What it involves is accepting the probabilities of the 4T in the future. I accept the possibilities but can't wrap my mind on timeline or chance of success. The issue for me would be trade entry now. I'm fine sitting tight, but am not talking up things to people like I used to.
Back in the day, it was MUCH EASIER to come up with a future market cap based upon 10% of world car sales at the profit points they suggested. Car sales were a known factor. Jump to electric not that much of a difference. So, I could do some back of napkin analysis over a few minutes. Things like FSD, robotaxi, robot man, these are just so far forward thinking it is tough for me, retail investor at home, to evaluate.
Frank SG and a handful of others like ARKK, spend considerable energies thinking through such things and offer priceless insight and guidance. To me, participating in such analysis discussion is one of the potential best benefits (largely unrealized here) of investors coming together and hashing things out. Like, the person who brought forth Bayes theorem and conditional probabilities might have helped me mature my own market analysis from a mathematical perspective, especially after I read on them. I am willing to try to work hard to understand. I am willing to have my ideas and thoughts bashed, want my investment sword sharpened on the finest grit everyone can offer.
