Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

True FOMO. If we decide to replace our Y for a new one having 4680's, I'd better order it today else prepare for an extra year to wait.
Bullish.

 

[AZRI11]

OTA software "recall"
Tesla will upgrade the motor control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through the vehicle remote upgrade (OTA) technology.

Tesla recalls 127,785 Model 3 vehicles in China due to risk of losing power while driving

The potential failure can cause the vehicle to fail to start if it occurs when the vehicle is in park, and can cause the vehicle to lose driving power if it occurs when the vehicle is in motion.

cnevpost.com

 

[JRP3]

OTA software "recall"
Tesla will upgrade the motor control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through the vehicle remote upgrade (OTA) technology.

Tesla recalls 127,785 Model 3 vehicles in China due to risk of losing power while driving

The potential failure can cause the vehicle to fail to start if it occurs when the vehicle is in park, and can cause the vehicle to lose driving power if it occurs when the vehicle is in motion.

cnevpost.com

Maybe not OTA in all cases:

For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA, Tesla will upgrade the motor control software for the vehicles to closely monitor their rear motor inverter and promptly replace the rear inverter with a related fault at no charge.

 

[Artful Dodger]

what a pessimist.

Yeah, lightweight too: just 5.8M shares of TSLA.

Cheers!

 

[geometro]

There's 3 options for Tesla to avoid "issues" with people freaking out on Fremont vs Austin Ys.

1) Make 4680 based LR and P Model Ys with identical range and performance specs to the Fremont ones (weight may well differ a little though)

2) Make that 279 mile range RWD Y we saw in EPA docs- unclear if this is 4680 or LFP.... could be 4680 with the intent of getting more cars out of less cells until 4680 ramp (incl. local) gets better at which point they do more of the first thing above.

3) A Plaid Y with 4680, that is priced above the P and only sold out of Austin. This seems by far the least likely thing because there's no Plaid 3 and it'd have to be priced too near the S/X to make a ton of sense.

Size of giga-texas makes me think this new offering has to be a high volume model Y, so I'm leaning towards option 2 (though I want option 3!).

 

[Nocturnal]

Ron Baron on investing in Tesla: "We expect to make up to five times our money over the next decade" | CNBC (1 hr ago)

Cheers!

5x more on my TSLA and 20-30x on my SpaceX? Ok that's enough I guess.

 

[StealthP3D]

RIVN at $40 a share is getting interesting to me. Sandy and other reviewers have nothing but good things to say about the trucks they've received. I know they still have a long way to go, but I'm starting a position here.

By taking a long-term position in RIVN, you are essentially betting that Rivian will become a world class automotive manufacturer with good margins. It really has very little to do with how good their first vehicle is, it's how cheaply they can produce it and the ones that follow. Because it's easy to come up with new designs that consumers like better, the hard part is actually making them at a competitive price when they have to compete against others for market share. That day is a long way off.

Do not underestimate Elon when he says, "manufacturing is hard". I think you have not fully appreciated the wisdom behind this oft repeated comment of Elon considering the primary reason you give for investing is that people have good things to say about their first product. That's just one small thing of many that Rivian needs to succeed.

The concern that prevents me from investing is that, even if and when they succeed, the path will have been so long that they will have racked up huge debt in the process and that's not very compatible with the current very high share price. There simply isn't enough potential reward to make me want to take the risk. It's all about risk/reward. Hope is not a viable investment strategy.

note: I felt much the same way about TSLA when they IPO'ed and at least through 2017. I basically didn't understand how tenacious Elon Musk was and how good he was at making difficult things happen. Considering he had zero experience manufacturing complex, mass produced items, I simply didn't have enough to go on. RJ Scaringe is much the same, but I don't see the early signs of magic that Elon displayed. He seems like a really nice guy with above average talent but I'm not confident that is enough given that 2022 is not 2012.

Hope and luck are not viable investment strategies, but I will wish you luck regardless. Because a successful Rivian would create a better future and it's your money on the line! If your reason for investment is to help create a better future then remember, don't bail out when the going gets tough! Because that's less helpful than never investing in the first place!

 

[jbcarioca]

I appreciate your clarification but it's important to realize that, so far, there has never been a punitive breakup of a monopoly. That means the government's goal is not to punish success or destroy value but to shake-up the competitive landscape going forward. In the case of break-ups, shareholders retain ownership of all the new parts of the broken-up business. New shares are issued for the newly spawned companies. This actually created additional shareholder value in the case of the breakup of "ma" Bell. Read the history.

My point is, even if something this unthinkable under current law happened far down the road, it's not necessarily a negative from a shareholder value perspective and unlikely to be a huge negative as you claim. I completely disagree that it's impact would be so large that it's a significant liability now. I would suggest you are thinking about it wrong from an investors point of view.

