Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Just saw a commercial for Ram trucks that apparently you can buy online thru their "e shop" portal. Went on the site and it takes your zip code and sends you to the nearest dealership.

Literally none of these companies are going to survive.

 

[AudubonB]

On top of the split announcment, reveal of new Cedartruck will put stock over the top.

View attachment 787138

Fixed that for you. Danged cedar splits really easily, too.

 

[Skipdd]

Their hosting provider (won't name them) was completely offline along with all sites they host. So no direct attack or hack on TMC or anything.

Thank you for that. Hacking was my first fear. Then I was just vexed. I am addicted to this site, entirely too dependent on it. Have had Twitter for a long time, but never really spent time on it til today. Am going to broaden my review of things so I can find ways of getting some of this info from other places; the info shared here is too valuable to not have a back-up plan. I can’t believe I just wrote that. I will go one step further - I’d be willing to pony up more support for the site if it had a redundancy option/service - not even sure how that could be. Now you can all tell me how crazy I am..

 

[Zero CO2]

Thank you for that. Hacking was my first fear. Then I was just vexed. I am addicted to this site, entirely too dependent on it. Have had Twitter for a long time, but never really spent time on it til today. Am going to broaden my review of things so I can find ways of getting some of this info from other places; the info shared here is too valuable to not have a back-up plan. I can’t believe I just wrote that. I will go one step further - I’d be willing to pony up more support for the site if it had a redundancy option/service - not even sure how that could be. Now you can all tell me how crazy I am..

not crazy !!! ...what an empty feeling .. no TMC ... where do i get my real TSLA fix... You Tube. Twitter , ... i dont think so.... this is where the information that matters to our investment lives ... that was scary please don't let that happen again

 

[ggr]

I haven't (re)studied for my Series 7 since the mid-Pliocene, but I believe that your "(paying) taxes on the number of shares authorized" is a function of the par value of those authorized-but-not-issued shares. If I am correct, then declaring them to have No Par Value would then be blessed with that magical event when one multiplies anything by zero.
Two corollaries:
First, Par Value is a bizarre, antiquated concept that nowadays comes into its own when and only when a company declares bankruptcy. Neglect it.
Second and possibly important. By its Articles of Incorporation, Tesla declared that shares have a Par Value of 1¢ or 2¢ or possibly even $1 (I'm not going to look it up but I am 100% certain it was not zero. That could and likely does bear on any new shares created by a share dividend. Either Tesla would have to revise its Articles - yecch - or create a new class of shares - doubleyecch.
And so.....the Path of Least Resistance most likely is to cowboy up and pay those taxes. Probably a Grand Total of $49.23 and 31/47¢.

Back to you -

From the last 10k:

Stockholders' equity
Preferred stock; $0.001 par value; 100 shares authorized; no shares issued and outstanding			—				—
Common stock; $0.001 par value; 2,000 shares authorized; 1,033 and 960 shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively

Note that the numbers of shares are multiplied by 1,000,000.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Strong volume After-hrs (esp. for a Mon.) w. TSLA rising steadily into the 8 PM close:

Note that TSLA volume for the day was 127% of its average, while QQQ volume was just 74% of its average. I suspect that money is moving off the sidelines, and into TSLA.

TSLA After-Hours Quotes​

Data last updated Mar 28, 2022 08:00 PM ET.
This page will resume updating on Mar 29, 2022 04:00 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1,095.9 +4.06 (+0.37%)
After-Hours Volume	505,012
After-Hours High	$1,096 (07:57:04 PM)
After-Hours Low	$1,089.01 (04:06:03 PM)

QQQ chart below:

 

[SarahsDad]

Anyone want to take a guess when $1500 will be broken?

August 29th?

 

[wipster]

CNBS def tries hard ... Just take a look at the banner "Breaking Down Tesla's Tumultuous 2022"

Really? That's the best they can do?

Bullish!!

They don't even understand what Tesla is going to do! Look at their web headline (repeated several times in the article);
"Tesla wants to split its stock so it can pay a stock dividend; shares gain"

That's not what they're doing at all!

 

[wipster]

I could stick a few in the back yard and rent them out!

Unfortunately you can only use them in the Outback..

_s

 

[Ogre]

View attachment 787143

They are right.

Any advantage Tesla had from being the first mover in the EV space is fading.

The Lagacy Auto Kill Tesla game plan:

• First Mover Advantage
• Source hundreds of GWH of batteries (at a price which leaves room for positive margin)
• Match Tesla's production efficiency
• Make driver assist that doesn't suck
• Build a charging network that matches the Supercharger Network (Singly or collectively)
• Produce electric cars that are as efficient as a Tesla
• Ditch the dealer network everyone hates

After getting over that "First Mover" hump, should be a piece of cake right?

Of course if Tesla releases FSD & RoboTaxi anytime in the next 5 years none of that will matter. Also, Tesla is currently eating the auto-industry from the top down so profits they will have to accomplish those tasks will likely dwindle over time.

