Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Reuters picking up the Monday Shanghai Gigafactory reopening.

Tesla looks to resume production at Shanghai plant on April 18

Tesla is preparing to resume production at its Shanghai plant on Monday following a three-week stoppage, having received the go-ahead from local authorities, two people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Usain]

Do you think it could be a long game to drum attention for a Tesla Social Media Platform?

I certainly hope not. Given a few years, Elon could definitely build such a platform and make it successful. But this would not be easy. Social media is a really tough game. Competing platforms are always being developed. New platforms get trendy, then they start to die. As both Facebook and Twitter have found out, even the most popular platforms have a tough time staying ahead.

Fixing Twitter might be a reasonable pursuit. But I think pursuing a new social media platform from scratch would require a serious waste of Elon's talents.

 

[Cobbler]

Monday 11th April:

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Friday 15th April:

 

[JRP3]

as well as nearly zero time-based self-discharge when the salt is solid

No advantage over lithium.

 

[ZsoZso]

View attachment 793893

IMHO, TMC is more valuable than Twitter.
One could argue that if you calculate the value based on the sum of information content value, then Twitter would be negative.
Even if you count based on users, it is questionable if positive contributor values (like Elon) could counter all the negatives accumulated by idiot masses (like TSLAQ) who outnumber the positives by orders of magnitude.

but that is just my opinion, YMMV

 

[MartinAustin]

Interesting video about potentially re-jigging the battery production at Giga Nevada.

 

[UncaNed]

My idea is to create large desalination plants on the coasts and pump water into large manmade reservoirs in the mountains as both a seasonal storage and national irrigation system. A “water grid”.

How about finding a passive or semi-passive way to collect condensation (saves reverse-osmosis energy) on a huge scale at those high altitude reservoirs (no pumping energy needed!), or at least partway up those large reservoirs (less pumping energy), possibly on the upwind side of mountains where adiabatic cooling already aids condensation or something?

And I trust we're gonna put floating PV solar on those mountaintop reservoirs to lower evaporation rates and generate some power in that clear mountain air for the pumps there too, right?

Please reply only on the Climate Change/Global /warming thread, where I've copied this post, not here since Of Topic.

 

[KnowLittle]

OT Public Service Message on how to use Twitter without descending into rage by your political affiliations:

Excerpts from 'Zvi Mowshowitz'; "How to Best Use Twitter" :

How To Best Use Twitter

[Note: While I do intend to write more about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this post is intended to address this only indirectly rather than directly, by helping illustrate how to find other sources of information, and you are once again implored to rely on other news sources. I need to get...

thezvi.substack.com

Twitter by default will present posts using an algorithm. Things it thinks you will be more interested in, or that will generate more engagement, or that otherwise it decides on a whim to show you, will be shown to you. Things it disfavors will be dropped on the floor. This is no good. The biggest issues are: It makes it impossible to follow things in real time. It makes it impossible to reliably see things you decide you want to see. It makes it impossible to know when you’re ‘done’ with new content. It makes it impossible to avoid seeing things more than once. It inserts random stuff you never asked for. Twitter’s website is fine for sending direct messages and chatting. It’s acceptable for checking individual profiles to see what they have to say and whether you want to include such a person in your information diet. It’s also fine for viewing an individual list. That’s another reason to emphasize lists over following people. However, for the purpose of following the people you follow, Twitter’s website is useless. You want to use something else. My choice has been Tweetdeck. Tweetdeck allows you to have lots of columns, one for people you follow, one for notifications and then any number of additional lists. Also it’s free. It is definitely not perfect. When I want to explore a particular Tweet or screenshot it, I still open a default Twitter window for that. So there is probably something out there that works better, and hopefully people will let me know about it in the comments. But Tweetdeck is easy to set up, easy to use, free and has served me well.​

 

[lascavarian]

I certainly hope not. Given a few years, Elon could definitely build such a platform and make it successful. But this would not be easy. Social media is a really tough game. Competing platforms are always being developed. New platforms get trendy, then they start to die. As both Facebook and Twitter have found out, even the most popular platforms have a tough time staying ahead.

Fixing Twitter might be a reasonable pursuit. But I think pursuing a new social media platform from scratch would require a serious waste of Elon's talents.

My position is that a build up from the metal/chip would be a best of class and revolutionary approach. Tesla builds their own systems and SW.

Twitter is someone’s else’s dog food. Dump it and start from fresh. The rough spots are clear.

Build in cyber defenses, build in StarLink support and authentication, build in currency transaction support and citizenship/voting authentication.

Eliminate as much deception as possible. Separate data and use probabilities rather than rhetoric to build community consensus building blocks.

The world needs a form of multi-factor authentication from orbit. Twitter hardly scratches the surface of the possible utility. This will be the model for Mars.

Go first principles and fix it in a durable fashion. Fixing Twitter is like fixing GM, better to just go straight to a vastly better solution than to try to drag the past into the future. YMMV

 

[Sofie]

I like those price targets. They are higher than mine as I'm being super conservative with my PE Ratio predictions, but if TSLA even hits their Bear Case by 2026 I'll be super freaking happy!

