. The Financial Times wrote this week that especially women work in the factories, because their often smaller hands and finer motor skills are better suited for this precision work.

The current situation at Leoni's factories is not clear. However, the firm warned investors that revenue and profit will be lower than previously reported. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Leoni had expressed a turnover forecast for the country of 300 million euros.

With the 'cable crisis', automakers are now confronted with the vulnerability in their supply chain for the third time in a short time. During the first corona wave and the chip crisis after it, it became clear how quickly a disruption of that chain can stop assembly.

The major car manufacturers are now diligently looking for alternatives. Volkswagen is said to have put a team of as many as 150 people on the issue. They are looking, among other things, at other locations in or near Europe where cable sheaths are produced. Such factories are also located in North Africa. Moving machines and personnel from Ukraine to neighboring countries such as Romania is another option, according to the Financial Times. Yet they do not seem completely convinced at Volkswagen that the problem will be solved quickly. CEO Diess said his group should consider European production if the war in Ukraine continues. “We definitely need to think about additional investment in the US and other continents.”

The same company supplying the wiring harnesses to BMW and VAG, Leoni, is also a supplier to Tesla. Leoni has plants in multiple countries, so Freemont and Shanghai were not affected. BMW and VAG restarted production last week, and they should be at full production by now. Some production of the wiring harnesses was moved to Germany, with some still coming from Ukraine and imports from Romania, Mexico and China.

BMW is not expecting an impact to their production numbers, but automotive margin were lowered 1% due to higher energy and commodity prices.

BMW Sees Solid Auto Returns Despite Ukraine War, Chip Crisis — Bloomberg

BMW AG said operating returns for its automotive business will remain robust this year, even as the war in Ukraine and a global semiconductor shortage weigh on production.

apple.news

BMW: Wiederaufnahme der Fertigung in München und Dingolfing

BMW lässt die Bänder in den Werken München und Dingolfing im Laufe der nächsten Woche schrittweise wieder anlaufen.

www.merkur.de