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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yeah, that's how it SHOULD work, but do you want to bet? I see potential downsides in the US for Tesla owners. Only if this helps accelerate the expansion of the SC network and the SC experience is not degraded for Tesla owners would I see this as a desirable partnership.
Clearly you're gonna have to make charging universal if you want the billions in fed infrastructure dollars. My hope is that it's just the new locations/stalls that need to be available for all EVs, and the existing (pre-BBB) supercharger network remains unchanged.

That would be a nice compromise and would mean Tesla owners get to keep all the primo locations exclusive.
 
5) The probability of this happening is low, maybe 1%, but the impact is so large that as an investor I count it as a non-negligible long term liability.

I appreciate your clarification but it's important to realize that, so far, there has never been a punitive breakup of a monopoly. That means the government's goal is not to punish success or destroy value but to shake-up the competitive landscape going forward. In the case of break-ups, shareholders retain ownership of all the new parts of the broken-up business. New shares are issued for the newly spawned companies. This actually created additional shareholder value in the case of the breakup of "ma" Bell. Read the history.

My point is, even if something this unthinkable under current law happened far down the road, it's not necessarily a negative from a shareholder value perspective and unlikely to be a huge negative as you claim. I completely disagree that it's impact would be so large that it's a significant liability now. I would suggest you are thinking about it wrong from an investors point of view.

TSLA is massively undervalued now and threat of breakup down the road (apparently due to future massive success) does not change that now. Not even a little bit.
 
Clearly you're gonna have to make charging universal if you want the billions in fed infrastructure dollars. My hope is that it's just the new locations/stalls that need to be available for all EVs, and the existing (pre-BBB) supercharger network remains unchanged.

That would be a nice compromise and would mean Tesla owners get to keep all the primo locations exclusive.
I hope that even the new ones have both options. I'm going to be really mad if some ID6 is slow charging in a pull through SC stall when I'm hauling a trailer with my Cybertruck and have to wait.
 
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I was skeptical about any new announcements tonight. Trying to keep expectations in check. But Tesla just posted this on Instagram 10 minutes ago. Just a 6 second clip slowly zooming in on a Model Y, followed by some flashing lights (warning for those who are sensitive):


Here's a still:

1649339296621.png


Is it just me, or does this feel like a teaser for a new spec?
 
I thought I was the only inveterate EV loaner here. I've been loaning mine to friends when I hear they're planning long trips mostly to support Tesla and save some gas.

But with the advent of higher gas prices/Ukraine/Russia... I'm thinking of loaning out my Model X for an eager Uber driver just so it can do more good keeping gas from being burned instead of sitting around in my garage so much; everybody else has to pay more for gas, so this is my way of contributing to the cause.
I have a model y coming at the end of April and so I'm keeping my model 3 just to rent out on turo and lend to my friends and family so you're not the only one!
 
Yes we're all on CCS2 plug - but taking the hassle out I won't agree with.
The EU is good in designing compolex regulatory frameworks that allow non-vendor-locking solutions in a big scale across countries - in theory - so that's why CCS2 is only a plug definition, but the hole charging process is defined into multiple roles that can and will all be different vendor as well:

View attachment 790901

only Tesla combines the roles of CPO ChargepointOperator, EMP EMobilitPRovider and "User" aka CAR Software within one ecosystem, so it works seamlessly. And this graphic does leave out vendor of the charging-stall itself. i.e.:

You drive a Porsche (with tech by Rimac) to an EnBW Charging station, built by Compleo and use your Plugsurfing Charging Card via the Hubject roaming network .... if something fails, no single party/piece in the puzzle has the full picture.

And coming regulations for mandatory integration of local payment solutions (card readers, RFID etc...) won't make it easier but just more complex.
(Europe is not the US where every Vending Machine has a CreditCardReader :) )
Ahem.
I wish to raise up and show, "Object Lesson A". Once upon a time all medical records were kept on paper in doctors' office, or in some central paper filing cabinet physical database in a hospital or clinic. And Then, Computers Happened.

Initially, it was all ad-hoc. Some software company filled with sneaker-shod 20 or 30-somethings would put together a package for a doctor's office that they thought would sell and they would make few sales. Another company would be in competition with the first; and then there were companies that thought that hospitals would be a nifty target for this kind of thing, with even more money involved, and even more competitors.
Operative point: In the beginning, all these software databases were mutually incompatible because any three CS types in one company could easily make fifteen incompatible databases. And would, too: First version of the software may or may not have had an upgrade path to the second, and so on. You thought that Word vs. Wordperfect was a problem? You hadn't seen anything yet with these bozos.

And then there were the greedheads. Lock a customer into a particular software package and the details and exports of data into any other media, even paper, would be a Deep Dark Secret. Because greedheads just love lock-in.

