You could have also included a probability for success with high-volume production of dry-cathode 4680's.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon on the need for more battery cell production:
Elon Musk talks about scaling Tesla battery cell production | TED-2022 Vancouver (April 14, 2022)
Music.
Elon Musk talks about scaling Tesla battery cell production | TED-2022 Vancouver (April 14, 2022)
Elon: "Sooner is better, and scale is very important. It's not about Press releases, its about tonnage."
Music.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
This is a valid point, up to a point. That is, this is true in the moment while he is actually interacting. Evaluating what happened after the fact is actually something those on the spectrum do to create coping mechanisms for such situations.
From a perspective of analyzing and identifying problems, as well as potential solutions, he is very well equipped and capable. Asperger's folk can excel in this, despite their problems functioning "normally" in any given moment.
Building a social site in such a way as to encourage the silent majority to take part in order to damp the strong voice of the vocal minority may be tricky, but he is very likely the best person to select team members and assign tasks, while steering their efforts and monitoring the results. The goal should be to have a site that rewards those who oscillate around a happy medium of bias and discourage those who swing to the fringes toward more open-mindedness.
As an active participant in the mechanism (Twitter) already, the additional burden, once he has the ball rolling, likely won't have a significant impact on his other efforts.
The Model 3 "Production Hell" didn't slow down SpaceX,, Boring Co., and other projects, did it? He had good people assigned to those tasks with clearly defined goals to achieve.
Encouraging polite discourse and good manners is really something everyone should be doing more of. All Elon wants to do is make this possible by eliminating the existing lean toward a biased output on the site.
Any long-term predictions about virtually any company have about the same viability of trying to accurately predict the weather on any given day, 5 years from now. There are simply too many variables to account for. One thing decades of engineering has taught me is that your "output" or analysis is only as good as the assumptions made for your inputs. And even in relatively simple thermo-mechanical systems, minor details or variations can have a huge impact on your output. In the case of Tesla, we can't predict what the competition is doing, what governments will do to manipulate the playing field, what new technologies will be developed, what worldwide pandemics or wars will impact markets and strategic materials. Combine that with the new technologies, products and fields of endeavor that Tesla is just entering, or many enter in the future. Trying to predict the stock value 5 years from now is a fun exercise, and I enjoy the heck out of the discussion. And I'm extremely bullish on the future of Tesla and Elon's other endeavors. But hard predictions of the long-term future PT? Too many variables to have any confidence in the output.
One thing I've learned over the last decade or so-never bet against Elon. I remember watching programs about Tesla in the era of the original roadster and some of the future goals. My though was-yeah, right. This computer geek thinks he's going to start and run an auto company and compete with GM, Ford or Toyota. I expected a spectacular failure-and am very happy to have been proven spectacularly wrong. When I heard he was starting a "space company", something that has required the resources of a nation state-and that he's going to land re-usable rockets by setting them down tail first like a bad 1950's sci-fy movie-my first thought were similar-but far less confident after being proved wrong once. Now when I see how far Tesla has come with FSD (yes, we're not there yet-but so close), when he talks about herds of humanoid robots like iRobot-I listen. Same when looking at his plans for power generation and grid-level storage. Unlike most promoting these things that I look at as engineering-illiterate dreamers or scammers-when Elon says it-I listen.
To me, the interesting take-away from Elon's success isn't the technology or the businesses themselves. Elon is a great engineer-but again, he's only one guy, and he didn't do all these things himself. The interesting aspect is how does he identify the individuals, the skill sets, brings them all together and develops the business culture that inspires and drives his teams to do things no one thought possible. If we can learn from that and train a generation of Elon's, we have changed the world (and by "we", I don't mean us sitting here banging on our keyboards). And I think that aspect is something sadly missing. I see all kinds of youtube videos, articles and discussions of the technology, of the business, of Elon's "mean tweets". But as far as his leadership methods? Mostly crickets (at least from what I've found).
The enactment of a poison pill is illogical and perhaps illegal. The ultimate decision to sell the company is up to the shareholders. This move, by the board, to usurp the will of the shareholders, would no doubt evolve into a breach of duty lawsuit.
Yes, but I did not want to overwhelm folks with too many variables. Congrats on getting a fifth one. The sixth and seventh are a little harder to come up with. My list has 17 variables and probabilities.
There is no reason to believe that Elon's Twitter plans go much beyond making it more transparent. That's what he talked about at TED. He has never said he will try to solve all of social media's deeper ills. He just thinks he can make Twitter a lot better.
His plans seem pretty modest to me.
His plans seem pretty modest to me.
This is really informative (I respect your math!)
Somebody should think about applying this sort of thing to betting on professional sports, I bet they would make a killing!
1) Honestly what does an Edit button that does that accomplish? If you have a typo you can copy it now and delete it and then boom nothing. Then paste in an edited version and tweet it again. Edit on twitter is the most asked for thing that is not needed in any piece of software IMHO. Edit is in no way a difficult thing for twitter to do. An intern can likely do it in an afternoon.
2) Ok could lead to some improvements. I think the amount is overblown and boy the arguments that could go around. Making algorithm push down things like hate speech could lead to some pretty intense arguments.
