Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon and Zach coming with the earlier split than we expected, now looking to get earnings out a week early. I wonder if this 4/20 surprise will impact anyone's plans for shorting/covering?

Carebears already creeping out of the woodwork today, not even waiting for Monday!

This will be a FUN two weeks for sure! I've actually observed avg analyst estimates clicked back down from $2.25 to $2.24. Hope we don't see it magically adjust to $2.75 this week.

 

[Beltsbear]

So do we think that Elon will announce a new variant of the Model Y at CyberRodeo event? The rumored SR+ with 279 miles of range with 4680 cells. Would also be the perfect time to announce the LR and LR performance range has been improved if engineers can squeeze a little more out of the 2170s.

The 279 mile model is almost certainly an lfp battery and not built with 4680 Cells.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Back in November 2021, we saw a house we liked and made an offer. We haven't moved in 30 years.
The day after, Elon's share sale was announced and I watched our net worth fall away (we were >90% in TSLA at the time)
Between then and now, I arranged a securities-based loan to pay for the shortfall + my existing mortgage so I didn't have to sell any TSLA shares.

At tomorrow's close I'll know how much that loan will be.
I can't lie, it's been slightly stressful over the last 6 months watching the share price, as there have been times when I thought we wouldn't be able to make the move. Like when the share price was in the 700's. Whatever, I still believed.

If we get above $1100 tomorrow I'll be really happy but in any case, even if it dips we can fulfil our commitments now, so all's well.

Thanks to everyone here who has offered their advice and given their knowledge. It's very much appreciated and gave me the confidence to HODL tight in the face of adversity.

The punchline? I didn't realise it until just now, but our completion date is 4/20.

 

[JRP3]

Is it me or are those black model Y's parked so close together that you couldn't get out of one? In other words, were they placed with summon?
Could be the distance or viewing angle.

If they started with the one all the way on the right there would always be an open space on the driver side.

 

[AudubonB]

I believe you meant to write “20 April”.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It's truer now than ever. It's progressed to the point that I'm actually quite disappointed when I don't see any stories that are obvious FUD. The subtle and often unintentional anti-Tesla bias will continue, but I'm afraid the heyday of FUD that is so obvious and loud that it drives the share price higher (sometimes after a short negative reaction) is mostly a thing of the past.

Even more disappointing, we will need to source our entertainment elsewhere.

Speaking of which, whatever happened to that exploding Plaid in north Houston? You know the one that spewed battery cells all over the pavement and was towed to a secret, private garage?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I was wondering what's this from Jeff Roberts' daily video of yesterday:
View attachment 789621

Are they actually doing it for the Giga Cyber Rodeo?

That, my friends is the Lone Star. Either that or a Model Y orgy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Speaking of which, whatever happened to that exploding Plaid in north Houston? You know the one that spewed battery cells all over the pavement and was towed to a secret, private garage?

You mean that hedge-fund guy? He's now driving a pink Pinto in a demolition derby.

 

[UncaNed]

That's the problem with any system, like the American tax system. It can be set up with the intention of being as fair as possible to all, but there will always be people who try to subvert the intent of the system to benefit themselves with no real benefit to the overall economic system (other than to those who are subverting it).

To be clear, I have nothing against taking every tax break I'm eligible for but I do have a problem with a family business hiring family members, that wouldn't normally be hired, to game the tax system.

Others would argue it's just fair tax planning. Why wouldn't you want to give the kids an inside view of the family business?

...unless there's an IRS section against nepotism... which is a pretty good word, really. I like to say nepotism...

Edit- especially if you really drag out and emphasize the "e" in nepotism.

 

[Tyler34]

Back in November 2021, we saw a house we liked and made an offer. We haven't moved in 30 years.
The day after, Elon's share sale was announced and I watched our net worth fall away (we were >90% in TSLA at the time)
Between then and now, I arranged a securities-based loan to pay for the shortfall + my existing mortgage so I didn't have to sell any TSLA shares.

At tomorrow's close I'll know how much that loan will be.
I can't lie, it's been slightly stressful over the last 6 months watching the share price, as there have been times when I thought we wouldn't be able to make the move. Like when the share price was in the 700's. Whatever, I still believed.

If we get above $1100 tomorrow I'll be really happy but in any case, even if it dips we can fulfil our commitments now, so all's well.

Thanks to everyone here who has offered their advice and given their knowledge. It's very much appreciated and gave me the confidence to HODL tight in the face of adversity.

The punchline? I didn't realise it until just now, but our completion date is 4/20.

May I ask what bank offered you a loan like that? I've been looking for one myself. Thanks in advance.
Also been feeling that same stress for the same reasons. Good luck to us both.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Speaking of which, whatever happened to that exploding Plaid in north Houston? You know the one that spewed battery cells all over the pavement and was towed to a secret, private garage?

 

[Thekiwi]

The decision not to restart may be connected with this:

In 2022, the Qingming Festival falls on April 5. The public holiday in China is from April 3 to April 5, 2022.

Perhaps our members who are Chinese or familiar with Chinese holiday tradition can weigh in on this.
Would the Tesla factory have been closed for this Holiday or working with a reduced crew for this Holiday anyway?

The issue is that lockdowns don’t work with eliminating Omicron (whereas they were very effective against the initial 2020 variant and somewhat useful against Delta). So their daily case numbers are climbing higher despite their best efforts to lockdown.

not sure what is going to happen in Shanghai - either China gives up on Covid-zero policy, or they extend lockdown for many weeks to see if they can succeed in stamping out Omicron where others failed.

obviously from a tesla investor perspective we would prefer the former, as the later would be fairly detrimental for Q2 production numbers. in saying that, if china gIves up on Covid-zero, then Shanghai is going to have an ugly couple of months which will look a lot like Hong Kong did in Feb/Mar (morgues overflowing etc) and tesla will likely have some patchy staffing levels which may lead to a poor Q2 shanghai number as well until the Omicron wave has passed.

