Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Pardon, the above video is not from @avoigt its BestInTESLA by Lars Strandridder.

Apologies for any confusion.

Cheers!

A Teslap?

 

[Xepa777]

New interview with JB. Man, there's no other company besides Tesla I want to invest heavily in than Redwood Materials. They are a couple. Yin and Yang. Circle of Life.

ABML is superior to Redwood Materials. And it's also ran by an ex-Tesla employee.

Redwood largely uses smelting to recycle materials, which is extremely toxic to the environment and inefficient as it permanently destroys some of the raw materials.

ABML uses hydrometallurgical process (water), which is much more enviornmentally friendly and retains all the original materials. And faster.

Here' a write-up from a Gartner employee on his personal blog. Lots of Tesla shareholders are in ABML. Why a failed mining company with a renewed focus will position America as a global leader in…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

FYI - Tesla Shanghai suppliers are also shutting down temporarily. Might be some stunted on/off production going into beginning of Q2 In Shanghai.

Tesla, GM supplier Aptiv suspends operations in Shanghai amid city’s anti-Covid efforts

Reports have emerged that auto parts maker Aptiv, which supplies carmakers like Tesla and General Motors’ joint venture in China, has suspended its operations at its Shanghai production facility. The shutdown was reportedly due to issues related to the current outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in...

www.teslarati.com

Saw this in a different article where they had a quote direct from Aptiv saying supply to their customers was not going to be impacted.

So until they say otherwise, it’s really a non story. I’m not surprised though that I’ve seen it show up in multiple negative biased Tesla articles

 

[mrdoubleb]

ABML is superior to Redwood Materials. And it's also ran by an ex-Tesla employee.

Redwood largely uses smelting to recycle materials, which is extremely toxic to the environment and inefficient as it permanently destroys some of the raw materials.

ABML uses hydrometallurgical process (water), which is much more enviornmentally friendly and retains all the original materials. And faster.

Here' a write-up from a Gartner employee on his personal blog. Lots of Tesla shareholders are in ABML. Why a failed mining company with a renewed focus will position America as a global leader in…

Have you actually listended to the JB interview? He says they use hydrometallurgical processes as well.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It seems very low to me too.

@StarFoxisDown! had good analysis two weeks ago predicting 335k-345k deliveries.

It will be very embarrassing for Wall Street analysts when the earnings report drops and their ludicrous $11 earnings per share estimates for 2022 are already surpassed in Q1 (on an annualized basis), even with Q1 being the weakest seasonal quarter and no contribution from the new factories yet.

Just remember, those numbers were based on the two different data sources for US Jan/Feb sales. We don’t know if those numbers are off. Troys making statements that Fremont production/sales are the same as Q4. I think he’s wrong. We’ll find out in 4 days.

The China sales are relatively easy to predict since we have official Jan/Feb numbers. Given two down days in mid March and another 1-2 down days of production at end of March, I’m bringing my estimate for China March sales down from 80k to 70k. If they had done 80k for March from China, it would have been over 347k in total for Q1. So now I’m now I’m in the ballpark of 330-340k. Troy again makes statements that Shanghai production has been limited since March 16th. I’ve seen zero evidence of that.

The earnings though is where Wall St is so off it’s embarrassing and it’s because they know they can game 2022 earnings for longer than they can 2022 P/D

 

[kanweg]

My dad came to visit us from the Netherlands two weeks ago. Since he has been here TSLA went up more than 42%. Asked him to stay a little longer..

I’m not a stockologist yet I’m sorry to break it to you but apparently that is not how it works. The stock price went up here too.

 

[jbcarioca]

The theory is that the market makers, who sell the majority of option contracts, use an exemption (the "Madoff exemption") to naked short, i.e. sell shares without locating them first (usually, in order to sell short, you have to get a locator ID for long shares that you'll borrow).

The short sellers then cover at a later time that is more opportune (e.g., in case of a macro movement downwards). This hypothesis is also used to explain sideways/downwards trading on Friday, with a pop on the subsequent Monday (when the MM's cover their naked short from Friday).

I'm not competent to judge whether this theory holds any merit or not. I can just say I've been observing strange stock price movements for the last 4+ years.

The stock price can also be capped by "spoofing", i.e., by entering large sell orders at certain prices without the intention of selling (a normal investor wanting to divest while maximizing their exit price would not post their asks this way as it artificially depresses the price -- they would rather use an algorithm to distribute their sales in time, price and quantity). There are even order types (e.g., "cancel if touched" [1]) that facilitate this procedure at limited to no risk to the "seller".

[1] yes this order type really exists, and it invites traders to manipulate the order book

It is definitely an oddity, but not quite that nefarious. There are several variations on limit orders that impose conditions on execution. Technically they are these:

TT If-Touched order

Trade futures, cryptocurrencies, options and more from anywhere—with unmatched power and speed.

library.tradingtechnologies.com

As you see, ‘cancel-if-touched’ is not exactly one of those. Under no circumstances would I suggest that these are Not designed to facilitate manipulation. They are.

By far the most egregious is naked shorting, rollover of fail-to-deliver and a few other quirky rules. Even then there are violations, generally ignored because, after all, enforcement is within the ‘club’.

