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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Today's word is capping
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www.investopedia.com
Because if they don't they'll be adding an 'r'
Capping: What it Means, How it Works, Example
Capping is the practice of selling large amounts of a commodity or security close to the option's expiry date to prevent a rise in market price.
Because if they don't they'll be adding an 'r'
MountainRatMat
Member
Tesla Daily has earned my trust and is my 1st source. Also, condensed to 10 min per day of listening is a digestible amount.
Ok so how long have you been monitoring me!!! I know it’s wrong but I can’t help it! So much FUD. I mean what am I suppose to do? Just take it?All Day on TMC and All Night on You Tube is not the life for me. If not getting info on TMC, I would definitely follow many others mentioned to try to keep up to date. cheers!!
I SAY NO! I will continue to feed this habit and damn the consequences!
Ok that was probably a little over the top. I’ll stop now.
Ex-UAW official pleads guilty to embezzling $2.2M from union - Autoblog
DETROIT — A former official at a suburban Detroit branch of the United Auto Workers has pleaded guilty to charges that he embezzled more than $2 million in
www.autoblog.com
Timothy Edmunds, 54, pleaded guilty Friday to one count each of embezzling union funds and money laundering during a hearing in U.S. District Court in Detroit, federal prosecutors said. He is the 17th defendant convicted in an ongoing criminal investigation into corruption within the UAW, prosecutors said.
Yep, that’s the kind of org I want representing me. Where do I pay my dues?
Except they won't be splitting any stock! They'll be issuing additional shares to issue a stock dividend, which will have the effect of a split but is not a split. See below:
"The SEC filing said the electric car maker will ask at its annual shareholders meeting "for an increase in the number of authorized shares of common stock ... in order to enable a stock split of the Company's common stock in the form of a stock dividend."
Well....Mary Led of course:
gmauthority.com
TL: DR
GM Benchmarking Tesla Summon Feature On Model 3
Summon may be offered with GM Ultra Cruise.
gmauthority.com
TL: DR
thesmokingman
Active Member
GM needs to sell more than 26 cars a quarter before copying more Tesla perks. Or better yet learn wtf thermal runaway is. 
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Except yes they will be splitting stock.
They said so themselves.
See below:
Yes. That's totally accurate
They're doing a SPLIT of their stock in the FORM of a dividend.
But don't take my word for it- here's Tesla also telling you your claim they aren't doing a split and your disagree of my post is incorrect.
Tesla 8k said:
tl;dr- the reporting you were mad about is literally what Tesla themselves said about this
I've filtered down by Youtube to just
Rob Mauer (every day)
David Lee (weekly, on interesting topics)
once in a while some special subject from the expert .. e.g. Limiting Factor for battery , HyperChange on Financials etc.
Once I started seeing too many cross-interviews, that did it for me
All Day on TMC and All Night on You Tube is not the life for me
What if I start a Youtube channel that just scrolls through this thread to make daily videos?
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Even on this forum they remain very low. I struggle to generate a reasonable bear scenario where 2022 EPS is less than $20.
And that's even assuming they finally start paying 21% income tax.
Elon just guided for 70-80% growth. That's 1.7-1.8 million vehicles delivered. Let's derive that:
Shanghai was going at 0.8M annualized rate in Dec. For a while now, each month they've added ~5k vehicles to production over the previous month. Let's discount the new expansion construction for 2022 and just call Shanghai 0.8+(0.005)*(12)*(0.5)*(12)= 1.16M for 2022. Note: this conservatively assumes Shanghai's growth rate is linear.
Fremont was at 0.45M annualized in Dec. Simply adding S&X mass production back into the mix could make this 0.5M or 0.55M, but we also will see more 3&Y with relentless efficiency gains and chip shortages calming down. Therefore, Fremont conservatively will be 0.6M total. Note that page 9 of Tesla Q4 report says Fremont installed capacity is 0.6M and "We believe there is potential to extend overall capacity beyond 600,000 per year. We aim to maximize output from our Fremont factory while ramping new factories." They also said on the conference call that growth from S&F alone would "comfortably exceed 50%" this year.