 

[ggr]

No.
Exact number of issued shares was, is and will stay irrelevant.
What matters is the split itself.
What matters is that those pulled-out-of-the-backside shares need to be bought on the free market.
A kind of a shorting reset that reveals truer share price.
Two for one accomplishes this as well as 20 for one does.

There is also a smallish can't-buy-partial-share problem that gets somewhat relieved by lowering the share price.
Just halving may not help much, 4 for 1 is better.
20 for 1 is not that much better anymore, better to do 5 for 1 twice in a year.

Patience

When you're a boxer, do you want to hit the opponent once really hard, or a few times with less force? That's really the difference you're referring to. (Note: I'm not a boxer and I don't know the correct answer to that question.) I bolded one sentence above, and I disagree with that.

Tesla currently has a bit over a billion shares authorized, let's round that off to an even 1 billion. Pretend that the stock price is $1000 at the time of the split, for easy arithmetic.

According to Ihor Dusaniwsky, 24.55 million shares shorted, let's round that off to 25 million.

Scenario 1: 2:1 split. Tesla issues another 1B shares for a total of 2B. But 25M people have shares that they think they own, but are really borrowed by the shorts. Stock price halves, to $500/share, shorts have to spend 25M * $500 to make those guys whole; that's $12.5B.

Scenario 2: 20:1 split. Tesla issues another 19B shares, total 20B. Price per share goes down to $50. But now the shorts have to come up with 25M * 19 shares each * $50, which is $23.75 billion.

So it hurts the shorts almost twice as much. Asymptotically, TSLA could split 500:1 (any more and NASDAQ might delist them if the stock falls below $2 for an extended period) and it would hurt the shorts almost $25B.

 

[SunCatcher]

Rob Maurer saying his prediction is for a 20:1 split.

 

[MP3Mike]

Scenario 1: 2:1 split. Tesla issues another 1B shares for a total of 2B. But 25M people have shares that they think they own, but are really borrowed by the shorts. Stock price halves, to $500/share, shorts have to spend 25M * $500 to make those guys whole; that's $12.5B.

Scenario 2: 20:1 split. Tesla issues another 19B shares, total 20B. Price per share goes down to $50. But now the shorts have to come up with 25M * 19 shares each * $50, which is $23.75 billion.

So it hurts the shorts almost twice as much. Asymptotically, TSLA could split 500:1 (any more and NASDAQ might delist them if the stock falls below $2 for an extended period) and it would hurt the shorts almost $25B.

No, they aren't hurt at all.

When shorting stock you have to put cash in "escrow" equal to the current value of the shares. (Which is adjusted every day.) So in scenario 1 they have $25B in escrow before the split, and after the split they have $12.5B of that returned to them, only to have to return it to secure the shares created as part of the split. The same for scenario 2. They get $23.75B of escrow back, just to use it again. Even the elusive naked shorts are in the same net zero situation, while they don't have any cash in an escrow account, the value of the shares they shorted doesn't change.

It is a net zero to the shorts, unless the stock price goes up as a result, in which they have to add money in to the escrow account.

 

[lafrisbee]

The 40 km convoy that was stagnant...
yeah Starlink did that...
So 30-40 Techniks and their quad moto-bikes were able to utilize Starlink to stop the convoy and ruin hitler's plans. I meant Pootin.
mentions Starlink after the 9 minute mark.

 

[lafrisbee]

The 40 km convoy that was stagnant...
yeah Starlink did that...
So 30-40 Techniks and their quad moto-bikes were able to utilize Starlink to stop the convoy and ruin hitler's plans. I meant Pootin.
mentions Starlink after the 9 minute mark.

Now can the "member" that went on a bit of "look at me I don't know much but I am going to poop on what elon did for Ukraine with Starlink" like to say a few words?

OH MAN!? Bees get all the press....
Anyway the script states how important being able to COMMUNICATE within small skilled groups to take down a much large force.

 

[AudubonB]

This news made me think for the very first time:
Rather than Tesla being the one to bring to the courts the Interstate Commerce Clause regarding unfair dealership practices, we might see the traditional automakers themselves being the ones forced to carry water for Tesla!

What a fascinating modern world we’re living in.

Gawd I love this post. If you haven't read it yet, do so.

 

[wtlloyd]

Rob Maurer saying his prediction is for a 20:1 split.

Truly, great minds think alike

 

[Cal1]

I haven't (re)studied for my Series 7 since the mid-Pliocene, but I believe that your "(paying) taxes on the number of shares authorized" is a function of the par value of those authorized-but-not-issued shares. If I am correct, then declaring them to have No Par Value would then be blessed with that magical event when one multiplies anything by zero.
Two corollaries:
First, Par Value is a bizarre, antiquated concept that nowadays comes into its own when and only when a company declares bankruptcy. Neglect it.
Second and possibly important. By its Articles of Incorporation, Tesla declared that shares have a Par Value of 1¢ or 2¢ or possibly even $1 (I'm not going to look it up but I am 100% certain it was not zero. That could and likely does bear on any new shares created by a share dividend. Either Tesla would have to revise its Articles - yecch - or create a new class of shares - doubleyecch.
And so.....the Path of Least Resistance most likely is to cowboy up and pay those taxes. Probably a Grand Total of $49.23 and 31/47¢.

