Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

That number is so hard to comprehend.

Anyone have a sense of how to get there?

I assume we are talking 300 TWh in total, not 300 TWh per year.

Tesla's previous target was 3 TWh per year, I would not be surprised to see that bumped up into the range of 10-15 TWh per year, by 2040,

The CATL sodium battery tech is showing great promise.

If total world wide cell production is 30 TWh per year by 2040, then 300 TWh by 2050 is possible.
The vast bulk of that 30 TWh would be for energy storage batteries.

The 20 Million cars per year target for Tesla night be extended to a 40-50 Million cars per year target by 2040.

IMO 10 years years allows a 3X-5X increase on the 2030 targets, perhaps they will also aim to do more by 2030..

I can't wait for Master Plan 3, it should be good

 

[Artful Dodger]

That number is so hard to comprehend.

Anyone have a sense of how to get there?

Yup. Exponential growth. I layed it all out in detail here 3 years ago:

Mod's PPM #37 - The 'G-Cube' (July 29. 2019)​

I believe someone mentioned one of Tesla's targets, 3TWh is going to take raw materials equivalent to one Great Pyramid of Giza. They were comparing it to the 100 pyramids used each year by the steel industry.

So we'll basically need to take the amount of raw materials the steel industry uses in 1 yr and turn it into batteries. Easy peasy. Certainly easier than going to the Moon or killing off tens of millions of humans in a drawn out world war.

Star Trek times are just around the corner. What color jumpsuit you want?

Yeah, 3 TWh is ~80 Million tons of batteries, or 1 Great Pyramid's weight worth of batteries EVERY MONTH: (equal to 1/24 of World's 2020 steel output)

Exp. production req's one Great Pyramid of Giza worth of btys every month by 2030 (Aug 12, 2021)​

Cheers!

 

[Doit]

I think it's funny that the factory grounds are less than 2.5 miles (less than 4 km) from the Berlin state line and yet some people are getting all technical and saying "It's not actually in Berlin.", even though we all know it's not physically within the State of Berlin.

Well, guess what? Stateline, Idaho is not actually on the state line between Washington and Idaho (it's 211 feet away). That was a huge disappointment to me the first time I visited. I briefly considered suing the municipality for misrepresenting their location but we were on vacation and my wife talked me out of it.

Question:
If the description of major attraction of Stateline is accurate according to Wikipedia: Stateline, Idaho, why did you bring your wife with you over there?

The city is known for the adult services it provides ...

 

[jhm]

Back the napkin:

Replace 2 billion vehicles @ 100kWh/veh = 200TWh

The grid needs about 50% of that, another 100TWh, about 30 hours of storage on 3.3TW average power consumption.

Total 300TWh.

In steady state, replace about 5% per year and grow 3% per year, so long-term term capacity is about 24 TWh per annum on current base, but 30 TWh pa by 2030. Need to grow faster than 50% pa to get to that scale by 2030.

Seemingly Tesla is targeting a 10% share of the battery market by early 2030, about 3TWh pa capacity.

I dunno, Elon is a bit of an underachiever.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Back the napkin:

Replace 2 billion vehicles @ 100kWh/veh = 200TWh

The grid needs about 50% of that, another 100TWh, about 30 hours of storage on 3.3TW average power consumption.

Total 300TWh.

In steady state, replace about 5% per year and grow 3% per year, so long-term term capacity is about 24 TWh per annum on current base, but 30 TWh pa by 2030. Need to grow faster than 50% pa to get to that scale by 2030.

Seemingly Tesla is targeting a 10% share of the battery market by early 2030, about 3TWh pa capacity.

I dunno, Elon is a bit of an underachiever.

With exponential growth, if Tesla achieves 3 TWh/yr production by 2030, they can simply extend the business development cycle to reach 30 TWh/yr before 2036.

We need this to be solution to be in place and functional ~10 years before the 1.5C climate deadline of 2050 (to allow thermal equilibrium to be reached in the climate system). So we're already cutting it close for 2050.

Wildcards are still unknown positive feedbacks like sudden loss of Summer Arctic sea ice. We might not have until 2050, but that only means we have to move faster.

This is the world's dumbest experiment. Thanks, Exxon. /S

 

[thesmokingman]

Anyone else notices how Deutsche Bank most often seems to have login issues on days where TSLA is up big time?

I dunno if its a coincidence, but let me put on my tin foil hat for a second. Ever see Schwab's rating for Tesla? I was just looking in my account at the glorious movement up today when I paused and noticed its rating. It's rated a D, smh. And they have it as a SELL too, lmao.

• Current Rating: D
• Underperform as of 03/18/2022*
  Percentile Ranking = 87

 

[UnknownSoldier]

2 million dollars worth of TSLA just purchased by the greatest stock picker in the world ;-)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506442526995140610

Why can't this guy tell us Pelosi's husband did such and such THE DAY he did it, instead of a week later?

 

[Ogre]

Why can't this guy tell us Pelosi's husband did such and such THE DAY he did it, instead of a week later?

Who cares?

