Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I read the "news" as Nikola is now assembling a truck.
That can easily be read as: two pieces have been put together

Well Cramer did just indicate what they're doing is "impressive" and that we need a good bit "more EV whatever".

I don't know what an "EV whatever" is, but it sounds important. And Nikola is apparently making it! Buy!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice to see Tesla reacting quickly to fix this 'fairness' issue: (fair to investors, that is)

"While you can still remove FSD Capability from an existing order, new wording has been added to accounts to say that removing it will delay your delivery."​

Tesla closes FSD Capability loophole that shortened delivery wait times for free

Tesla made a change to their website earlier this month that allowed customers to significantly shorten their delivery wait time by adding Full Self-Driving Capability to their order. In the case of a Model Y, […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

You take the product breadth as key, I see the "global presence" as key. Berlin is open, margins are fat, earnings will crush. I see an early May bump up.

If it weren't for earnings, I think you could see them hold off. But the insane EPS is now driving TSLA solidly to the $1-1.5T market cap range. Kind of embarrassing for a ratings agency to call that junk.

You take the "or" as key, I take Moody's at their "and". I doubt they'll move on a credit upgrade for Tesla before ALL all their (mutually exclusive) requirements are met. And then, S-L-O-W-L-Y... (so as to not upset the hedgies)

I call the requirements "mutually exclusive" because increasing product breath w/o also increasing total deliveries (impossible with chip+bty supply constraints) just decreases margins. Which is another thing Moody's "requires" before they'll upgrade.

Instead, Tesla will ingore Moody's "advice", and focus on building cars profitably. As Elon told us in Berlon on March 22nd, when supply constraints ease Tesla will deliver more models: The "Good" is measured by the total number of cars produced.

Nice racket for these Ratings Agencies though, wot? /s

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Speaking of embarrassing......this is the cutest MM capping effort I've ever seen. Good luck Kenny! Bless his little algo.

 

[thx1139]

Why did FUV jump today?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gee…….I wonder if they’re trying to prevent paying out those 1,000 Calls

Yeah, this is what I read from Moody's:

"To date, Tesla's product offering remains narrowly reliant on primarily two models, however.​

​

"The ratings could be upgraded if Tesla successfully expands its global footprint, maintains a strong competitive global presence as other automakers offer an increasing number of battery electric models, and improves its product breadth.​

Moody's - credit ratings, research, and data for global capital markets

at a certain point, investments funds that are not allowed to buy anything that’s not investment grade will start to make a lot of noise if Tesla is printing huge amounts of earnings/cash and still isn’t investment grade

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Gee…….I wonder if they’re trying to prevent paying out those 1,000 Calls

As a sold 1005c holder, I applaud their valiant efforts! They got no chance in hell tho.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon emphasized this important point in Berlin on March 22nd: (setting the priorities for Tesla over the next few years)

It's essential for us to really affect the future in a positive way. We have to make a lot of cars, that's the only way.​

​

If we add complexity but we don't add production volume, then we've not actually done anything more, because "the good" is a function of how many vehicles we're able to make.​

For investors, this is like ringing a cow bell. For Moody's, it goes straight over their heads.

Thanks, Lars. Appreciate your efforts, too!.

Cheers!

P.S. this video features a wonderfully concise 5-min rundown of all Tesla's major long term battery materials contracts for the decade. Here's a direct link:

Lars/BiT review of Tesla materials contracts for the 2020s (9:31)

Paging @jbcarioca

 

[Words of HABIT]

Any purchase of shares in the three digits will seem like a steal by the end of 2023.

 

[inconel]

So we have a compounded diversification issue. Our portfolio is concentrated in a company that is concentrated in their products offering. Scary!

/s

 

[Nocturnal]

Took advantage of that MMD with my small bit of trading shares today. Thanks MMs!

 

[thesmokingman]

Man, I hate listening to Niles from Satori on CNBC.

 

[JRP3]

Elon resigned from the board of Endeavor Group:

"On March 12, 2022, Elon Musk notified us of his resignation from our board of directors, effective June 30, 2022," Endeavor Group recently announced in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Musk will not be replaced.

Elon Musk Drops Hollywood, Beauty Pageant and UFC - TheStreet

The billionaire runs many companies at the same time, including SpaceX and Neuralink.

www.thestreet.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

So we have a compounded diversification issue. Our portfolio is concentrated in a company that is concentrated in their products offering. Scary!

/s

Lol, you misspelt 'diworsification'.

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As a sold 1005c holder, I applaud their valiant efforts! They got no chance in hell tho.

40 million shares traded yesterday and they were still able to bring it down to below 1,000. Macros up more than 1% and MM’s having zero issues capping the stock.

I think you’re safe

 

[TheTalkingMule]

40 million shares traded yesterday and they were still able to bring it down to below 1,000. Macros up more than 1% and MM’s having zero issues capping the stock.