 

[heltok]

The issue is that lockdowns don’t work with eliminating Omicron (whereas they were very effective against the initial 2020 variant and somewhat useful against Delta). So their daily case numbers are climbing higher despite their best efforts to lockdown.

not sure what is going to happen in Shanghai - either China gives up on Covid-zero policy, or they extend lockdown for many weeks to see if they can succeed in stamping out Omicron where others failed.

obviously from a tesla investor perspective we would prefer the former, as the later would be fairly detrimental for Q2 production numbers.

Will be interesting to see what happens in China. Cases are increasing rapidly:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510791499658797058

Shanghai residents are getting fed up with restrictions:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510762187316686853

Meanwhile election is coming up an Xi has staked a lot on zerocovid.

At this point even if Shanghai manages to get R from say 2 to 0.25 with drastic measurements, it still would take many weeks of pain to get from todays level to near zero levels. Even with current strict restrictions it hard to say if R is meaningfully below 1.

And with their less effective vaccines, with their populations preference to traditional chinese medicine over western medicine, with their populations hesistance toward taking government vaccines, letting loose BA.2 into their population would likely mean a lot of sick people at the same time…

 

[Thekiwi]

Will be interesting to see what happens in China. Cases are increasing rapidly:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510791499658797058

Shanghai residents are getting fed up with restrictions:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510762187316686853

Meanwhile election is coming up an Xi has staked a lot on zerocovid.

At this point even if Shanghai manages to get R from say 2 to 0.25 with drastic measurements, it still would take many weeks of pain to get from todays level to near zero levels. Even with current strict restrictions it hard to say if R is meaningfully below 1.

And with their less effective vaccines, with their populations preference to traditional chinese medicine over western medicine, with their populations hesistance toward taking government vaccines, letting loose BA.2 into their population would likely mean a lot of sick people at the same time…

Yes - it’s going to be a tricky couple of months indeed for Tesla Shanghai. At least Tesla can now turn the narrative to Berlin & Austin if Q2 is going to end up being a bit of an unexpected drop in production numbers.

(also good we are closer to $1100 than $700)

 

[Singuy]

Yes - it’s going to be a tricky couple of months indeed for Tesla Shanghai. At least Tesla can now turn the narrative to Berlin & Austin if Q2 is going to end up being a bit of an unexpected drop in production numbers.

(also good we are closer to $1100 than $700)

Chinese scientists are all trying to convince xi to give it up..so we will see what happens

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Meanwhile election is coming up an Xi has staked a lot on zerocovid.

At this point even if Shanghai manages to get R from say 2 to 0.25 with drastic measurements, it still would take many weeks of pain to get from todays level to near zero levels. Even with current strict restrictions it hard to say if R is meaningfully below 1.

And with their less effective vaccines, with their populations preference to traditional chinese medicine over western medicine, with their populations hesistance toward taking government vaccines, letting loose BA.2 into their population would likely mean a lot of sick people at the same time…

China is not a democracy, and "elections" in China are nothing more than rubber stamps to continue the power of whoever it is that has power. God Emperor Xi isn't going anywhere, he can remain the God Emperor of China until his dying breath if he so desires. No Chinese leader in the Communist era has had as much personal power as Xi Jinping since literally Mao himself.

Covid Zero is not going to work anymore, period. Omicron is simply too infectious, it literally infected the entire non-China world in a matter of weeks after leaving South Africa and then burned itself out just as quickly, the R number for Omicron was basically impossible to measure at one point.

Let's also not beat around the bush, the Chinese vaccines simply do not work and China's insistent refusal to accept Western vaccines because they want to prove they can do something on their own even when the preponderance of evidence is to the opposite is going to be their undoing here. Omicron is roughly as dangerous as your average influenza so not that many people will die relatively speaking, it's just that China's population of 1.4 billion all getting Omicron at once is going to result in a massive death toll because of the sheer scale of China's population.

We should all be concerned about this not just because of Giga Shanghai, but also all the other Chinese factories which make pretty much everything electronic on Earth used by the rest of the world. If you are right now looking at something electronic, and you are because you are reading this post on a phone or a computer, there is a 100% chance that it contains at least one part made in China and there's at least a 95% chance the entire gadget was made in China. The West doesn't really understand how dependent they are on China for literally everything, even after 2 years of Covid supply chain disruptions. Well they are about to find out, and this is way beyond just our TSLA stock prices.

 

[2daMoon]

Thank goodness (Elon) that Tesla has diversified with factories on multiple continents, eh?

Granted, supply chain disruption would still be a problem, but not as bad as it might be for companies with their sole manufacturing presence in China.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Thank goodness (Elon) that Tesla has diversified with factories on multiple continents, eh?

Granted, supply chain disruption would still be a problem, but not as bad as it might be for companies with their sole manufacturing presence in China.

It's going to take a little while for it to sink in for me that Berlin, and soon Austin, will be cranking out Teslas in addition to Fremont and Shanghai. Amazing achievements and hard to believe how far they have come since I got a Model S in early 2013 (I traded it in for a Y not too long ago)

 

[redan]

Gary Black with a tweet about Alex Potter/Piper Sandler note reiterating overweight recommendation and $1,350 PT. A lot of good info here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510746383845838852

 

[Prunesquallor]

Supercharger Economics

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510691354623590410