Back to you -

Yes the company arbitrarily decides the par value in the process and that number has little to do with market or book value. States taxes are on this share price and why most corporations pick a really low value. They can’t use 0. Lets say they pick $1.25 per share. The company doesn’t get away with anything though. When they finally do go public at say $5 they owe taxes on the difference in this case the $3.75. That’s paid in capital. After all this par value is meaningless to most folks. I’m quite sure Tesla will not be able to use a couple of cents for any lot of new shares. The only reason they get away with it in initial incorporation is because there is no history to base anything on. This is the penny stock world! There’s a reason they claimed 1 or 2 cents. Tesla at that time just wasn’t even worth a dime.

Anyway my point was to clarify the difference between authorized shares and their relation to splits. I forgot to mention if Tesla ever does buy back shares those shares they will be referred to as treasury stock. Tesla would be voting on adding additional shares the would be entitled to any future cash dividends when sold. Even if they aren’t sold right away the potential for future sale is there. Shareholders tend to take issue with having to share distributed profits with more people. The split itself doesn’t do this.

I‘m more concerned with the post split price.

Elon if your reading this do a 20:1 split! If it occurred at $1000 the after split price would be $50. The subsequent run back up will be quick and should kill those short selling POS’s once and for all. Sure they have to replace shares not $ and those shares would be 20x cheaper but I’m basing this on their greed and bad intentions. Many of them will look at previous highs and be tempted to hold on.

And we’d all get some much deserved price appreciation.

 

[Cal1]

Truly, great minds think alike

Oh wow this would be great!

Hey what do you call YouTubers like SMR and Rob M.? I’d like to see someone post a poll on the best places to get accurate info. There’s tons of people out there and right now I have to comb thru multiple postings to figure out what is true and what is bs.

For instance there is the Electric Viking, Teslanews, Bestintesla, Solving the money problem, Tesla daily, Torque news Tesla, E for electric, Transport evolved, Tesla Insight, Hyperchange, Sandy Munro, Dave Lee on investing, etc. Right now I only believe it if all these guys say the same thing. Really makes it time consuming to figure things out.

Some are good at just presenting the facts, some are really quoting rumors, some are just tesla fan boys with never bad news. I get tired of buys just saying over and over how great Tesla is and never validating bad news. I love Sand M and heard him praise Tesla and tear them apart when they do something wrong (engineering wise). He’s also not someone that I’d use to understand why my share price is stagnating if everything is so good.

I’d like to know who my TMC community trusts. The poll would probably require more than simple who do you like questions

Thoughts?

 

[JusRelax]

When you're a boxer, do you want to hit the opponent once really hard, or a few times with less force? That's really the difference you're referring to. (Note: I'm not a boxer and I don't know the correct answer to that question.) I bolded one sentence above, and I disagree with that.

Tesla currently has a bit over a billion shares authorized, let's round that off to an even 1 billion. Pretend that the stock price is $1000 at the time of the split, for easy arithmetic.

According to Ihor Dusaniwsky, 24.55 million shares shorted, let's round that off to 25 million.

Scenario 1: 2:1 split. Tesla issues another 1B shares for a total of 2B. But 25M people have shares that they think they own, but are really borrowed by the shorts. Stock price halves, to $500/share, shorts have to spend 25M * $500 to make those guys whole; that's $12.5B.

Scenario 2: 20:1 split. Tesla issues another 19B shares, total 20B. Price per share goes down to $50. But now the shorts have to come up with 25M * 19 shares each * $50, which is $23.75 billion.

So it hurts the shorts almost twice as much. Asymptotically, TSLA could split 500:1 (any more and NASDAQ might delist them if the stock falls below $2 for an extended period) and it would hurt the shorts almost $25B.

No, they aren't hurt at all.

When shorting stock you have to put cash in "escrow" equal to the current value of the shares. (Which is adjusted every day.) So in scenario 1 they have $25B in escrow before the split, and after the split they have $12.5B of that returned to them, only to have to return it to secure the shares created as part of the split. The same for scenario 2. They get $23.75B of escrow back, just to use it again. Even the elusive naked shorts are in the same net zero situation, while they don't have any cash in an escrow account, the value of the shares they shorted doesn't change.

It is a net zero to the shorts, unless the stock price goes up as a result, in which they have to add money in to the escrow account.

I think the way to think of it is that, regardless of how large the split is, the institution that is short will not opt to not provide a share that they are short. As long as it's at least a 2:1 split (the ratio is probably even significantly lower than that), the institution that is short will opt to buy back every single share that they are short in order to be able to fully participate in the stock split/dividend. So regardless if it's a 2:1 split or a 20:1 split, I believe all shorted shares will be bought back to ensure not being left out of the stock split/dividend.