Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Listened to the interview again and although there is some debate I'm happy to hear Tesla will aim to now produce 30 Twh of batteries or 10% of the 300 Twh Elon believes the world will need to produce annually around 2030. This is a 10x increase from the original 2030 goal and in line with Elon's recent statements regarding massive expansion.

Solving the money problem video scroll to about 2:15 to see Steven's discussion on the topic.

This is about the same as Battery Day.

300 TWh is for total cumulative production of batteries to eliminate coal/oil/gas, whereas 3 TWh from battery day was referring to annual production.

If Tesla gets to 3 TWh by 2030 as planned and held steady for 10 years they’d make 10% of the total.

For what it’s worth, I think Tesla will make a lot more than 10% of the total. They already are more than 10% of the world battery market once the new 4680 lines have ramped next year.

 

[Nocturnal]

30k from Berlin this year seems super low. That's just going to offset Shanghai's losses.

 

[Bobfitz1]

At this point I think it's inevitable Tesla gets into mining. I know a lot of investors do not want them to, but the mining industry isn't ramping with the EV and green energy industry and someone will need to step up and fill the lag. My gut tells me Tesla will simply vertically integrate further into mining and show the world new better & faster ways to mine.

Agree. At least for assuring adequate supplies of lithium, Tesla's materials science and engineering chops could have good chances of finding the best way(s) to separate lithium from lithium brines and taking them to scale. Brines represent 66% of global lithium resources and I believe the largest portion of current world production comes from brines as opposed to hard rock mining.

Once the right separation technology has been found and proven, greatly expanding lithium supplies from brines I believe will be much faster than doing the same with hard rock mining.

 

[henchman24]

30k from Berlin this year seems super low. That's just going to offset Shanghai's losses.

Seems like a weird shot in the dark. The same article says they are targeting 5-10k per week by the end of the year. Just as a stretch, say they hit 10k per week on Dec 11... they could theoretically hit 30k to end the year (I'm ignoring holiday realities to make a point).

 

[Prunesquallor]

How to make friends and influence people.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

With enough energy (and perhaps some fancy work with materials science), we can probably do a lot of recycling of raw materials of even things that "aren't recyclable" in the same way that fuel refineries work - just crank up the heat until everything vaporizes and then progressively cool it and pull off the different materials as they recondense. Of course we're talking about some absolutely hilariously high energy usage, but hey, if we've got it, why not?

That process doesn't use any energy, it actually produces energy. Plasma gasification can take the ~5 of battery material we don't recycle at turn it into electricity, hydrogen, and slag that gets mixed into road asphalt.

Plasma gasification - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[CLK350]

Tesla, SpaceX changing status to 501c.3 (nonprofit)? One could argue they have achieved more useful results than a lot charities, religious ones especially.

At the 1:02:40 mark of his TED interview part of his response about his wealth

/s tho an interesting angle to consider re the devotion/ motivation of his employees and maybe some investors/ customers - Wall Street types and so many wealthy folks won't/ can't understand

 

[dgodfrey]

An oscillating non-linear dynamical system—such as the climate system—will exhibit ’bizarre’ transients during a phase change, aka Hopf bifurcation, between one stable oscillatory regime and another.

Observations such as yours and the recent simultaneous Arctic and Antarctic extreme heat events are quite worrisome.

Karen? Is that you?

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's like the market this morning can't decide if it wants to be up or down....


But now, I think it's going down.

Nailed it! (Called the bottom within 1 min again). You are now the leading contrarian indicator...

Cheers!

 

[UltradoomY]

30k from Berlin this year seems super low. That's just going to offset Shanghai's losses.

Note: This info comes from a news outlet in Germany... not Tesla.

This is not material information from Tesla and thus is more likely than not to be false.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Karen? Is that you?

She's too busy deconstructing RU/UKR war on Twitter.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

In Defense of Elon Musk's Managerial Excellence
The Tesla CEO’s track record proves he’s a pre-eminent builder of businesses and maximizer of shareholder value.
...
Elon Musk is a pretty good business manager. In fact, the chief executive officer of the world's most valuable automaker has no equal.
...
Too often, Elon Musk makes the news for the wrong reasons, giving his detractors a steady stream of fodder to use against someone they say is little more than a self-absorbed corporate carnival barker. Musk’s success as a pre-eminent maximizer of shareholder value proves otherwise.

In Defense of Elon Musk's Managerial Excellence

The Tesla CEO’s track record proves he’s a pre-eminent builder of businesses and maximizer of shareholder value.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Don TLR]

The Tesla Decade according to Worm Capital,, seems they think Tesla investors will make lots of money

“Tesla has been our largest position for 4+ years.
• We have long believed that Tesla was destined to be one of the largest companies in the world— based on free cash flow and net income.”

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60c24f91684d920cb6097d4e/t/625affb36a000b41381f8455/1650130893591/The+Tesla+Decade+-+Worm+Capital+-+4-18-2022.pdf

 

[Don TLR]

The Tesla Decade according to Worm Capital,, seems they think Tesla investors will make lots of money

“Tesla has been our largest position for 4+ years.
• We have long believed that Tesla was destined to be one of the largest companies in the world— based on free cash flow and net income.”

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60c24f91684d920cb6097d4e/t/625affb36a000b41381f8455/1650130893591/The+Tesla+Decade+-+Worm+Capital+-+4-18-2022.pdf

 

[betstarship]

It's like the market this morning can't decide if it wants to be up or down....


But now, I think it's going down.

Span back the time horizon to 5 years and its up and to the right

 

[The Accountant]

The Tesla Decade according to Worm Capital,, seems they think Tesla investors will make lots of money

“Tesla has been our largest position for 4+ years.
• We have long believed that Tesla was destined to be one of the largest companies in the world— based on free cash flow and net income.”

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60c24f91684d920cb6097d4e/t/625affb36a000b41381f8455/1650130893591/The+Tesla+Decade+-+Worm+Capital+-+4-18-2022.pdf

This is probably the best presentation I have seen on Tesla for the average investor to understand.
I need to save this presentation for future use . . . .
. . . . for when someone comes onto this forum and asks, "does anyone have materials I can send to my doubting friend (or uncle, cousin, work colleague)?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I agree with your point, but your math is off. In 2 minutes of pumping gas, you will add 420 theoretical miles to the Aston, not 42. (If the Aston had a 20-gallon tank).

The more important point is that it only takes a few seconds to plug in an EV at home every night, and you start each day with a full "tank".

Wow, I really screwed that up! Too late to edit too and admit my epic fail. I blame being on the Internet too late / early.

 

[woodisgood]

Alex Potter (Piper) has lowered PT to 1260 from 1350 citing lower Shanghai output.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Alex Potter (Piper) has lowered PT to 1260 from 1350 citing lower Shanghai output.

Classic. Over what time frame - 3 months? Ridiculous (which I know was your point).

 

[dhanson865]

The Tesla Decade according to Worm Capital,, seems they think Tesla investors will make lots of money

“Tesla has been our largest position for 4+ years.
• We have long believed that Tesla was destined to be one of the largest companies in the world— based on free cash flow and net income.”

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60c24f91684d920cb6097d4e/t/625affb36a000b41381f8455/1650130893591/The+Tesla+Decade+-+Worm+Capital+-+4-18-2022.pdf

The money shot out of this PDF. They project production crossover in 2023/2024 (two crossovers one for Ford, one for GM).