Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Note their price targets are based on 60% of Tesla value coming from robotaxis in 2026.

A claim of which I am highly highly dubious.

Even in their BEAR case they have ride hailing being 30% of EBITDA in 2026.

I'd put value on energy and insurance (neither of which they put value on) way before I put any on robotaxis given the current state of FSD.

Thats ark for you. They come out with wildly optimistic scenarios for all their stocks.

FSD till 2030's value does NOT come with robotaxi revenue but from FSD buy in/subscription if autonomy is mostly solved in 2 to 3 years. It will take a decade or two for Americans to even come comfortable with the idea of letting go of their cars and summon a Tesla for every day use. I would focus on battery scaling than robotaxi revenue.

 

[mongo]

My understanding is that Li-ion batteries self-discharge around 2% per month which is just fine for an EV or a Megapack but this results in loss around 10-30% for a seasonal or annual usage cycle. I just checked several sources to confirm this.

This freeze-thaw molten salt battery has nearly zero self-discharge when the salt is solid.

However the main advantage would be raw materials cost and manufacturing cost.

Overall, I think a design like this would be superior to Megapack for the long term storage niche.

It's a number that shows up on Wikipedia and other sites, but 2% is way higher than reality. (For specific SOC / cell voltages)
Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director of Investor Relations


OK. Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from institutional investors. The first question is, proponents of alternative grid storage technologies claim that lithium-ion is unsuited for long-term storage at scale due to vampire drain.


Could 4680 cells address this limitation? Is the limitation even relevant for charging the energy equation?

Unknown speaker

Yes. Just let me jump in on the vampire drain. That's definitely not the issue. Good lithium ion cell self discharges less than 0.001% of its energy per day.

So it's -- this vampire drain is maybe not that...

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

I just love they call it vampires.

Unknown speaker

Yeah. I think the challenge with seasonal storage is your value proposition drops from hundreds of useful full cycles per year to less than maybe 10 or maybe even less than five cycles per year. So it's just a different type of technology altogether that would make sense, given that it's more than an order of magnitude, different use case.
..Continues

 

[Usain]

My understanding is that Li-ion batteries self-discharge around 2% per month which is just fine for an EV or a Megapack but this results in loss around 10-30% for a seasonal or annual usage cycle. I just checked several sources to confirm this.

This freeze-thaw molten salt battery has nearly zero self-discharge when the salt is solid.

However the main advantage would be raw materials cost and manufacturing cost.

Overall, I think a design like this would be superior to Megapack for the long term storage niche.

If I recall correctly, Tony Seba's approach is to overbuild solar and wind so that you need fewer batteries and don't need any seasonal storage. I think he showed that could work as well.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

SP is barely moving today. Manipulation!!!

 

[Electroman]

I certainly wont pay for Twitter

Subscription is only for heavy users, who have hundreds of thousands of followers and 'Blue check mark' users and corporate and Govt official accounts. Not for peasants like us.

I am pretty sure given how much of their daily lives and communication revolves around Twitter, every one of those big users will gladly pay $5 per month. No sweat. Heck I will play $3 per month just to get rid of ads. It is less than a cup of Starbucks coffee.

 

[Usain]

Understood. However, consider that EM is starting, STARTING with a $40 billion investment for old tech.

That pot of money dwarfs the spending for both Tesla and SpaceX R&D. Why buy a bag of past mistakes? Again, where is the efficiency in trying to fix GM?

I understand it is very hard but what is the value of a $billion dollar swamp built on wrong-headed decisions? Just bow your head and burry it while treasuring the many mistakes learned.

Today there is no need to sell the value of the internet through a cascade of regrettable compromises in an attempt to make things seem “free”. Build value and charge for it as I see it.

Thanks for your comments.

I do buy into the dream.

But the risk would be that the project would be the worst example of "Second System Effect" in human history.

I really just want Elon to stick to the problems he's already trying to solve. To do this right, it would take up 110% of his time.