TSLA is massively undervalued now and threat of breakup down the road (apparently due to future massive success) does not change that now. Not even a little bit.

The only exceptions I can think of have been those in which the monopolist was nationalized. Oil companies have been prime examples (Aramco perhaps the largest one) but electric utilities, telephones, water suppliers, municipal transport and waste management services have all been examples. Others have happened but less often than these. In fact one can argue that monopolies tend to be supplanted by either nationalization or forced competition.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

5x more on my TSLA and 20-30x on my SpaceX? Ok that's enough I guess.

Within the context of the conversation, I believe Ron was referring to 5x return in his lifetime. That's obviously an open ended timeframe, but he turns 80 this fall.

 

[thesmokingman]

Within the context of the conversation, I believe Ron was referring to 5x return in his lifetime. That's obviously an open ended timeframe, but he turns 80 this fall.

5x at 6.2B in holdings... whose complaining?

 

[woodisgood]

what a pessimist.

You know what they say…pessimists are either right or pleasantly surprised.

 

[RichardL]

With RIVN at its current level - won't both Amazon and Ford have massive impairment charges for Q1? Or am I misunderstanding?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

With RIVN at its current level - won't both Amazon and Ford have massive impairment charges for Q1? Or am I misunderstanding?

Yes they will

 

[bkp_duke]

Yes they will

Actually, if memory serves me, they only book the impairment IF they have stock transactions and "realize" the price change. I don't know if F and AMZN sold any shares in Q1, but if they did not, they don't have to book the impairment.

If I'm wrong, please correct me and point to relevant guidelines.

 

[Ogre]

Are the front wheels lined up to look like one wheel, or is that a 3-wheeler hanging from the ceiling, like some kind of upscale Reliant Robin?

I asked myself that same question it does look like a 3 wheeler.

I assume Tesla wouldn't roll out a new vehicle into their lineup this way.

Maybe this is their way of telling the world they bought Nobe. (No I don't think they bought Nobe... but it would be cool)

 

[Krugerrand]

Ahem.
I wish to raise up and show, "Object Lesson A". Once upon a time all medical records were kept on paper in doctors' office, or in some central paper filing cabinet physical database in a hospital or clinic. And Then, Computers Happened.

Initially, it was all ad-hoc. Some software company filled with sneaker-shod 20 or 30-somethings would put together a package for a doctor's office that they thought would sell and they would make few sales. Another company would be in competition with the first; and then there were companies that thought that hospitals would be a nifty target for this kind of thing, with even more money involved, and even more competitors.
Operative point: In the beginning, all these software databases were mutually incompatible because any three CS types in one company could easily make fifteen incompatible databases. And would, too: First version of the software may or may not have had an upgrade path to the second, and so on. You thought that Word vs. Wordperfect was a problem? You hadn't seen anything yet with these bozos.

And then there were the greedheads. Lock a customer into a particular software package and the details and exports of data into any other media, even paper, would be a Deep Dark Secret. Because greedheads just love lock-in.

Finally, incidents where people were actually dying because appropriate information wasn't available because of moving from one doctor's office to another/data in a hospital wasn't available to a specialist/etc., etc. started happening on a more and more frequent basis. Insurance companies couldn't get information in a decent fashion and so would deny claims (they love that) and people died because of that. Finally, the Federal Government and State Governments (in the U.S.) started getting into this whole medical information on Computers business, and they were getting frustrated.

And, so. There Was A Call By Government and Medical Business Leaders to Make A Standard for Medical Records. All the Software Companies Got Together And, Quickly, In A Calm Manner, Put Together A Standard That Was Open, Published, and allowed for Interoperability.

April Fools. The meetings were unattended, tied up in knots by those who did attend, all while nearly each individual company was promoting its Own Standard That It Offered To The World.. So long as everybody paid that company licensing fees, patent fees, copyright fees, and Any Other Fees They Could Think Of. (Think Adobe only allowing use of .pdf files if each and every one created resulted in $0.50 to Adobe.) And what few nonprofits that did try to Make The World a Better Place were actively sabotaged by greedheads, their lawyers, and lobbyists far and wide. By this time people in legislatures were being bribed given campaign donations to support one faction or another, and the whole thing disappeared into a swamp of lock-in attempts.

My current understanding is that there are, now, some 20 or 30 years after all this got started, some standards in existence, so at least diagnostic codes appear to be in some state of, "uniform" (and I wouldn't bet on that, either). Apparently forced into play by medical insurance companies. But transferring electronic records from one doctor's office to another? Don't think so, although I'll stand corrected if somebody knowledgeable says that it's all sweetness and light these days.

