That was my math. 11 kW always got me a full charge during my free power window.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
When you think about it Tesla is much more likely to make a billion dollar profit from subscriptions+sales of FSD long before they do from robotaxis.
Actually they already have. So let me rephrase that.
Tesla is much more likely to make a $100 billion profit from subscriptions+sales of FSD long before the do from robotaxis.
I'm sure those with excel model set-ups can tell us exactly what 50% growth and a 25-50% take on $200/month will do for profits.
FSD will work 'good enough' for an increasingly higher percentage to pay per month long before it's ready for robotaxis.
I predict an accumulated FSD profit of $100 billion 2030 at the latest. Possibly in 2028 already.
That's my feeling. I think that reaching for "robotaxi" is the wrong standard. It's going to make lots of money long before then without all the crap associated with trying to run a robotaxi fleet which, I believe, is going to be a really crappy business. As much as people discredit Waymo they are improving and in some ways ahead of Tesla. The money taxi's is and always has been dense metro regions. Be it horse carriages to ICE to rideshare services. Waymo is going to be rolled out across all the metro areas in the US before Tesla has robotaxis. Will they be cars you want in your driveway? probably not. I don't really care if it is a taxi. I care that it gets from A to B at the lowest possible cost.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I guess Tesla has it wrong, EV's are not the future.
www.drive.com.au
Electrification not the answer: Aston Martin
Aston Martin’s design boss also believes that internal combustion engines can become zero-emission power units
www.drive.com.au
Jeff Bezos’ Drone Dreams Hit by Crashes and Safety Concerns
A serious crash in June prompted federal regulators to question the drone’s airworthiness because multiple safety features failed and the machine careened out of control.
www.bloomberg.com
Not FSD, but it’s a technological challenge nevertheless. And, still far away.
I Honestly don’t think it makes a bit of difference either as a shareholder or as a future buyer.
It’s 200. Roughly 0.03% of the purchase price of the car. No clue what it cost for them to make, but they just dropped the price and Musk say they were including more adaptors. So likely not a big profit for sales.
It’s a blip nobody will think of in a year.
Concerning revenue streams, are there any figures on what Tesla currently makes from the Supercharger stations and forecasts for the future? Related question, what is the likelihood that Tesla would license or sell their connector technology and use of their charging systems to other manufacturers? The Tesla Supercharger infrastructure as good as it is, is still expanding, and the potential of that additional revenue and brand exposure to owners of other EV customers only helps Tesla. Yes, I know that Tesla has discussed (and has, in Europe) opened their charging stations to other makes. It makes it simpler for both Tesla and buyers of other vehicles, if they have the Tesla plug, rather than CCS. Companies like EVGo, Chargepoint and Electrify America are expanding rapidly-why not beat them to the punch to be the "Exon of Charging Stations" (or substitute brand).
Let me rephrase the thought process. Originally it seemed as if Tesla built the Supercharging infrastructure was built as a "necessary evil" to support the sales of their EVs. And given that in the early years, Supercharging was free, it certainly was a significant expense for the company, rather than a revenue stream. That is changing now that users are charged for their use, but my impression is that the Superchargers are looked at more as a support system for their cars, than as a viable independent business model. What if that evolves and SCs and Tesla plugs become the default charging standard and charging station, and a large revenue stream in their own right? Particularly in line with what we saw concerning the bid price from other suppliers vs Tesla for charger installation, and the inference that Tesla's charger cost is much lower than the competition. (as someone that owns CHPT as well as TSLA, I have mixed feelings about this...). Or perhaps that's already in the works and I'm behind the times.
Let me rephrase the thought process. Originally it seemed as if Tesla built the Supercharging infrastructure was built as a "necessary evil" to support the sales of their EVs. And given that in the early years, Supercharging was free, it certainly was a significant expense for the company, rather than a revenue stream. That is changing now that users are charged for their use, but my impression is that the Superchargers are looked at more as a support system for their cars, than as a viable independent business model. What if that evolves and SCs and Tesla plugs become the default charging standard and charging station, and a large revenue stream in their own right? Particularly in line with what we saw concerning the bid price from other suppliers vs Tesla for charger installation, and the inference that Tesla's charger cost is much lower than the competition. (as someone that owns CHPT as well as TSLA, I have mixed feelings about this...). Or perhaps that's already in the works and I'm behind the times.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Is it Monday yet? Is the plug conversion ending soon?
Mod: Oh, yes.
Mod: Oh, yes.
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Elon extended interview at Giga Texas.
1) 100 GwH battery production at Giga Texas in 2 years.
2) Long term Tesla will do 30 TwH of batteries. - 10% of 300 TwH needed to transition.
3) Water will be abundant as we can use renewable energy to extract water from sea water.