Finally, incidents where people were actually dying because appropriate information wasn't available because of moving from one doctor's office to another/data in a hospital wasn't available to a specialist/etc., etc. started happening on a more and more frequent basis. Insurance companies couldn't get information in a decent fashion and so would deny claims (they love that) and people died because of that. Finally, the Federal Government and State Governments (in the U.S.) started getting into this whole medical information on Computers business, and they were getting frustrated.

And, so. There Was A Call By Government and Medical Business Leaders to Make A Standard for Medical Records. All the Software Companies Got Together And, Quickly, In A Calm Manner, Put Together A Standard That Was Open, Published, and allowed for Interoperability.

April Fools. The meetings were unattended, tied up in knots by those who did attend, all while nearly each individual company was promoting its Own Standard That It Offered To The World.. So long as everybody paid that company licensing fees, patent fees, copyright fees, and Any Other Fees They Could Think Of. (Think Adobe only allowing use of .pdf files if each and every one created resulted in $0.50 to Adobe.) And what few nonprofits that did try to Make The World a Better Place were actively sabotaged by greedheads, their lawyers, and lobbyists far and wide. By this time people in legislatures were being bribed given campaign donations to support one faction or another, and the whole thing disappeared into a swamp of lock-in attempts.

My current understanding is that there are, now, some 20 or 30 years after all this got started, some standards in existence, so at least diagnostic codes appear to be in some state of, "uniform" (and I wouldn't bet on that, either). Apparently forced into play by medical insurance companies. But transferring electronic records from one doctor's office to another? Don't think so, although I'll stand corrected if somebody knowledgeable says that it's all sweetness and light these days.

So, here come electric cars. The main impetus of the SAE has been, apparently, to do the behest of large, traditional ICE companies and lock out competitors, like Tesla, and to make an electric car connector that attempted to preserve ICE domination by making same low-power and cludgy to use. Tesla did offer its superior technology to the SAE and got turned down, for obvious reasons. The people who sit on the SAE committees are, you guessed it, in the employ of manufacturers, and, frankly, do their bidding.

But, occasionally, things do work out. I happen to work in Telecom. There are standards, OTN, SONET, SDH, dozens of other alphabet-soup standards, environmental for equipment, boxes on street corners, and it goes on and on. People get together with good will and come up with the best they can. The flakes (and, believe you me, we get them) get shuffled off to the side. But, there's a reason for this: In Big-Scene Telecom, the customers are big players. Verizon, AT&T. DTAG. British Telecom. France Telecom. There aren't a zillion of those guys, they've got the money, they talk to each other, and equipment manufacturers dance to the tune of the end-customers, not the other way around as it seems with Big Auto. If Big Telecom wants interoperability between different vendors' equipment.. guess what, they get it! And those equipment vendors who try for lock-in die a lonely death on the end of the vine. Not that the occasional value-added new stuff doesn't get in there from time to time, but there are Big Guys who want second sources and Guarantees.

So: Governments can make this happen. They have laws and guns. Hence, the EU's valiant attempt with vehicle charging stations. But part of that scene is that the people on these committees are (you guessed it) from the purveyors of this-and-that who appear to be trying to lock-out one vendor or another.

At least, in the coming meetings, there's going to be arguments made but, this time, it's not going to be in a conference room buried in a hotel somewhere with Nothing But The Enemy surrounding Tesla: There's going to be the administration, which includes the Commerce Department with some independent expertise, so one can hope that the Obvious Lying that infused previous attempts at all this will be toned down somewhat. And, at this point, it may be that the Big Guys (GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW, etc., etc.) may be Good And Tired of Playing Poke The Other Guy In The Eye While They Poke At Yours. So, there's hope. Who knows? Maybe Tesla's connector will become an SAE standard? (Don't hold your breath.. but maybe.)

Popcorn time.
 
I was skeptical about any new announcements tonight. Trying to keep expectations in check. But Tesla just posted this on Instagram 10 minutes ago. Just a 6 second clip slowly zooming in on a Model Y, followed by some flashing lights (warning for those who are sensitive):


Here's a still:

View attachment 790940

Is it just me, or does this feel like a teaser for a new spec?
Doubt it. Tesla needs to be careful because there are people taking deliveries or scheduled for deliveries for Fremont model Ys. Too high of a deviation will lead to many unhappy customers.

Now I welcome a performance + or LR+ variant, however customers can't be getting it at random and for no extra cost vs those who are stuck with Fremont Ys.
 
I was skeptical about any new announcements tonight. Trying to keep expectations in check. But Tesla just posted this on Instagram 10 minutes ago. Just a 6 second clip slowly zooming in on a Model Y, followed by some flashing lights (warning for those who are sensitive):


Here's a still:

View attachment 790940

Is it just me, or does this feel like a teaser for a new spec?
Don't think so. Just showing off the made in Texas 4680 Model Y, which is fantastic progress on its own.