 

[Electroman]

This looks like potentially huge technology for long-term storage needs and the research institution is reputable. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is one of the premier scientific organizations in the world as a part of United States Department of Energy, and one of its areas of specialty is sustainable energy, which makes me less skeptical of this just being yet another Battery Breakthrough announcement about dead-end technology.

“Pumped hydro storage is the most used long-term energy storage mechanism across the globe, but power distribution is limited due to regulatory concerns and geological constraints. Conversely, green hydrogen generated by excess electricity from renewable energy is a possible solution for seasonal storage, but it is hampered by hydrogen storage challenges and low roundtrip efficiency—the amount of energy put into storage that can later be retrieved. Finally, conventional batteries are not a recommended solution because of self-discharge, limiting storage to only days or weeks.

Researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have developed a solution for long-term, seasonal energy storage. The innovative Temperature-based Hibernating Battery effectively cuts off the self-charge function during the battery’s idling period, making it ideal for long-term electricity storage without loss of electricity for several months.”

So basically, it’s a battery that only does anything when at least 180 degrees Celsius, so it doesn’t gradually leak ions like regular batteries.

View attachment 793735

It seems to check all the boxes:

• Simple, probably easy to manufacture
• Raw Materials are cheap ($23/kWh now, claimed future technical roadmap to $8/kWh if iron replaces nickel), abundant, not environmentally or ethically disastrous to obtain, fully recyclable, geographically widespread, and flexible with respect to anode & cathode metal choices
• 90% Energy Efficient per charge-discharge cycle, even for long term use
  • Can save energy for YEARS if desired, although main usage would be more profitable weekly and seasonal storage
• Safe - won’t burst into flames, explode, shock anyone while “hibernating”, nor emit uncontrolled toxins
• Mechanically robust, not fragile
• Stable in wide temperature range
• Decent energy density for stationary storage (246 Wh/kg theoretical max; no data provided on actual achieved current value)

View attachment 793740

Clean Technical intro article
PNNL Brochure
PNNL Paper for Nerds

There was another odd article on CT about using Trucks to truck water down a mountain, use regen to charge their batteries and use that charge to do other things.

New Electric Trucks-For-Hydropower Scheme: Look Ma, No Dams

Fleets of electric trucks could be deployed in low impact hydropower systems that deploy existing roads instead of new infrastructure.

cleantechnica.com

I like the concept, but we could even improvise on that on having a chain of large buckets of water sliding down a mountain on rails, and generating electricity through regen and sending it to grid. It is a closed loop, where the buckets are roped up the mountain using a fraction of electricity it generates while coming down. The question is will this be more efficient than a standard damn and turbines?.

 

[2daMoon]

My understanding is that Li-ion batteries self-discharge around 2% per month which is just fine for an EV or a Megapack but this results in loss around 10-30% for a seasonal or annual usage cycle. I just checked several sources to confirm this.

This freeze-thaw molten salt battery has nearly zero self-discharge when the salt is solid.

However the main advantage would be raw materials cost and manufacturing cost.

Overall, I think a design like this would be superior to Megapack for the long term storage niche.

How does the energy required to re-heat the salt affect overall efficiency?

 

[Mengy]

Not saying I expect their conservative prices at all (likely it’ll be much higher!) but yeah even their bear case, I’d have way more than I’d even know what to do with in my lifetime. Wow. I guess I never really did the math on that.

Oh I've done the math on it, and every time I do I just sit back and smile.


I also jump up and try to figure out ways to buy more shares right freaking now!!!!!

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Oh I've done the math on it, and every time I do I just sit back and smile.


I also jump up and try to figure out ways to buy more shares right freaking now!!!!!

Monday perhaps?
...but at what price?

 

[JRP3]

My understanding is that Li-ion batteries self-discharge around 2% per month which is just fine for an EV or a Megapack but this results in loss around 10-30% for a seasonal or annual usage cycle. I just checked several sources to confirm this.

As mongo points out this is a myth, even though data sheets may show it. I have a lithium ion cell that's probably over 10 years old now that I've never charged or discharged that I check periodically, today it's sitting at 3.85V, same as it's been for years.

