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Rob Maurer on his latest Tesla Daily podcast shared some news he had received from his sources (It appears he has an internal person feeding him some info):

Two bits of info for Shanghai Factory:
- Management are trying hard to avoid “zero production” in April from Shanghai
- The “Phase 3” expansion of the Shanghai factory that was due to occur in April has been cancelled.

That last one seems to be a big one! No more Phase 3 expansion?
 
And that's how YouTube video watching can easily spiral your thinking in one way or the other. It feels like you're gathering information, but it's just not a good idea.

Every time you "think about" something it's merely an opportunity for your subconscious to push it in a certain direction and further from reality.

Shanghai expansion being delayed until covid rules ease can quickly turn into "Shanghai expansion cancelled". Now just today we're hearing Shanghai lockdown may be easing. So we have word spreading of a cancellation, when in fact there could be a meeting going on to recommence expansion next week.

Discussion here is far more valuable than watching YouTube "experts" or leaning on Twitter posts.
 
One criticism of Tesla has been that they get less than rated range in the real world compared to other EV's. Tesla may be adjusting their ratings to better reflect real world results.
But they should really adjust all the vehicles and not have to sell this one for less. Let's see how they price it.

It looks to me that they are about 10% off from the energy target of 5x versus the 2170 cell assuming the vehicles (4680 versus 2170) weigh the same. I don't think this is a big deal as we have routinely seen this type of improvement over time on the prior 2170 and 18650 cells. They probably decided to move forward and do a later iteration on cell chemistry rather than continue to delay all the other manufacturing improvements that come with the structural pack.
 
The range for Austin Std AWD Model Y is likely correct

Range for a Model 3 SR+ w.2170s was about 240 miles (now largely superceded by LFP packs by CATL).

But still, work with me here... on Battery Day, Tesla told us that 4680 structural pack would result in a 16% increase in range.

240 miles * 1.16 = 279 miles

Coincidence? or promise delivered.

Cheeers!
 
TSLA just spanked it's Mid-BB at 10:00 ET: (up +4.29%)

sc.TSLA.10-DayChart.2022-04-12.10-00.png


Cheers to the Longs!
 
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That price makes perfect sense to me. I don't expect volume production for awhile so Tesla needs demand to be low.

It's crazy to think that I took delivery of my MY Long Range exactly one year ago with a price of just $49,900.
Plus FSD @ $10K vs $12K today;
April 2019 $5,000
May 2019 $6,000
August 2019 $7,000
July 2020 $8,000
October 2020 $10,000
January 2022 $12,000
 
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U.S. Tech macros buoyant in the pre-Market, awaiting CPI/inflation data at 08:30 a.m. EST

EDIT: Numbers were good (the Market tells me so) ;)

Futures extend gains after March CPI data | REUTERS (8:47am EDT)

View attachment 792714

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

View attachment 792724
When HODLing pays off... but so hard to do.
So tempted to exit a bit based on macros yesterday with fears of recent recession.
Then I catch myself and think "That's dumb, why didn't I sell at 1,150?" Problem solved, can't do stupid.
 
And that's how YouTube video watching can easily spiral your thinking in one way or the other. It feels like you're gathering information, but it's just not a good idea.

Every time you "think about" something it's merely an opportunity for your subconscious to push it in a certain direction and further from reality.

Shanghai expansion being delayed until covid rules ease can quickly turn into "Shanghai expansion cancelled". Now just today we're hearing Shanghai lockdown may be easing. So we have word spreading of a cancellation, when in fact there could be a meeting going on to recommence expansion next week.

Discussion here is far more valuable than watching YouTube "experts" or leaning on Twitter posts.
While this is generally true, Rob Maurer’s channel has nearly perfect information accuracy, even more so than this thread.

In this case the OP making reference to Rob’s video said Phase Three was cancelled when the actual statement on Tesla Daily was: “I’ve also been told that the Phase Three expansion, which was originally planned for April, has also been delayed due to interruption of local government approval processes.”

I don’t mean to criticize you or OP, just needed to support Tesla Daily.
 
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As some are antsy about Shanghai covid/Giga Shanghai shutdown situation, I messed around on the web and found that

Shanghai government holds daily covid press briefing 10am local (10pm EDT). Not long before that, covid case numbers for previous day are published here:
上海卫生健康委员会 ((Shanghai Municipal Health Commission)

Since Mar. 28th, the first day of Giga Shanghai shutdown:
1649772150211.png
1649772654233.png


Nobody knows how long the shutdown will last. Regardless how reliable the data are (seemingly reliable, as the exact address of each confirmed case is published!!!), the trend is indicative.
 
Range for a Model 3 SR+ w.2170s was about 240 miles (now largely superceded by LFP packs by CATL).

But still, work with me here... on Battery Day, Tesla told us that 4680 structural pack would result in a 16% increase in range.

240 miles * 1.16 = 279 miles

Coincidence? or promise delivered.

Cheeers!
But the SR had 5% better efficiency due to the lower weight.

I have looked at the videos closely and the 4680 car has 828 battery cells. This is 7% fewer than you would expect if they were trying to have the same battery capacity as the 2170 cars.

Tesla was clearly targeting 5x the energy for the 4860 cell. The 2170 LR car has 4416 cells. 4416/5 is approx 883. So some of the range difference is due to having fewer cells.

It appears the cars weigh the same (2170 LR and 4680) as the efficiencies are very close.

But the new car has 15-16% less range than the current 2170 LR car. If the weight of the cars is the same (2170 LR and 4680) it appears Tesla did not quite hit the 5x energy for the 4860 cell.

Either the energy of the cells is about 4.5x (10% under target) the 2170 or they are software limiting until they get more experience with the new cells.
 
Or they're positioning it such that when the LR 4680 comes out, it gets a slight range boost... say 340, so that when you charge to 90% you're still over 300.

Prices will adjust when they have the whole line on 4680 to make them make sense. That's one advantage to Tesla's ever changing prices... no one is surprised when they change now. My guess is that the LR price will go up when it goes to 4680, and the whole line will stay up until the backlog of orders is satisfied... at which point they'll start dropping them to stimulate demand. I think that even with a constant new flow of factories and production numbers rising like crazy, it'll still take a couple of years before they even have to think about any price reductions.