4) FSD Pump - Built custom Auto labeller that extrapolates labelling. Increase in efficiency with human labelling. Confident will solve it this year. 100k ppl in Beta.
5) Tesla growing faster than my own predictions.
6) Bot - will do many tasks in your home. Bigger than Car. Will build lot of safety features. Need regulatory body to monitor bots. You will have buddy robot- robot in each home in 15 20 years down the lane. First model in 2 years. Customers could be able to buy a bot in 10 years. Expensive initially - maybe equal to cost of car. Price drops later.
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I do keep up. It is extremely unlikely that Tesla will keep a 70% share of all BEV sales in the future. Tesla is targeting 20 million in worldwide sales in 2030. If total vehicle sales remains steady at around 75 million per year and most worldwide sales are BEV's that puts Tesla well below 50%.
Or to put it another way, if Tesla still has 70% of the BEV market it means we still sold about 46 million ICE vehicles and only 29 million BEV's. Tesla makes 20 million while the rest of the brands made only 9 million. That means the mission to convert to electric has failed.
I don't argue that there is a bit of extra resistance with the extra plug and adapter. But we weren't talking about fleets. We were just talking about what someone puts in the garage. I don't have any reason to believe the resistance will make a noticeable difference in electricity cost or charging speed for an individual.
A 40 amp charger is plenty for most users and it's a practical speed for a typical 14-50 circuit. There are plenty of high quality 40 amp J1772 wall chargers out there with a 14-50 plug.
But as I said from the beginning, everyone's needs are different. You just have to consider the tradeoffs of different decisions.
Please include a summary with any Bloomberg link. Thanks.Jeff Bezos’ Drone Dreams Hit by Crashes and Safety Concerns
A serious crash in June prompted federal regulators to question the drone’s airworthiness because multiple safety features failed and the machine careened out of control.
Not FSD, but it’s a technological challenge nevertheless. And, still far away.
Maybe. But where was I wrong?
Even if I'm off by 50%, it's still a nice chunk of change. And I only did the math for 2023. Removing the portable charger will will mean extra profits every year from now on.
An auto company loves it when they can knock a nickel off the cost of the vehicle. Any way you figure, this knocks out a whole lot of nickels!
Except that Kroger is doing drone delivery in the Cincinnati area alreadyJeff Bezos’ Drone Dreams Hit by Crashes and Safety Concerns
A serious crash in June prompted federal regulators to question the drone’s airworthiness because multiple safety features failed and the machine careened out of control.
Not FSD, but it’s a technological challenge nevertheless. And, still far away.
It is a business like most other businesses, with good and bad parts.
The human interface software part is an app, which isn't difficult.
Fleet scheduling is probably a neural net like auto-bidder.
FSD itself is hardware / software.
Having a fleet, and charging that fleet isn't difficult.
Insurance isn't difficult.
Cleaning is a difficult challenge.
There will need to be a call centre and support.
At times dealing with the public can be challenging because a small portion of the public can be difficult to deal with. Those customers are not worth the hassle, the best approach is ban them from the service. Most of the other customers will book a trip via an app, not make a mess and never complain.
Yes, the business might trend overtime to lower margins, that is where a low cost fleet is all important.
Any competition that loses money n a subsidised model may gain market-share, but will not last.
It isn't overly difficult for Tesla to achieve the largest fleet, which means the best service.
It is now impossible to retain any Tesla at the end of a lease, those off-lease cars are one good way of build a fleet at lower cost.
We also need to wait and see what the purpose built Robotaxi looks like. I'm sure Tesla has a good idea of the economics.
I expect car sales to drop significantly from 75 million per year by 2030:
- BEVs lasting 3-4x longer than ICE equivalents.
- The transition to renewables leads to improved public transit and increased usage.
- Autonomous vehicles decrease purchases considerably. Many 2 vehicle households drop to 1 vehicle and many others don’t ever even bother to own.
- Autonomous vehicles and better collision avoidance safety features result in far fewer collisions thereby increasing the lifespan of vehicles.
- We’ve proven that working from home is a viable alternative to committing to the office 5 days a week.
- If BEVs are still production constrained, by then, very few will be willing to buy a new ICEv so will be holding out for a BEV.
While not my expectation, I would not be surprised if Tesla is selling 50 to 70% of vehicles outside of Asia in 2030.
100k beta testers, isn't this almost all the take rate for FSD? If there are 1m teslas sold in the U.S, we are already at 10% of the fleet. Have we even moved 1m Teslas in the US with HW 3?
So Elon in the interview is thinking in term of time dollars. He said Tesla makes 300M/day, 2B a week
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
$300 million? Every single day?
Dang! I didn't even make that much on the best TSLA day of 2021!
MartinAustin
Active Member
It takes two entities to see garbage like that on your CNBC app. Lora Kolodny is writing it... and CNBC are publishing it and standing by it.
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