Honestly the best things twitter can do is detect and disable bots unless they are registered bots with a legitimate purpose like for customer service. Detect and disable troll accounts, etc.
Neither do physical sciences. The essence of science is endless refinement and new discovery. Hence, for basic proof, just look at the dates of discovery in the growing periodic table of elements:
The use of First Principles does not have static results, but constant innovation and discovery. Thus it is with social sciences also. The principles are the same, the statistical precision of measurement and thus correlations are different.
There is one highly specific arena in Physics, for example, that has accuracy and precision quote similar to much social psychological research (Response modeling, preferences measurements, etc) and Geophysics (materials exploration, reserves assessment, etc). In both of these, one social science, the other 'hard' science, the correlations and processes are similar.
In specific reference for these two examples there is a specific point. In the -1970's-1980's when LISP was first being deployed the first commercial AI applications were expert systems.
maybe the first, was this:
PROSPECTOR computer-based expert system - SRI
SRI’s Artificial Intelligence Center developed one of the first computer-based expert systems to aid geologists in mineral exploration.
www.sri.com
This example, which i know because I worked on the latter one myself, shows that the approaches and scientific processes for social science and physical science are identical.
Not too many years later my entire team developing commercial and consumer financial decisions was composed of physicists, primarily geophysicist, but others also. In materials calculations fo parts reliability and Mean time before failure (MTBF) and others factors deal with quite analogous statistics with search for low probability, high impact events, such as turbine fan failures in, say, Turbojet engines. Guessing wrong on such issues can produce the De Havilland Comet, DC-10 cargo doors, B737MAX and B787 famous issues.
Sorry to belabor these points, but... the success of SpaceX and Tesla has been driven by an exceptional mastery of these issues, with an amazing ability to find ways to do seemingly impossible things. Much of the materials advances in battery, BMS, motor and manufacturing have been driven by innovation driven by a simple maxim; it si possible to do the 'impossible' by constantly coping with tiny statistical variations. A common word used is 'nano technology'. BY definition, in that world statistical probability reigns.
The is no such thing as certainty in physics. A. Einstein famously said "God does not play dice", but he soon admitted he was wrong.
To be mundane: The Gigapress could not have happened without uncertainly in science.
The Accountant
Active Member
I arrive at a 2025 share price of $3,815 on the auto & energy businesses alone.
Robotaxis & Optimus are like owning free options that would get the price above $3,815/shr.
That $3,815 share price would be about a $4.4T market cap.
I arrive at the $3,815 price as follows:
2025 Deliveries: 4.7m cars
2025 Global Auto market share: 5.6%
2025 GAAP Profit: $54.7B
2025 GAAP EPS: $47.68/Share
2025 Multiple: 80
EPS x Multiple = Share Price
$47.68 x 80 = $3,815
I admit that there needs to be some strong growth beyond 2025 to garner that 80 multiple. As long as Tesla has ample access to batteries, I believe they will grow strongly as they expand their product line and sales footprint.
And for the naysayers that can't believe a car company can carry a $4T valuation:
Tesla today makes on average $15k on each vehicle sold. I estimate by 2025, that will increase to about $17.5k.
Selling 4.7m vehicles at $17.5k gross profit . . . .just do the math.
The field you're referring to is statistics, a distinct field with endless applications. It uses math, but it's basic purpose is to figure out what do do when you don't really know why and how something happens. In Physics or human behavior, in all engineering failure probability assessment and wether forecasting. The specific issue, is 'heuristics' which is the way statisticians hide things for which they cannot find causes. Saying 'random' sounds unprofessional so we call it 'heuristic' instead.
As I point out in another post, this subject is the basis for much SpaceX and Tesla progress. Very, very few people have the ability Elon Musk has to imagine what to do about reducing uncertainty. From Zip2 to Falcon 9 and Gigapress, that approach makes the difference between breakthrough and mundane.
If TSLA reaches $4T in only a few years, the cultural relevance for the company and any employee (past or present) would be expansive worldwide...right?
The trickle down effects of that valuation...it's like a one-company wrecking crew for averting climate change.
The trickle down effects of that valuation...it's like a one-company wrecking crew for averting climate change.
A friend of mine, a geophysicist by training, does make a handsome living evaluating a given horse's expected financial value.
Another one used his fluid dynamics education to evaluate football (i.e. Soccer to the US) field strategies.
Both have ostensibly retired but they keep up with non-gambling gambling.
Statistics, properly used, is almost magical. The key is to know everything you can know and use statistics for the rest.
Assigning guesses without knowing all you can before you use statistics is why it gets a bum rap much of the time.
Forecasts are really fact-intensive, if they're to be useful.
In context, really good accountants, like, for example @The Accountant , is a closely analogous process but usually do not go as far in establishing things such as 'dependent variables' with a name like that.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
You only multiply the probabilities like this if the events are independent, but in this case they aren’t, so you’d need to estimate conditional probabilities and use Bayes’ Theorem. For instance, being 7 feet tall and playing pro basketball are both maybe 1 in a million odds but if you know that an individual is 7 ft then the NBA probability jumps to maybe 1 in 100.