Not saying I expect their conservative prices at all (likely it’ll be much higher!) but yeah even their bear case, I’d have way more than I’d even know what to do with in my lifetime. Wow. I guess I never really did the math on that.

 

[Usain]

My position is that a build up from the metal/chip would be a best of class and revolutionary approach. Tesla builds their own systems and SW.

Twitter is someone’s else’s dog food. Dump it and start from fresh. The rough spots are clear.

Build in cyber defenses, build in StarLink support and authentication, build in currency transaction support and citizenship/voting authentication.

Eliminate as much deception as possible. Separate data and use probabilities rather than rhetoric to build community consensus building blocks.

The world needs a form of multi-factor authentication from orbit. Twitter hardly scratches the surface of the possible utility. This will be the model for Mars.

Go first principles and fix it in a durable fashion. Fixing Twitter is like fixing GM, better to just go straight to a vastly better solution than to try to drag the past into the future. YMMV

That all sounds great. Let's rebuild the whole internet from first principles.

But like you said, it requires starting fresh. If that's what Elon had in mind then obviously, acquisition of Twitter would be the wrong move. So I don't think that's what he is aiming for.

At first I thought there must be some grander scheme. But after watching Elon yesterday, I take him at his word. He really just wants transparency from Twitter. He wants the Twitter platform to be more trusted. I don't think he has thought much beyond that.

I think Plan B is a hostile takeover rather than launching a Twitter competitor. At least I hope so. Rebuilding the internet sounds wonderful, but it would make the Model 3 ramp look like a stroll in the park.

 

[Prunesquallor]

IMHO, TMC is more valuable than Twitter.
One could argue that if you calculate the value based on the sum of information content value, then Twitter would be negative.
Even if you count based on users, it is questionable if positive contributor values (like Elon) could counter all the negatives accumulated by idiot masses (like TSLAQ) who outnumber the positives by orders of magnitude.

but that is just my opinion, YMMV

Yep. Elon should buy TMC (or maybe just this thread). Mods get on BOD. Supporting Members are awarded shareholder status. @Krugerrand is Sergeant-at-Arms.

 

[lafrisbee]

< COURT JESTER

 

[Krugerrand]

< COURT JESTER

You’re funny and all and maybe I’d nominate you for apprentice court jester, but @ZeApelido is the obvious choice for CCJ.

 

[Gigapress]

No advantage over lithium.

My understanding is that Li-ion batteries self-discharge around 2% per month which is just fine for an EV or a Megapack but this results in loss around 10-30% for a seasonal or annual usage cycle. I just checked several sources to confirm this.

This freeze-thaw molten salt battery has nearly zero self-discharge when the salt is solid.

However the main advantage would be raw materials cost and manufacturing cost.

Overall, I think a design like this would be superior to Megapack for the long term storage niche.

 

[ggies07]

Interesting video about potentially re-jigging the battery production at Giga Nevada.

Yep! The Limiting Factor likes it as well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514956299846492164

 

[lascavarian]

Rebuilding the internet sounds wonderful, but it would make the Model 3 ramp look like a stroll in the park.

Understood. However, consider that EM is starting, STARTING with a $40 billion investment for old tech.

That pot of money dwarfs the spending for both Tesla and SpaceX R&D. Why buy a bag of past mistakes? Again, where is the efficiency in trying to fix GM?

I understand it is very hard but what is the value of a $billion dollar swamp built on wrong-headed decisions? Just bow your head and burry it while treasuring the many mistakes learned.

Today there is no need to sell the value of the internet through a cascade of regrettable compromises in an attempt to make things seem “free”. Build value and charge for it as I see it.

Thanks for your comments.

 

[Knightshade]

I like those price targets. They are higher than mine as I'm being super conservative with my PE Ratio predictions, but if TSLA even hits their Bear Case by 2026 I'll be super freaking happy!

Note their price targets are based on 60% of Tesla value coming from robotaxis in 2026.

A claim of which I am highly highly dubious.

Even in their BEAR case they have ride hailing being 30% of EBITDA in 2026.

I'd put value on energy and insurance (neither of which they put value on) way before I put any on robotaxis given the current state of FSD.

 

[Ogre]

A few months ago Tesla applied for a grant to install CCS chargers in TX. Unfortunately, Tesla was not awarded any of the grant money.

This article from Forbes has some interesting numbers estimating the costs to install chargers based on the amount requested by each network.

The language in the article is also very favorable to Tesla (However, I disagree with the writer implying that chargers at Buc-ee's are bad idea )

Presumably the bulk of the difference if the fact that Tesla chargers will pay themselves back.

This article sounds like the process was rigged from the start. The choice wasn't made on no basis... They accepted bids on a first come first serve basis. likely someone's cousin had a bid handy the day the process opened. It's likely half these chargers are non-functional in 2 years.

 

[jerry33]

Understood. However, consider that EM is starting, STARTING with a $40 billion investment for old tech.

That pot of money dwarfs the spending for both Tesla and SpaceX R&D. Why buy a bag of past mistakes? Again, where is the efficiency in trying to fix GM?

I doubt they are trying to fix GM. The plan is likely: Purchase Twitter. Develop new platform. Migrate users. Shut down Twitter.