 

[lascavarian]

SP is barely moving today. Manipulation!!!

Not to mention the fake low volume

 

[brantse]

There was another odd article on CT about using Trucks to truck water down a mountain, use regen to charge their batteries and use that charge to do other things.

New Electric Trucks-For-Hydropower Scheme: Look Ma, No Dams

Fleets of electric trucks could be deployed in low impact hydropower systems that deploy existing roads instead of new infrastructure.

cleantechnica.com

I like the concept, but we could even improvise on that on having a chain of large buckets of water sliding down a mountain on rails, and generating electricity through regen and sending it to grid. It is a closed loop, where the buckets are roped up the mountain using a fraction of electricity it generates while coming down. The question is will this be more efficient than a standard damn and turbines?.

A much better solution is to use a tower with hoists attached to it that can raise and lower weights as needed for energy storage. Believe it or not, I think this could have a very high round trip efficiency, certainly much higher than pumped water storage.

Something like this - Gravity Energy Storage Will Show Its Potential in 2021

 

[DarkandStormy]

That TED talk was *excellent* in that it let Elon set the record straight on a couple items, among others the SEC bastardly injunction ( Funding secured ) the SF SEC office knew it was indeed secured, the banks essentially FORCED Elon to cave in .. so it was NOT a lie - he had a gun to his child's head AND THEY KNEW IT, of course the SEC is part of the anti Tesla FUD (together with the financial industry )

Also the bit about how Tesla was *created* by Elon and JB Straubel - intially Eberhard et al had NO patents, no special sauce ... so if anything Tesla really is the creation of Elon and Straubel.

Hope someone here can post a transcript of the talk ASAP .. a lot also said about Twitter, settles it nicely. Of course he has a plan B...

From Gary (on Titter .. )

View attachment 793708

Wait, so at the time, Tesla's funding was so precarious that if he didn't settle with the SEC, it would have gone "bankrupt immediately?" I must have missed this "going concern" 8-K filing.

But at the same time, he had alternate funding to take all of Tesla private?

Update on Taking Tesla Private | Tesla

www.tesla.com

Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private. They first met with me at the beginning of 2017 to express this interest because of the important need to diversify away from oil. They then held several additional meetings with me over the next year to reiterate this interest and to try to move forward with a going private transaction. Obviously, the Saudi sovereign fund has more than enough capital needed to execute on such a transaction.

Recently, after the Saudi fund bought almost 5% of Tesla stock through the public markets, they reached out to ask for another meeting. That meeting took place on July 31st. During the meeting, the Managing Director of the fund expressed regret that I had not moved forward previously on a going private transaction with them, and he strongly expressed his support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla at this time. I understood from him that no other decision makers were needed and that they were eager to proceed.

I left the July 31st meeting with no question that a deal with the Saudi sovereign fund could be closed, and that it was just a matter of getting the process moving. This is why I referred to “funding secured” in the August 7th announcement.

Following the August 7th announcement, I have continued to communicate with the Managing Director of the Saudi fund. He has expressed support for proceeding subject to financial and other due diligence and their internal review process for obtaining approvals. He has also asked for additional details on how the company would be taken private, including any required percentages and any regulatory requirements.

Another critical point to emphasize is that before anyone is asked to decide on going private, full details of the plan will be provided, including the proposed nature and source of the funding to be used. However, it would be premature to do so now. I continue to have discussions with the Saudi fund, and I also am having discussions with a number of other investors, which is something that I always planned to do since I would like for Tesla to continue to have a broad investor base. It is appropriate to complete those discussions before presenting a detailed proposal to an independent board committee.

In his own blog post, Elon admits that the Saudis hadn't even completed their own due diligence and internal review process for such a transaction. He essentially admits funding was not "secured" in the legal sense.

 

[15Peter20]

SP is barely moving today. Manipulation!!!

I’m guessing Max Pain is around $985.

