Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

To be fair to GM they also had many more sales of other EV models beside the Hummer. In total GM had total sales of 457 EVs in Q1 2022.

457,000? they really are leading! (that was sarcasm not AF)

Honestly kind of stunned at how truly terrible GM is at this. 457 cars in a quarter isn't production, it's not even ramping up production. How is this even a thing? Even Rivian is making about 1000/ month.

 

[pitabun]

Interesting, I have a Safety Score beta in my Tesla app, “Safety Score is now available for CA Tesla insurance customers for educational purposes”

 

[Ogre]

Interesting, I have a Safety Score beta in my Tesla app, “Safety Score is now available for CA Tesla insurance customers for educational purposes”

Does it have a calculator included to tell you how much lower your rates would be if Tesla could legally offer their telemetry based insurance?

 

[Discoducky]

457,000? they really are leading! (that was sarcasm not AF)

Honestly kind of stunned at how truly terrible GM is at this. 457 cars in a quarter isn't production, it's not even ramping up production. How is this even a thing? Even Rivian is making about 1000/ month.

Agree, Bolt starts again April 4th. Let's see how many they make. Maybe 2k in q2? I'm not even sure how to guess at that as it seems all new production is on the new Ultium platform.

 

[Ogre]

Agree, Bolt starts again April 4th. Let's see how many they make. Maybe 2k in q2? I'm not even sure how to guess at that as it seems all new production is on the new Ultium platform.

The LYRIQ is also starting up which may also bump numbers.

It's a little dumbfounding how they can make any kind of profit producing vehicles in these volumes. GIGA Berlin produced more cars in the first week of operation. I know the Hummer sells for a lot more than the Model Y... but not so much where they can absorb the sort of boutique manufacturing they are doing.

 

[Ogre]

Was thinking about Shanghai. I know it sucks that they are down. But if Tesla is still supply chain constrained, can Tesla make up for the downtime in Shanghai by increasing production elsewhere?

Seems like the loss of Shanghai might well mean more production in Berlin or Fremont? Or just increased production in Shanghai in the weeks following the downtime.

 

[JustSaying]

Don’t get me wrong lol….I too struggle with buying things other than TSLA stock. I’m 31, have no debt, work 2 FT jobs and work OT, I live with 3 other people so I only pay 200$ on rent per month and shop as frugally as I can manage. When I say treat myself, I mean purchasing a book that I love from Amazon rather than going to the library for free (COVID…not going to another library ).
Im learning a balance too. Little by little.

Hang in there (BTW try the APP "Libby" borrow library books without going to the Library , download to Kindle, ipad, phone or google. Free with a Library Card)

 

[dhanson865]

If you're looking for a mutual fund holding TSLA... BPTRX is ~50% TSLA and ~5% SpaceX.

I was looking at this as a convenient way to buy fractional shares on a broker that doesn't do fractional shares for TSLA itself but it says the initial investment needs to be $2000 so it doesn't help me invest the change on my various accounts.

I could sell a share or two of TSLA to go with the change on each account to move into BPTRX or I could wait on the accounts that are still going to see new money to do it later but that would mean not investing in TSLA for a while.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think consensus around here is 283k

Thanks, good to know. I haven't been keeping up with this thread lately. 283k seems pessimistic to me. But there has been a fair amount of downtime at Shanghai this quarter. We'll know soon enough.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This article by Akre Capital has been posted several times in this thread. I'll post it again for the newcomers and as a refresher for all of us.
This article points out the wisdom about "Time in the Market" as opposed to "Timing the Market"
This is one of my favorite pieces on investing:
The Art of (Not) Selling

The first 2 sentences of the article:
"Of our most costly mistakes over the years, almost all have been sell decisions. The mistake, in virtually every instance, has been selling too soon."

2 other statements that stand out in this excellent article:

It is important to keep in mind that the financial press and Wall Street live on eyeballs and transactions. They are, by definition, trying to maximize the noise—to convince you to sell what you own and buy what you do not.

In his book “100 to 1 in the Stock Market,” Thomas Phelps advised:

“Never forget that people whose self-interest is diametrically opposed to your own are trying to persuade you to act every day.”

 

[Krugerrand]

Was thinking about Shanghai. I know it sucks that they are down. But if Tesla is still supply chain constrained, can Tesla make up for the downtime in Shanghai by increasing production elsewhere?

Seems like the loss of Shanghai might well mean more production in Berlin or Fremont? Or just increased production in Shanghai in the weeks following the downtime.

No worries on this mountain. I’d wager GigaChina can and will catch up without issue.

 

[wipster]

I feel your pain. Does your wife respect logic? If so, maybe try this:

1) There are only two kinds of Tesla investors: well-informed and less-than-well-informed. Which do you want to be?

2) If you want to be well-informed, you will need to spend many hours studying the company. Random TV commercials and highly unscientific samples of consumer sentiment are insufficient.