FSD and Bot are like that because they have in common many of the same preconditions for success so if one is achieved then the likelihood of success for the other goes up a lot.
Additionally, all of Tesla’s tech and business advances are the result of one culture and one design process. Elon himself has a long track record of seemingly improbable entrepreneurial success going back to his Blastar arcade game from his adolescence in the 1980s. This raises the prior probability that his team will eventually accomplish a tough goal even without more information about the challenge.
Let’s reconsider your pharmaceutical and lithium mining examples. If the pharma company had a promising new drug in early development and had a string or f prior hits without any duds, Bayes’ rule would lead to a higher probability that the new one in development will succeed. Likewise, if the mining company had a track record of success we’d see less risk in the lithium clay project.
A discount rate is supposed to measure the opportunity cost of capital. Unless you’re buying TSLA with credit card debt, then 20% would only make sense if you have some other alternative investment you’re extremely confident will post 20% annual returns.
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jkirkwood001
Active Member
I agree with you completely about Elon accomplishing the "impossible" over and over again - well said.
With regards to how Elon manages to create and sustain such high performing teams, I also agree we don't know much... besides inuendo about how severe (but fair?) he is in reacting to staff dumb ideas (couldn't be more cruel than Jobs though!)
Eric Schmidt & Jonathan Rosenberg wrote the book (literally) about how Google works. I'm reading it now and actually a bit disappointed because it's more about management principles than the history of Google. I picked the wrong book for what I wanted to learn about Google, but the book is insightful IMO.
Dave Lee started down the path of asking about Elon's management processes, but Elon didn't like (or understand) what he was asking and we didn't learn anything:
So this critical insight about 'how Elon works' will stay publicly unknown for now. Hopefully one day there will be a bio where Elon looks back and shares his management principles and insights. I loved Ashlee Vance's Musk bio (after which I was convinced to buy TSLA in 2018), but it was more a history of than how Elon manages.
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THIS is why I tune my Tesla model very conservatively, because when I enter PE Ratios like 80 for the year 2025 I get huge numbers very similar to what The Accountant has above, and some part of me simply can't believe my stock will be worth THAT MUCH in the next 3-4 years.
Like I look at my accounts today and I still smile in amazement and disbelief, but if The Accountant is correct then I might have myself a heart attack due to sheer shock sometime in the next few years....
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Ok, you are wrong
(well, the dilution is kind of a thing- though a bit more complex since it's mostly diluting the shares the hostile takeover person owns.... as everyone ELSE gets the chance to buy new shares at a discount but that person does not- but I mean wrong on the vote part).
As a few folks have mentioned, twitters articles of incorporation include surprisingly broad powers for the board to fight takeover attempts [B}without[/B] any shareholder approval needed.... one of the reasons it's called out in the articles filed with the SEC is so a potential investor is aware the board has such powers available and can act without their (the shareholders) approval on these matters in certain ways and that can inform their decision to invest in that company or not.
As another example- the board can (without approval from anyone) issue a bunch of preferred shares, with whatever voting rights they specify, as a measure to block a takeover. (this is not unique to twitter and is sometimes called a Blank Check Preferred Stock defense) where they say issue X shares of this stock and each share gets 1000 votes instead of the 1 vote a common share gets.
The idea there's a political bias has been pretty thoroughly debunked- not just by the reddit CEO but lots of examples of folks of both leanings making censorship claims... and not just on this specific platform. It's not "political speech" that's banned- it's wildly out of bounds behavior that happens to include political speech.
They do have a fiduciary responsibility, but it'd be up to courts, usually after the fact, to determine if the measures they took, within the allowed bounds of their granted powers, were in the financial interests of shareholders or not.
It's not nearly as simple as "Elon offers more than the current price, so if they don't take it the shareholders got shafted"-- if it was that simple every takeover bid above current price would have to get approved and that's not remotely the case.
So any anti-takeover measure they take- from rejecting the offer, to poison pills, to the blank check thing I mention, and more- is a balancing act on their part regarding what they CAN legally do up front to block the takeover (which is a lot) versus what they believe they could successfully defend in court after the fact as not violating their fiduciary responsibilities.
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willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
In case anyone needs a reminder not to discount the potential of Tesla Energy...
New promotional video from Tesla showing off their Townsite Solar and Storage facility: Townsite Solar and Storage Facility
528,084 panels feeding a 360 MWh Tesla Megapack!
New promotional video from Tesla showing off their Townsite Solar and Storage facility: Townsite Solar and Storage Facility
528,084 panels feeding a 360 MWh Tesla Megapack!
Great points for me to ponder! Love it. I need to read more on Bayes and conditional probabilities. Thank you!
Bayes rule r/t TSLA and other examples, along with my investment training (books and experience). So many great examples from many sources in essence discuss betting on the successful jockey. Musk has many such examples in his background that helped me invest years ago.
I'm fine using 20% as a discount rate. I have no formal training, don't know how to properly have a discount rate. If I am off, it comes out in my favor. 20% is also the max premium I will pay for LEAPS.
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