Elon will speak at 9pm local time, and I expect a similar discourse compared to the Giga Berlin opening:
-importance of the mission / eco-challenges
-thanking the Texas team for great work
-explaining what the factory will do (first Y (including 4680's), later Cybertruck and Semi and whatever else)
-getting everybody pumped for Giga Texas, and Tesla in general
-Q&A

In the Q&A part we will of course hear questions regarding the Cybertruck or other products timelines (FSD beta v11, anyone?), and Elon will give the same answers we've heard many times.

Overall there will be maybe 2 nuggets of new information not know by die-hard fanbois, I imagine. But that's not the point of the Cyber Rodeo.

(I hope to be wrong, but the above is my expectation. It's a PR event meant for the masses, not for Tesla nerds).
 

TL: DR: 3 pics of the upcoming Cyber rodeo event later today.

One more from Twitter, most detailed pic of the (new?) CyberTruck so far.

TESLA.GTX.CyberTk.anon.rsz.jpg
 
Don't think so. Just showing off the made in Texas 4680 Model Y, which is fantastic progress on its own.

Elon will speak at 9pm local time, and I expect a similar discourse compared to the Giga Berlin opening:
-importance of the mission / eco-challenges
-thanking the Texas team for great work
-explaining what the factory will do (first Y (including 4680's), later Cybertruck and Semi and whatever else)
-getting everybody pumped for Giga Texas, and Tesla in general
-Q&A

In the Q&A part we will of course hear questions regarding the Cybertruck or other products timelines (FSD beta v11, anyone?), and Elon will give the same answers we've heard many times.

Overall there will be maybe 2 nuggets of new information not know by die-hard fanbois, I imagine. But that's not the point of the Cyber Rodeo.

(I hope to be wrong, but the above is my expectation. It's a PR event meant for the masses, not for Tesla nerds).
Yup, I'd be surprised if things didn't go close to exactly as you described here.
 
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Ron Baron on CNBC now.

positive on SpaceX and Ukraine

positive on EM and intense focus

describing being at Austin plant a few months ago and casting benefits - high quality and speed

received 20x on Tesla investment

GM 24 vs Tesla 310k in Q4

expects to stay invested for his lifetime, expects another 4x investment.

positive on SpaceX future

on inflation, stocks are the way to protect against inflation which he says stays about 5% not 2%. Tries to double investment about every 5 yrs. Tells a story about expensive steaks at $67/lb

Says Shopify better practices than Amazon. Modest investment.

Not an investor in Amazon himself unfortunately but studies logistics to understand it

not concerned about Twitter since small investment

”David” called him about Teslas metals sources, told missing the point which is the 20 million EV production, insurance, ride share, etc.

Says short sellers missing the greater picture.

positive results from early Schwab investments because revolutionized the industry

Ron Baron on investing in Tesla: "We expect to make up to five times our money over the next decade" | CNBC (1 hr ago)


Cheers!
 
Doubt it. Tesla needs to be careful because there are people taking deliveries or scheduled for deliveries for Fremont model Ys. Too high of a deviation will lead to many unhappy customers.

Now I welcome a performance + or LR+ variant, however customers can't be getting it at random and for no extra cost vs those who are stuck with Fremont Ys.

There's 3 options for Tesla to avoid "issues" with people freaking out on Fremont vs Austin Ys.

1) Make 4680 based LR and P Model Ys with identical range and performance specs to the Fremont ones (weight may well differ a little though)

2) Make that 279 mile range RWD Y we saw in EPA docs- unclear if this is 4680 or LFP.... could be 4680 with the intent of getting more cars out of less cells until 4680 ramp (incl. local) gets better at which point they do more of the first thing above.

3) A Plaid Y with 4680, that is priced above the P and only sold out of Austin. This seems by far the least likely thing because there's no Plaid 3 and it'd have to be priced too near the S/X to make a ton of sense.
 
3) A Plaid Y with 4680, that is priced above the P and only sold out of Austin. This seems by far the least likely thing because there's no Plaid 3 and it'd have to be priced too near the S/X to make a ton of sense.
This, more please! And they can do the same for the 3, which many have been asking for and Elon's hinted at.
 
There's 3 options for Tesla to avoid "issues" with people freaking out on Fremont vs Austin Ys.

1) Make 4680 based LR and P Model Ys with identical range and performance specs to the Fremont ones (weight may well differ a little though)

2) Make that 279 mile range RWD Y we saw in EPA docs- unclear if this is 4680 or LFP.... could be 4680 with the intent of getting more cars out of less cells until 4680 ramp (incl. local) gets better at which point they do more of the first thing above.

3) A Plaid Y with 4680, that is priced above the P and only sold out of Austin. This seems by far the least likely thing because there's no Plaid 3 and it'd have to be priced too near the S/X to make a ton of sense.

All 4680's going to Semi and Roadster until 4680 is in full production would be my guess: not economical to create a special assembly variant for the 4680's with structural battery packs. So no issues with Fremont vs Austin.

Then when Austin (and Shanghai) 4680 Y's come out at full production scale, Fremont can retool, logically to create new 4680 M3's
 
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