3) If you don't want to spend that much time, you will need to trust the judgement of someone else. Who will you trust? Talking heads in media dependent on car advertising? Financial advisors opining on hundreds of stocks? A man who follows an international group of Tesla experts from many disciplines who cull and share info every day?

How about the richest man on Earth, who currently has invested in Tesla over 100 billion dollars?

Trusting a man's judgement is not the same as sucking his appendage... unfortunately for us men.

The things that are going to kill non-Tesla EV's (at least in the short term) include:
- Production (per Elon, making prototypes is far easier than production)
- Dealerships, who don't want to sell EV's to begin with
- Recalls, there will be many and unlike Tesla all will have to be performed by the dealer
- Repairs, as there will need to be serious training of the dealer's mechanics in order to diagnose and fix any issues that may arise
- Maintenance, rest assured there will be much more maintenance required for EV's made by OEM's and post warranty it will be expensive.

These are just a few of the areas where Tesla, having been designed on a clean sheet of paper, has a huge advantage over their OEM competition. I personally think a lot of folks who buy these vehicles will eventually switch to Tesla because it's going to be too expensive and too much of a pain to own them.

Just in case you needed more ammo when discussing investments with your significant other...

 

[Singuy]

Now in high def

 

[Thekiwi]

The last couple of weeks of disruptions in Shanghai really seems to have put a damper on P&D expectations. Troy & WS are aligned at 309k expected (Troy aims for 3% +/- which equates to a 300-320Ish range).

I don’t have any insight into how Tesla operates in regards to China deliveries, but if they followed the old tesla standard operating procedure (which might either have been phased out or non-existent in China), then they would have arranged for Shanghai deliveries to be scheduled for the final couple of weeks of the quarter so cars produced in Shanghai in the last week would have been able to get into customers living locally before end of quarter. in the same way as California deliveries were scheduled for late in the quarter due to being closer to Fremont. If that was in fact still the scheduled plan for China this quarter, then I think it’s not unfair to estimate something like a 7.5k-10k shortfall compared to earlier Q1 delivery assumptions (Given that Shanghai production is around 12k per week).

309k delivery estimates may still be too low, but the lower expectations are the better.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My wife concern is how high % TSLA makes up in our portfolio. TSLA is about 40% of our stock investments.

40%? Why so bearish?

Dan

 

[floydboy]

OT, wish this was an April Fools joke... My 2021 Model Y was t-boned, I'm fine, walked away. Hopefully it's totalled and we can get some 4680 batteries (think positive). What's the lead-time on a new Y these days?

It was just me driving the car, completely fine (left arm abrasion is all), the airbags deployed, and the truck that hit me was a 4-door full-sized GMC pickup truck. That driver was also safe. Maybe 30 mph at impact (speed limit was 45, hard to judge when it's coming at you, looked more like 2 mph). Ironically, his airbag didn't deploy as he hit square into my driver's side hitting both doors but mostly the rear door (it needs a new left half.) Glass in my pants was a neat trick, I can't explain that part. Was my first accident ever. Super glad it was a Tesla.

Seems I missed a good story through. My tow driver told me there was a traffic jam up the street from a stuck Waymo in the same mess, and no driver. It was worth the laugh at a bad time. I didn't know they were doing that again, so I can't confirm but not surprised either.

OK, back to life at hand. If anyone has some insights on this situation like getting the video, repairs, totals, time-frame now, let's do it offline, thx.

Glad you're Ok!

 

[bballshinobi]

My wife concern is how high % TSLA makes up in our portfolio. TSLA is about 40% of our stock investments.

Maybe her concern is the weight is not high enough? lol

 

[SmokyPeat]

The last couple of weeks of disruptions in Shanghai really seems to have put a damper on P&D expectations. Troy & WS are aligned at 309k expected (Troy aims for 3% +/- which equates to a 300-320Ish range).

I don’t have any insight into how Tesla operates in regards to China deliveries, but if they followed the old tesla standard operating procedure (which might either have been phased out or non-existent in China), then they would have arranged for Shanghai deliveries to be scheduled for the final couple of weeks of the quarter so cars produced in Shanghai in the last week would have been able to get into customers living locally before end of quarter. in the same way as California deliveries were scheduled for late in the quarter due to being closer to Fremont. If that was in fact still the scheduled plan for China this quarter, then I think it’s not unfair to estimate something like a 7.5k-10k shortfall compared to earlier Q1 delivery assumptions (Given that Shanghai production is around 12k per week).

309k delivery estimates may still be too low, but the lower expectations are the better.

Good points. I'm going to stick with my 330k estimate- the street certainly isn't setting expectations by what I think, lol. I've been hearing that Fremont really cranked them out this quarter. Sounds as though they basically delivered the entire inventory as well.

 

[Big Time]

glad you are ok @SOULPEDL , Im sure the massage will work wonders

 

[MountainRatMat]

I don't understand the ending. What did she mean by SEC?

Uhhh, who's going to volunteer to take this one?

1) I can't say, I'd get banned from the forum
2) Go back and look at Elon's tweets with regards to the SEC