Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Nice
4.6k inventory drawdown
QoQ increase in deliveries
Only 433 less produced QoQ with a bunch less days (can see impact in 3/Y numbers)
1,109 more S/X produced QoQ 8% increase
Almost 3k more S/X delivered QoQ
Great resilience, higher S/X mix, confidence is high

 

[Big Time]

Tesla delivers 310,048 electric vehicles in the first quarter

Tesla released production numbers for the first quarter after a record-setting close to 2021.

www.cnbc.com

Laura’s on the front page

 

[H Mak]

CNBC (guess who) is falsely claiming that Tesla missed analyst consensus estimate of 317k. Actually beat the 309k estimate.

The deer?

 

[S3XY]

My wife makes similar comments about my case for TSLA and is quick to point out headlines like "Tesla Killer" or that there's so many electric cars coming. When and in what volume is the key in my opinion.

My father sold his SR+ two months ago for a profit, but then decided they needed another car. He looked at Lexus, then saw gas prices and moved back to electric. His options - Model 3 (reserved before the last price increase but delivery time is May/June), Polestar (fully spec'd out, no FWD or cars without higher end packages available), Hyundai IONIQ (local dealer said he'd get in Q2 2023 if he's lucky), Ford Mach-E (not available for months and dealers want a premium).

If general vehicle demand still exceeds supply due to supply chain issues, then low-margin electric cars will not be legacy auto's focus. The legacy auto industry is not in a great position when competing with Tesla at present due to its slow-moving, cost intensive structure. Those advertisements my wife refers to about "upcoming EVs with great specs" hold about as much weight with me as our 3-ply Ultra-Soft Charmin.

My wife was hesitant at first as I had to reason how good an investment TSLA was so I could clean out the couch. And again with the many good buying opportunities along the way. Now she can look back and see I was right. Her only gripe of late is that I HODL my shares with a diamond hand grip. "You know, now that you're retiring we're going to need some cash to live on."

 

[Blue horseshoe]

2022	q1
production	305k
Revenue (est)	$17.5B
Trailing 4 quarters
trailing production	1.05M
trailing revenue (est)	$60.5B
Price/Sales ratio	Share Price
15	$878
20	$1,171
25	$1,464

Q1 production came in well below my estimate of 347k. Simple assumption was 14% growth, but we came in flat with the same production as in q4. With Austin and Berlin beginning their ramps the production numbers should quickly catch up to my quarterly estimates this year.

Using a price to sales ratio against trailing twelve month revenue we are in line to be valued close to 20X sales with a share price around $1,170.

Forecasting out, if production resumes at a slow and steady 14% growth for q2 through q4 we would end the year at 1.5M vehicles produced, and estimated $86B in revenue, and using a price to sales ratio of 20 we could end the year with a share price near $1,667.

I believe production growth will increase through the end of the year and still think we have a fair shot at production of 1.7M vehicles this year. My price target for end of 2022 remains at $2,000

 

[S3XY]

You might check into whether giving your kid a small amount of Tesla now is better than paying a larger amount in gift taxes later.

Gifting it now means they will only need to pay capital gains on it eventually.

Gift and put into a Roth IRA if in US or comparable elsewhere.

 

[betstarship]

Some (updated) charts:

Note: y-o-y Plaid S/X line went from 0 (Q1 2021) -> 14,724 (Q1 2022) deliveries

 

[bkp_duke]

Gift and put into a Roth IRA if in US or comparable elsewhere.

Bingo. We've focused our giving for our kids on 529 plans for college (TSLA not possible there), and "Roth for Minors" plans. Technically they can touch the Roth after 18, but with typical penalties. Focusing our efforts on educating them in proper finance mentality.

 

[geometro]

WSJ also citing a “miss” but didn’t say what it was…? Nonsense.

Tesla Deliveries Rose in Quarter Elon Musk Calls Exceptionally Difficult

The electric-car maker delivered 310,000 vehicles globally in the first three months of the year, below Wall Street expectations.

www.wsj.com

 

[Skipdd]

No. I was $15K for '21. Went to $16K for '22.

Lol - I will have to investigate why we were told otherwise. Thx

 

[ThisStockGood]

Seems oldschool media outlets will keep providing the world with FUD - well, what do we care.

Cheers and enjoy the weekend

 

[UCF3]

That’s 3 straight quarters of drawing down inventory. I’m sure Rob will discuss days in inventory on his podcast on Monday.