 

[Usain]

Is it just me or does this seem very low? Tesla has been growing production every quarter since Q2 2020 and I expect the same this quarter. Q1 is typically a slow quarter for car sales but demand seems to be at an all time high so I don't expect the slow Q1 to affect Tesla. I do feel sorry for the big SUV manufacturers, with gas prices where they are I don't expect large ICE SUV sales to be doing well.

A big miss by analysts (no surprise there, they've been missing for 10 years) would be another catalyst for an already hot $TSLA

Demand doesn't matter right now. Tesla Q1 sales is mostly dependent on how many chips they can acquire. So the actual number is very hard to guess.

 

[lascavarian]

Gene Munster just gave a nice tip of the hat to Rob Mauer on CNBC minutes ago. Rob‘s video comparison advice specifically.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Anyone catch CNBCs hatchet job on TSLA this morning? Lots of the usual FUD, plus cackling old Fauxahontas attacking Elon. "You didn't build that" crap. Along with labeling TSLA a "meme stock". "Tesla is one of the least efficient manufacturers of cars"

 

[Buckminster]

Some relevant old threads:

Shorts repaying 4 shares on split dividend day???
Stock split tax implications for non-US shareholders
TSLA Stock Split

 

[ggies07]

ABML is superior to Redwood Materials. And it's also ran by an ex-Tesla employee.

Redwood largely uses smelting to recycle materials, which is extremely toxic to the environment and inefficient as it permanently destroys some of the raw materials.

ABML uses hydrometallurgical process (water), which is much more enviornmentally friendly and retains all the original materials. And faster.

Here' a write-up from a Gartner employee on his personal blog. Lots of Tesla shareholders are in ABML. Why a failed mining company with a renewed focus will position America as a global leader in…

yeah, I got into ABML and then lost money. I'm still holding onto it as I understand it's a long term play, and I hope they succeed, but they don't even have a factory right now, Redwood does. Redwood is actually producing material.

 

[UncaNed]

I’m not a stockologist yet I’m sorry to break it to you but apparently that is not how it works. The stock price went up here too.

So doesn't that mean that YOU should be asking his dad to stay with him longer too??? I mean, it it helps float all our boats...

Or does it mean WE should go pay him a visit...

Or perhaps we should send OUR dads to stay with him for a week or so... Couldn't hurt, could it? Worth a try.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is why you cap at $1100 for a day and a half. With any luck you can ride a day or two of down macros and keep things under 1100 for Friday expiration.

Good morning to target cheap 4/8 YOLOs!

 

[2daMoon]

Business is slow this morning, so management has authorized a Blue Light Special on aisle "T"

Shoppers should hurry as this won't last long.

HODL

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Max pain is listed as $1030 for Friday, so if the market is dead at the open maybe we get a nice big MMD.

Decent premarket volume, but little SP movement. Perhaps MM's continuing to cap?

 

[JRP3]

Have you actually listended to the JB interview? He says they use hydrometallurgical processes as well.

He's been spreading FUD about Redwood for a while What other tech stock to consider?

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla Dodges Nickel Crisis With Secret Deal to Get Supplies​

The invasion of Ukraine has added to agita among electric-vehicle makers over the supply of nickel, a critical ingredient in EV batteries, since Russia is one of the world’s biggest producers.

But Tesla Inc. had already been scouring the globe for the metal, signing pacts with several nickel suppliers since 2021.

That includes a multiyear supply deal with mining giant Vale SA. The agreement, which hasn’t been announced, covers nickel from Canada, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named discussing private details.

Tesla’s deal with Vale is one of several that the carmaker has forged over the last year. In January, the Austin, Texas-based EV manufacturer committed to purchase 75,000 metric tons of nickel concentrate from a Talon Metals Corp. project being developed in Minnesota. That followed agreements with BHP Group, the world’s biggest mining company, for material from Australia. Tesla also has a pact with operators of a nickel mine in the South Pacific island of New Caledonia.

“People don’t realize how far ahead Tesla is when it comes to securing the supply chain for raw materials and an integrated approach to battery materials,” said Todd Malan, a spokesman for Talon Metals.

Tesla Dodges Nickel Crisis With Secret Deal to Get Supplies

The invasion of Ukraine has added to agita among electric-vehicle makers over the supply of nickel, a critical ingredient in EV batteries, since Russia is one of the world’s biggest producers.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

He's been spreading FUD about Redwood for a while What other tech stock to consider?

Maybe he put a little too much of his net worth into ABML. I'm down 52% on the $1500 I threw at it. I'm now a diworsification expert. Some people have to learn the hard way. Go TSLA!

 

[Baumisch]

Tesla Dodges Nickel Crisis With Secret Deal to Get Supplies​

Tesla Dodges Nickel Crisis With Secret Deal to Get Supplies

The invasion of Ukraine has added to agita among electric-vehicle makers over the supply of nickel, a critical ingredient in EV batteries, since Russia is one of the world’s biggest producers.

www.bloomberg.com

I would love to hear a sidenote at the Shareholder Meeting or some other event where Elon explains how they overpaid a bit for fixed-price multi-year agreements in 2021 to accomodate a possible shortage on material during EV S-curve adoption - just to find out they got an unbelievable stable price during war time on all key materials while other players are struggling with spot prices and high volatility on pricing.