I hope Tesla report extremely good margin with rising ASP, at some point Tesla main stream vehicles line up need to come down in pricing to sub 50 K, If margin is very good now ,later decent margin with substantial higher volume will keep profitability stable.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ZachF
Active Member
think about what? earnings report?
From P&D...
Tesla will post its financial results for the first quarter of 2022 after market close on Wednesday, April 20, 2022. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q1 2022 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.
What: Date of Tesla Q1 2022 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Time: 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Q1 2022 Update: http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Here was TE’s Q1 analysis.
TE might be assuming lower operating expenses than others, but I’m not spotting what’s causing the difference. (Edit: Looks like @The Accountant did)
For what it’s worth, I think none of the estimates in that list are even close. Because of the strong evidence of Plaid and Performance variants being prioritized, my personal 95% confidence interval for non-GAAP EPS is $3.20-$4.10.
Sounds crazy? Well that low-end $3.20 estimate simply is based on taking @The Accountant ’s estimate but modeling for a $2k increase in ASP. Detailed math in the short term projections thread.
Delivery volume is so high now that a $3k boost to gross profit per car pushes quarterly EPS up almost $1.
TE might be assuming lower operating expenses than others, but I’m not spotting what’s causing the difference. (Edit: Looks like @The Accountant did)
For what it’s worth, I think none of the estimates in that list are even close. Because of the strong evidence of Plaid and Performance variants being prioritized, my personal 95% confidence interval for non-GAAP EPS is $3.20-$4.10.
Sounds crazy? Well that low-end $3.20 estimate simply is based on taking @The Accountant ’s estimate but modeling for a $2k increase in ASP. Detailed math in the short term projections thread.
Delivery volume is so high now that a $3k boost to gross profit per car pushes quarterly EPS up almost $1.
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The Accountant
Active Member
The Tesla Economist focuses more on GAAP EPS vs Non-GAAP EPS.
His GAAP EPS is $2.63 vs my $2.50 . . . .not that far off.
I think his non-GAAP EPS does not have the correct Stock Based Compensation number.
If I was to fix that number for him, he would be at $2.96 non-GAAP - so a little closer.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think margins are beyond what @The Accountant is modeling. Not that I've done ANY math or looked closely at anyone's model.
Demand has pulled all the most expensive variants forward. I doubt forecasters have compensated for this fully.
With any luck Netflix pulls QQQ and TSLA down at the open. Gonna sell 100 shares to raise cash and buy a Jun2024 $1500c with some of the proceeds. Hopefully a small amount of the proceeds.
Happy Earnings Day Eve to all!
Demand has pulled all the most expensive variants forward. I doubt forecasters have compensated for this fully.
With any luck Netflix pulls QQQ and TSLA down at the open. Gonna sell 100 shares to raise cash and buy a Jun2024 $1500c with some of the proceeds. Hopefully a small amount of the proceeds.
Happy Earnings Day Eve to all!
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
All the forecasters I’ve seen are not accounting for any subtantial ASP increase in Q1 over Q4.
I foresee a blowout report similar to Q3 2018 when high model 3 pent up demand led to selling mostly premium variants and smashing earnings estimates.
I doubt they moved up the reporting date to 4/20 by accident!
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BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
I think you might be right, my ModelY ordered in Oct '21 has still not been created (No VIN, see sig for details) but I am sure that plenty of ModelY performance and FSD models have been delivered.
Wow just saw the extremely anti-Tesla 1-800-StopFSD TV commercial showing YouTube vids of supposed FSD mishaps. Man that is the most extreme FUD I've seen and during Big Bang Theory as that!
Scary...
Scary...
I pulled the latest data from Washington state to calculate current ASP.
It's only one state, and March numbers are still not available, but it might help someone with their models.
It's only one state, and March numbers are still not available, but it might help someone with their models.
| ASP | Model | Count | Month |
54232.82 | Model Y | 262 | Jan-21 |
48316.74 | Model 3 | 43 | Jan-21 |
87980 | Model X | 2 | Jan-21 |
53226.7 | Model Y | 347 | Feb-21 |
46220.24 | Model 3 | 41 | Feb-21 |
55264.38 | Model Y | 1004 | Mar-21 |
47722.22 | Model 3 | 658 | Mar-21 |
56786.59 | Model Y | 261 | Apr-21 |
47099.02 | Model 3 | 41 | Apr-21 |
56344.03 | Model Y | 124 | May-21 |
46326.49 | Model 3 | 37 | May-21 |
59545.87 | Model Y | 1243 | Jun-21 |
50109.68 | Model 3 | 852 | Jun-21 |
118921.5 | Model S | 73 | Jun-21 |
55805.83 | Model Y | 216 | Jul-21 |
46675.53 | Model 3 | 152 | Jul-21 |
104513.7 | Model S | 38 | Jul-21 |
57344.7 | Model Y | 532 | Aug-21 |
49202.21 | Model 3 | 321 | Aug-21 |
123575.7 | Model S | 49 | Aug-21 |
59816.1 | Model Y | 886 | Sep-21 |
51364.4 | Model 3 | 843 | Sep-21 |
120826.1 | Model S | 101 | Sep-21 |
59092.65 | Model Y | 603 | Oct-21 |
48022.21 | Model 3 | 281 | Oct-21 |
127176.4 | Model S | 22 | Oct-21 |
59649.48 | Model Y | 582 | Nov-21 |
50523.87 | Model 3 | 499 | Nov-21 |
104970.3 | Model S | 81 | Nov-21 |
53963.06 | Model 3 | 689 | Dec-21 |
64912.19 | Model Y | 635 | Dec-21 |
116401.4 | Model S | 97 | Dec-21 |
111495.8 | Model X | 19 | Dec-21 |
60282.67 | Model Y | 577 | Jan-22 |
53311.99 | Model 3 | 186 | Jan-22 |
105378.2 | Model S | 55 | Jan-22 |
121078.2 | Model X | 17 | Jan-22 |
59302.5 | Model Y | 152 | Feb-22 |
52225.23 | Model 3 | 88 | Feb-22 |
102863.3 | Model S | 15 | Feb-22 |
132205 | Model X | 10 | Feb-22 |
Its sponsored by a California billionaire who has announced that he's running for Senate (Democrat primary) and he has a one-issue campaign: stop FSD.
btw: his company also develops SW which he sells to auto manufacturers.
I say stop that SD billionaire! I only own the stock but I would be willing to help fund something to stop this bastard from airing this crap.
Let him waste his money.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Very helpful! Where did you find this? I didn’t know Washington sales and price data was available.
Krugerrand
Meow
I saw it too tonight. Gali and Rob M are going to be famous TV personalities now.
There is a thread on this that shows the commercial... somebody please tell me the vids are set up
teslamotorsclub.com
855-STOP-FSD
Anyone else see the smear campaign bashing Tesla’s FSD on TV? Of course they weeded out the worse YouTube videos they could find but someone has a real hard on to pay a tv station (KCBS in SoCal) to run this commercial.
teslamotorsclub.com
Presumably this bozo:
He wants to destroy Elon Musk. He could end up endangering the Dems’ Senate plans.
Dan O’Dowd is running for office squarely as a means of bludgeoning the Tesla CEO. Could he screw up things for the incumbent?
www.politico.com
It really is that feeling. 8 times a year if you count P&D.
Mods know if you’ve been bad or good
So be good for goodness sake!
So be good for goodness sake!
There was an article that said he’s only running so he can get air time to run these ads at a reduced rate. He has no political aspiration… so this is very scummy.
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