 

[Iain]

Twitter Adopts Poison Pill Plan to Block Elon Musk From Increasing Stake

Twitter adopted a poison-pill takeover defense to make it difficult for Elon Musk to increase ownership beyond 15%. The move comes a day after the tech entrepreneur made a $43 billion unsolicited bid for the social-media company.

www.wsj.com

It looks like Twitter has blocked Elon for at least a year. Shanghai is reopening and the stock is not moving? Stupid bunny

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Glad I bought a few 4/29 YOLOs Friday. Sounds like the Twitter plan is dead and Shanghai is reopening literally Monday. Should be nice open next week.

 

[Gigapress]

Here are the actual 2021 ASPs (Average Selling Price) as I have computed them along with my estimates for 2022 (in green).
You will note that the Model 3/Y ASP dropped from 50.4k in Q2 2021 to 49k in Q3 2021. This was due to the lower priced Model Y SR launching in China in Q3 2021.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, my estimates for 2022 are likely conservative. I have modest increases each quarter for the following reasons:
- The large price increases have not been worldwide . . . largely US.
- Price increases will take time as the backlog still has orders with lower pricing (e.g. my Model X arriving in July is 10k lower than pricing today).
- Tesla has been prioritizing Performance models and at some point the mix will start to shift more toward non-Performance models.

I would be pleased to see your higher ASPs closer to the actual results than mine.

View attachment 793653

A lot of the price increase and mix improvement effect should already be arriving in Q1, so Q1 financials will be the first good test of whether my estimation technique is accurate or if the model needs rework.

The big wave of price increases happened Oct 6th, 22nd and 23rd, and Nov 4th. One more $1k Model Y bump came Nov 11th before a 4-month lull.

Your experience with long delays for your X was most likely because of the refreshed X production ramp debacle. Tesla’s website indicated 3/Y/S premium variants were shipping in December with the new prices. It looks like they essentially put a moratorium on base model production at Fremont until they can’t continue to sell out of Performance and Plaid variants at those prices.

US delivery estimates as of Nov 4th:
3 SR+ Jun 2022 (7 month delay)
3 LR Dec 2021 (1 mo)
3 P Dec 2021 (1 mo)
Y LR May 2022 (6 mo)
Y P Dec 2021 (1 mo)
S LR Jun 2022 (7 mo)
S Plaid Dec 2021 (1 mo)
X LR Jun 2022 (7 mo)
X Plaid Aug 2022 (9 mo)

To qualify for the delivery time for any of the base models the buyer had to include premium sport wheels, adding $1.5k for 3&Y, $4.5k for S and $5.5k for X.

This HEAVY prioritization of premium variants is a win-win because almost 100% of the 2021 price increase effect would be felt by around Dec/Jan and these variants are $5k-$30k more expensive in the first place.

At some point Tesla may honor the lower prices for base model orders but at this rate that will be by summer at the earliest.

In all, if Tesla’s public delivery estimates were even remotely accurate, Q1 will be a blowout for revenue and net income.

US: Tesla Model 3/Y Prices Increase By $1,000

Tesla has just applied an additional $1,000 price increase on all Model 3 and Model Y versions in the U.S.

insideevs.com

 

[15Peter20]

Glad I bought a few 4/29 YOLOs Friday. Sounds like the Twitter plan is dead and Shanghai is reopening literally Monday. Should be nice open next week.

Where did you hear about Shanghai? That’s great news!

Edit: Tesla could restart output at Shanghai plant April 18

 

[Electroman]

A much better solution is to use a tower with hoists attached to it that can raise and lower weights as needed for energy storage. Believe it or not, I think this could have a very high round trip efficiency, certainly much higher than pumped water storage.

Something like this - Gravity Energy Storage Will Show Its Potential in 2021

If the problem you are trying to solve is loss of energy during long periods of storage, then the best solution is to store it as potential energy - a one ton mass raised to 1000 feet, never loses it energy over months and years. You could even push it up a hill over several thousands feet.

But here is the rub:

a) losses during storage: from converting electrical energy (generated by renewables) to potential energy, mainly through inefficiencies of electric motor and mechanical friction.
b) losses during retrieval: from generator and mechanical friction.