So for S&F alone 1.16M + 0.6M = 1.76M, right in line with Elon's 70-80% comment.
But then, Elon sandbags this stuff now... and voilá, there's Austin & Berlin! If they ramp similarly to Shanghai's first three quarters of production, they'll make a combined 0.15M vehs in 2022. However, this is bearish because:
1) Austin and Berlin are bigger facilities
2) The MY is easier to build than the M3, which Shanghai began with
3) Tesla's manufacturing prowess has drastically improved since Shanghai opened in late 2019, with much of the improvement being effortlessly scalable software investments in robot numerical control programming, computer vision, logistics management, etc. From Day One, Austin and Berlin are getting the latest and greatest Tesla Factory OS.
4) Berlin, due to the permitting delays, has had idle time for calibrating machines, training the new hires and developing good relationships amongst them
5) Austin and Berlin are better designed than Shanghai
Still, supply chain woes or issues with some of the experimental new production technology (like Berlin's fancy paint shop) may limit it severely, so 0.15M is good for a bear case.
1.76M + 0.15M = 1.91M vehicles as a baseline estimate for 2022.
Prices are still creeping up, and all signs point toward that trend continuing. FSD prioritization will blow the top off for gross profit, especially if they wide release city streets and recognize all the revenue including the $1B+ deferred revenue from past sales. European Model Y prices are like $70k avg now. Demand inexorably keeps rising.
Costs are still falling faster than inflation can eat the savings. Rob Maurer showed this a few weeks ago: vehicle average cost declined throughout 2021 even despite inflation and despite selling more S&X and more premium configurations of 3&Y. Biggest factor is that Shanghai is around 30% cheaper than Fremont and Shanghai is delivering the bulk of the growth in 2022.
The gross margin coming out of this will be at least $20k by end of year, which is when the majority of 2022 sales will occur. For reference, GM per veh was $15k in Q4. Across 2022, I think we're looking at average gross profit of $19k / veh minimum.
Maybe pessimistically, economies of scale aren't as good as hoped and OpEx jumps ~40% to $9B due to the expanded global footprint and growing research & development ambitions.
Then, bear case net earnings per share before tax, rounded to two digits would be:
[ 1.91M * $19 k - $9B ] / [ 1.13B shares + 0.01B new shares for employee comp ] = $24
If net tax is 21% and if they harvest most of their $1.6B tax credit from prior year's losses, that's over $20 per share net income.
This was just auto business.
The Lathrop Megapack factory is opening just as Europe is suddenly scrambling to delete natural gas from their electricity supply ASAP. In people's minds this matter is no longer just about sustainable energy or greenhouse gases. Now it's an urgent war risk from Putin and the Kremlin right in NATO's backyard, and buying many GWhs of Megapacks from Tesla sounds better than directly funding aggression and war crimes. Europeans will no longer tolerate their energy supply being in the hands of this dictatorship.
Also, Solar Roof is maturing and may hit significant sales this year at positive margins. Hard to predict but likely not zero or negative.
Energy could add another couple $$ to 2022 EPS.
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MountainRatMat
Member
Happy birthday, welcome to 65That pretty much describes our strategy. When I hit 65 I’ll take a peak at the share price. See if it’s time to buy a cybertruck.
Krugerrand
Meow
Bankers, WS types, SEC, UAW, NHTSA, bureaucrats, NADA, journalists, GoJo et al…
Who seconds the motion?
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
RIVN and LCID must have announced splits today.
Two easy places for reliable data on pre and post markets are Nasdaq, and Yahoo Finance, among others. Those and others also show volumes, ratios, histories and other data. Those and others like them help simplify understanding. Of course there are many other sources and specific ones that include futures, options and short sale data. All of those are mentioned here is various threads, including helpful hints about almost every permutation.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
These are the times when this board really misses the keen insights and legal strategy of @Fact_Checking
I just don't think the switch to a twitter account allows for the depth of content and discussion that we have here at TMC.
Hmm. Where have I seen that before?
JusRelax
Active Member
Don't forget NKLA, F, and RIDE. Was it @StarFoxisDown! who mentioned that TSLA seems to significantly underperform the day after significantly outperforming it's industry peers and it's own beta?
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