I think you’re safe

We'll see. I realize plenty of volume can be actual profit taking, but IMO they're absorbing a lot of volume trying to hold $1000 this week.

I just don't see the algos coming to the conclusion it's worth the effort and additional risk down the line. Everything from Jan to now is unwinding. If anything, the MMD today was a great opportunity to buy Friday calls at $1020. Tho I wouldn't do such a thing since I'm a classy and sophisticated options seller now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla doesn't just use nickel in its cylindrical battery cells (non-LFP). Nickel is also a constituent (~15%) of stainless steel (Tesla Cybertruck, SpaceX Starship).

Not only that, but nickel is also an essential ingredient in Tesla's proprietary aluminum alloy (~5%) used in Gigapress, which makes the 1-piece auto body structures called 'megacastings':

Tesla’s aluminum alloys patent hints at ultra-tough EVs that are cheaper to produce

It is widely known that Tesla constantly innovates, from the software of its cars to the chemistry of the batteries that power them. And if a newly published patent application is any indication, it appears that Tesla’s innovations actually go all the way down to the metals used to build its...

www.teslarati.com

So, Tesla's long-term metals contracts (especially nickel) are especially important for their ability to grow production to "extreme size".

All the mines Tesla needs to build 20 million cars a year

Elon Musk has set a production target of 20 million vehicles annually before 2030. For starters: 23 Ambatovys at $8.5 billion a pop.

www.mining.com

The very existance of those long-term contracts clearly demonstrates Tesla's intentions for the future.

Cheers!

 

[redan]

Tesla Currently Up Eight Consecutive Days, On Pace for Longest Winning Streak Since January 2021 — Data Talk

www.morningstar.com

Interesting stock price facts, some of which put things into perspective on the crazy volatility ride we've been on and where we are right now:

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is currently at $1012.94, up $13.83 or 1.38%

--Would be highest close since Jan. 18, 2022, when it closed at $1030.51

--Currently up eight consecutive days; up 32.17% over this period

--Longest winning streak since Jan. 8, 2021, when it rose for 11 straight trading days

--Best eight day stretch since the eight days ending Nov. 3, 2021, when it rose 33.44%

--Up 16.37% month-to-date; on pace for best month since Oct. 2021, when it rose 43.65%

--Down 4.15% year-to-date

--Down 17.64% from its all-time closing high of $1229.91 on Nov. 4, 2021

--Up 58.18% from 52 weeks ago (March 25, 2021), when it closed at $640.39

--Down 17.64% from its 52-week closing high of $1229.91 on Nov. 4, 2021

--Up 79.77% from its 52-week closing low of $563.46 on May 19, 2021

 

[Ogre]

Elon emphasized this important point in Berlin on March 22nd: (setting the priorities for Tesla over the next few years)

For investors, this is like ringing a cow bell. For Moody's, it goes straight over their heads.

Thanks, Lars. Appreciate your efforts, too!.

Cheers!

P.S. this video features a wonderfully concise 5-min rundown of all Tesla's major long term battery materials contracts for the decade. Here's a direct link:

Lars/BiT review of Tesla materials contracts for the 2020s (9:31)

Paging @jbcarioca

This video focuses a lot on raw materials, but Ford, GM, Stellantis, VW, etc are all relying on outside battery manufacturers. They don’t care about nickel supply, that’s what their battery supplier deals with. None of them have long term battery contracts which will meet their needs either, but the emphasis on raw materials is a bit misplaced.

Their long term reliance on third parties to provide what they need is going to bite them hard as they keep increasing their demand for batteries and the battery suppliers keep bumping up prices each time they go to the well to increase volume.

Oddly, my big take-away from this video was the fact that legacy auto‘s over-emphasis on building out a lot of models is completely broken.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Paul is a bit miffed...

Tesla's invite-only Giga Fest at Gigafactory Texas draws concerns from local citizens

Tesla’s Giga Fest at Gigafactory Texas, an invite-only event, drew a handful of concerns from local citizens over noise complaints from fireworks testing and concerns regarding a lack of public engagement from the automaker as it nears the official opening of the factory. The April 7th event is...

www.teslarati.com

While the court unanimously approved Tesla’s application, which was submitted in February by the automaker, one concern was brought forward by a man named Paul, who has worked on the Colorado River Conservancy Project for “almost a full year.” Paul stated he represented the Environmental Justice Organization based in East Austin.
...
“My partner and I made cookies and made notes and took it to our neighbors and they were reciprocated with thoughtful items and how to if I need tree trimming to let [neighbors] next door know, and we shake hands. What if I moved to the neighborhood and said nothing to anyone for two years? What if I spent every day doing landscaping work and tearing down trees and building stuff and throwing dust all over my neighbors’ houses, and how about re-routing my driveway and discharging polluted water into our neighborhood creek and blocking the street with massive trucks?”