 

[Discoducky]

Here's how I'm looking at it right now and the future is super bright.

 

[FireMedic]

Elon ‘liked’ this twitter post, so did I. Hitting the steep part of that S curve, hard to miss on the 12 trying months chart.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510288089763221507

 

[betstarship]

Note:

- "P&D Price" is the e-o-d share price the 1st day of trading after a P&D report.
- "Earnings Price" is the e-o-d share price the 1st day of trading after a AH Earnings report

 

[Curt Renz]

WS analysts were ~ 309k… pretty close this time. I think it’s a good print given the environment.

It appears that my Model 3 delivered March 2 helped in meeting the street's expectations.

Its the dual-motor long-range version with paid upfront FSD capability. It's a marvelous dream car. FSD (with hands on wheel) is amazing, although it wanted more pressure on the wheel than I was giving. I was wondering about a chime, until I realized that it was for a green light when I'm at the head of the queue.

 

[Nocturnal]

It appears that my Model 3 delivered March 2 helped in meeting the street's expectations.

Its the dual-motor long-range version with paid upfront FSD capability. It's a marvelous dream car. FSD (with hands on wheel) is amazing, although it wanted more pressure on the wheel than I was giving. I was wondering about a chime, until I realized that it was for a green light when I'm at the head of the queue.

I got a Y delivered a few weeks ago for my GF to use. Now I'm jealous though because I can see and feel all the improvements over my 18 P3.

Plaid delivery (even with FSD) is showing as June/July which surprised me. If I could transfer my Beta access I'd probably pull the trigger, even though I wanted to wait for the CT.

 

[Accident]

I got a Y delivered a few weeks ago for my GF to use. Now I'm jealous though because I can see and feel all the improvements over my 18 P3.

Plaid delivery (even with FSD) is showing as June/July which surprised me. If I could transfer my Beta access I'd probably pull the trigger, even though I wanted to wait for the CT.

Nice of you to buy a car for your Gigafactory. They deserve it after another record quarter.

 

[loquitur]

my kids are 10 and 14. They are both very nearly millionaires in their own right thanks to UTMA accounts i set up many years ago, seeded with Tesla (and other) stock. Neither of them are aware of these accounts yet. I'm legally obligated to hand the accounts over to them when they turn 18 of course, and I'm honestly fearful that doing so could end up doing more harm than good overall in their lives. Everyone wants to provide for their children, but is handing a teenager millions of dollars really good parenting? I suppose I'm going to find out.

Ah, about Tesla (and for me Apple, too) in kids' educational accounts like UTMAs, 529s, ESA/Coverdells (low contribution limit there) ...
... It's been awhile, but I recall thru the haze you could actively use them for expensive private school tuition in high school. That's what we did for our (fraternal) twins.

The tony San Francisco high schools had tuition far greater than the (public) universities they ended up going to. I remember the pressure from counselors to stick with the privates in Ivy League, but they chose the big Us like Cal Berkeley and UCLA, twins finally going off their separate ways, and all for the better.

As for the millions yours have, sure they could legally blow it on expensive cars like the Tesla roadsters happening by age 18,
but it could still go far toward grad school, law, and med degrees. So a little bit of psychology (reverse or otherwise) can work
wonders sometimes.

And be sure that before they know better, have them authorize one or both parental units to make the post-UTMA accounts joint accounts with you on the title of the account. That may serve to keep proper respect for the use of the funds.

 

[The Accountant]

Before Europe Gets to Bed
I hope to post my full financials in the Quarterly Financial thread later today but wanted to get this quick post out for those calling it a day.
When I update my model for the P&D report, my Non-GAAP EPS only decreases from $2.80 to $2,74.
In the table below you will see that changing my deliveries from 320k to 310k reduces EPS by $0.12 . . .
. . .but changing the lease rate on Models 3/Y from my projected 5% to the 3% as per the P&D report, improves my EPS by $0.06.
So the P&D report only had a net $0.06 impact ($2.80 to $2.74).

Then I make 3 additional changes based on feedback from members and new data that I have seen.
The 3 changes (Pricing, Berlin/Austin Ramp and Taxes) get my non-GAAP EPS above my original estimate.
I am now at $2.83 EPS non-GAAP. This is triple last year's (Q1 2021) EPS of $0.93