The exercised calls to buy the shares. So their effective exposure is unchanged. 2 weeks ago they owned 25 calls. Today they own 2500 shares. Every dollar Tesla goes up they make 2500 either way. (At least that close to expiration its pretty damned close to the same)

 

[MikeC]

I dunno if its a coincidence, but let me put on my tin foil hat for a second. Ever see Schwab's rating for Tesla? I was just looking in my account at the glorious movement up today when I paused and noticed its rating. It's rated a D, smh. And they have it as a SELL too, lmao.

• Current Rating: D
• Underperform as of 03/18/2022*
  Percentile Ranking = 87

It's actually trending up - it was an F at Schwab for years until fairly recently.

 

[thesmokingman]

It's actually trending up - it was an F at Schwab for years until fairly recently.

I know but still it's lol worthy.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I dunno if its a coincidence, but let me put on my tin foil hat for a second. Ever see Schwab's rating for Tesla? I was just looking in my account at the glorious movement up today when I paused and noticed its rating. It's rated a D, smh. And they have it as a SELL too, lmao.

• Current Rating: D
• Underperform as of 03/18/2022*
  Percentile Ranking = 87

I have Schwab and the Schwab ratings for stocks are not based on anything like growth or appreciation or whatever. I respect the Schwab ratings for what they are, but they are not what I'm looking for when investing.

 

[Singuy]

It's actually trending up - it was an F at Schwab for years until fairly recently.

Morningstar rating for Tesla has always been garbage as well. The thing is if everyone points to a stock and say it's a buy, then it was already bought...leaving you with a buy price of ATH. That's not how you get wealthy in the market.

 

[WADan]

I dunno if its a coincidence, but let me put on my tin foil hat for a second. Ever see Schwab's rating for Tesla? I was just looking in my account at the glorious movement up today when I paused and noticed its rating. It's rated a D, smh. And they have it as a SELL too, lmao.

• Current Rating: D
• Underperform as of 03/18/2022*
  Percentile Ranking = 87

And they want to manage my money. Hahaha

 

[saniflash]

Morningstar rating for Tesla has always been garbage as well. The thing is if everyone points to a stock and say it's a buy, then it was already bought...leaving you with a buy price of ATH. That's not how you get wealthy in the market.

also great -- TSLA's ESG rating on IBKR --- 4/10. Of course that makes sense /s

 

[SageBrush]

That number is so hard to comprehend.
Anyone have a sense of how to get there?

I was thinking about when

World 2020 Li-x battery production was ~ 0.5 TWh a year, and 50% CAGR seems like a high but obtainable growth rate.
Then future annual production
y - years from now
will be 0.5 * 1.5^y

To make things simpler, I ignore all but the last two years of accumulated production simply because of battery longevity and CAGR, so the when boils down to

300 = 0.5 * 1.5^y
less perhaps two years

Arithmetic time:
Ln(600) = Y * Ln(1.5)
6.4 = Y * .405
Y = 16 years

Bottom line ?
It's a 15 year time horizon

 

[StealthP3D]

I dunno if its a coincidence, but let me put on my tin foil hat for a second. Ever see Schwab's rating for Tesla? I was just looking in my account at the glorious movement up today when I paused and noticed its rating. It's rated a D, smh. And they have it as a SELL too, lmao.

• Current Rating: D
• Underperform as of 03/18/2022*
  Percentile Ranking = 87

I've been with Schwab for over 25 years and my best performers have most often been rated "D" or "F" when I bought them so I don't pay any attention to those ratings except out of occasional curiosity. TSLA was no exception as it was rated "F" the entire time in 2019 when I built my TSLA position at prices between ~ $36.xx-$50/share.

The formula is developed (and occasionally modified) based upon many things including past performance and appears to be designed to avoid potential risk rather than capturing and identifying superior future performers. I believe it uses statistical analysis of large numbers of stocks so it probably works best on companies that fit a more typical mold, not hypergrowth companies like TSLA.

Maybe it's useful for people who want a lot of diversity and don't want to actually understand the companies they invest in, but that's not a style of investing I can recommend because I think it has a high risk of having below-average returns.

 

[SageBrush]

Another take on 300 TWh battery ...

I estimate 10B people in the world, then per person

300E12 Wh / E10 people
= 3E4 Wh = 30 kWh per person

 

[SageBrush]

Maybe it's useful for people who want a lot of diversity and don't want to actually understand the companies they invest in, but that's not a style of investing I can recommend because I think it has a high risk of having below-average returns.

<<shrug>>
It's worked pretty well for a couple of generations of S&P long term investors

 

[StealthP3D]

<<shrug>>
It's worked pretty well for a couple of generations of S&P long term investors

You don't need Schwab ratings if you want to match the indexes. That's not my style of investing and there is no way I could have achieved what I have by using Schwab ratings.

 

[Baumisch]

Back the napkin:

Replace 2 billion vehicles @ 100kWh/veh = 200TWh

The grid needs about 50% of that, another 100TWh, about 30 hours of storage on 3.3TW average power consumption.

Total 300TWh.

This is the thing that boggles my mind - I am installing solar this year and a home-battery with 10kwh for ~500€/kwh - while at the same time my Model S is sitting in my Garage 99% of the week - and 100% of the nights (vacations/travel by car excluded).

If we all agree batteries are the limiting factor we should utilize the ones we have better