So, here come electric cars. The main impetus of the SAE has been, apparently, to do the behest of large, traditional ICE companies and lock out competitors, like Tesla, and to make an electric car connector that attempted to preserve ICE domination by making same low-power and cludgy to use. Tesla did offer its superior technology to the SAE and got turned down, for obvious reasons. The people who sit on the SAE committees are, you guessed it, in the employ of manufacturers, and, frankly, do their bidding.

But, occasionally, things do work out. I happen to work in Telecom. There are standards, OTN, SONET, SDH, dozens of other alphabet-soup standards, environmental for equipment, boxes on street corners, and it goes on and on. People get together with good will and come up with the best they can. The flakes (and, believe you me, we get them) get shuffled off to the side. But, there's a reason for this: In Big-Scene Telecom, the customers are big players. Verizon, AT&T. DTAG. British Telecom. France Telecom. There aren't a zillion of those guys, they've got the money, they talk to each other, and equipment manufacturers dance to the tune of the end-customers, not the other way around as it seems with Big Auto. If Big Telecom wants interoperability between different vendors' equipment.. guess what, they get it! And those equipment vendors who try for lock-in die a lonely death on the end of the vine. Not that the occasional value-added new stuff doesn't get in there from time to time, but there are Big Guys who want second sources and Guarantees.

So: Governments can make this happen. They have laws and guns. Hence, the EU's valiant attempt with vehicle charging stations. But part of that scene is that the people on these committees are (you guessed it) from the purveyors of this-and-that who appear to be trying to lock-out one vendor or another.

At least, in the coming meetings, there's going to be arguments made but, this time, it's not going to be in a conference room buried in a hotel somewhere with Nothing But The Enemy surrounding Tesla: There's going to be the administration, which includes the Commerce Department with some independent expertise, so one can hope that the Obvious Lying that infused previous attempts at all this will be toned down somewhat. And, at this point, it may be that the Big Guys (GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW, etc., etc.) may be Good And Tired of Playing Poke The Other Guy In The Eye While They Poke At Yours. So, there's hope. Who knows? Maybe Tesla's connector will become an SAE standard? (Don't hold your breath.. but maybe.)

Popcorn time.

Great read. Great post. Should go in the merits thread.

Here’s my prediction. The age of this kind of poop is coming to an end. I’ve long been saying ‘empire’. The difference, though, from movie script empires is that the one coming is under the control of a truly ‘good’ person with altruistic, yet practical, logical, pragmatic, intentions.

Out of the blue I heard from an acquaintance whose political and such beliefs are vastly different than my own and from a state that doesn’t yet allow direct sales. They contacted me to express their positive thoughts about Elon Musk post his Twitter venture. They had only glowing comments and had been paying close enough attention to not have been fooled by much of the media poop; billionaire that doesn’t pay taxes, blah, blah.

Honestly, I was surprised because up to that point I hadn’t believed they were capable of such individual critical thinking and revelation.

And then the very next day a good friend texted me, someone who’s argued against me saying the OEMs are going to be put to death by Tesla, and said; ‘****! He’s going to take over the world, isn’t he?’

Oh, it’s happening, sweetheart. Mark my words. I was only off by 3 weeks #teamaustin. And if we’re being honest, it could have easily gone my way. The timing, I suspect, was more about logistics and scheduling than actually which factory was ready first.

 

[Ogre]

RJ Scaringe is much the same, but I don't see the early signs of magic that Elon displayed. He seems like a really nice guy with above average talent but I'm not confident that is enough given that 2022 is not 2012.

Worth pointing out.

Rivian is 12 years old, Scaringe has been at the helm the whole time. They've had billions from Amazon and Ford, and others for 3+ years.

If there was any magic, we'd have seen it by now. Not claiming he's incompetent, but I don't see the spark.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why should Tesla pay to advertise when they get 6:30 min feature promo's for free on Fox Busines?

Rumors fly at Tesla's cyber rodeo | Fox Business (1 day ago)

Cheers!

P.S. If Tesla opens up orders for a special Made-in-Texas Model Y tonight, I'm taking a victory lap.

 

[AudubonB]

I asked myself that same question it does look like a 3 wheeler.

I assume Tesla wouldn't roll out a new vehicle into their lineup this way.

Maybe this is their way of telling the world they bought Nobe. (No I don't think they bought Nobe... but it would be cool)

What? Whompy wheels even inside its own factory? Word.

 

[samppa]

Sono motors has partnered with Valmet for producing the Sion. Production start 2023.
SEV stock is $4.33 now

New Partnership – Sono Motors to Produce Sion Solar Electric Vehicle at Valmet Automotive - Sono Motors

Sono Motors and Valmet Automotive Announce the Signing of a Term Sheet Concerning the Production of the Sion Solar Electric Vehicle (SEV) At Valmet Automotive’s Production Line in Uusikaupunki, Finland. The Contract Manufacturer, With Long Experience in Production for Premium OEMs, Will Provide

ir.sonomotors.com