Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Very helpful! Where did you find this? I didn’t know Washington sales and price data was available.

Available at Vehicle Registration Transactions by Department of Licensing | Data.WA | State of Washington

Washington State sales are probably a pretty good proxy for all US sales, probably better than one could do by making an educated guess based upon price hikes, dates, estimated take rates of various features, etc.

Of course, this wouldn't include any FSD revenue from people trying to avoid paying registration $$ by buying FSD after the sale. But I have a feeling most people don't strategize too much to save a few bucks.

 

[Mike Smith]

Let him waste his money.

I doubt he's working alone - this is probably fully funded by the forces of evil. They chose a billionaire among themselves to be the front man so that it would be plausible that he's acting alone.

 

[SO16]

I doubt he's working alone - this is probably fully funded by the forces of evil. They chose a billionaire among themselves to be the front man so that it would be plausible that he's acting alone.

Perhaps people for FSD should call the number and say how they disagree with the ad and how misleading it is.

 

[wipster]

Mods know if you’ve been bad or good
So be good for goodness sake!

Hmm, that sounds like lyrics from a song which of course we all know are forbidden. Mod, mod thyself!

/s

 

[Gigapress]

The WA state sales data in chart format and tabular format sorted by model.

Findings
1) For Q2, Q3 and Q4, the third month of each had the highest prices, suggesting that March too will have had higher prices than Jan & Feb.

2) 3/Y/X prices have clearly been creeping up over time. No idea why S is trending downwards.

3) WA prices have been about $10k higher than the overall Tesla average, suggesting that WA buyers have been tending to buy premium variants at a higher rate than average. This would reduce any effect of premium variant prioritization because WA was buying more in the first place.

4) Overall, the trend suggests Q1 ASP will have risen around $3k above Q4 ASP.

Spoiler: Table

ASP	Model	Count	Month
48,316.74	Model 3	43.00	Jan-21
46,220.24	Model 3	41.00	Feb-21
47,722.22	Model 3	658.00	Mar-21
47,099.02	Model 3	41.00	Apr-21
46,326.49	Model 3	37.00	May-21
50,109.68	Model 3	852.00	Jun-21
46,675.53	Model 3	152.00	Jul-21
49,202.21	Model 3	321.00	Aug-21
51,364.40	Model 3	843.00	Sep-21
48,022.21	Model 3	281.00	Oct-21
50,523.87	Model 3	499.00	Nov-21
53,963.06	Model 3	689.00	Dec-21
53,311.99	Model 3	186.00	Jan-22
52,225.23	Model 3	88.00	Feb-22
118,921.50	Model S	73.00	Jun-21
104,513.70	Model S	38.00	Jul-21
123,575.70	Model S	49.00	Aug-21
120,826.10	Model S	101.00	Sep-21
127,176.40	Model S	22.00	Oct-21
104,970.30	Model S	81.00	Nov-21
116,401.40	Model S	97.00	Dec-21
105,378.20	Model S	55.00	Jan-22
102,863.30	Model S	15.00	Feb-22
87,980.00	Model X	2.00	Jan-21
111,495.80	Model X	19.00	Dec-21
121,078.20	Model X	17.00	Jan-22
132,205.00	Model X	10.00	Feb-22
54,232.82	Model Y	262.00	Jan-21
53,226.70	Model Y	347.00	Feb-21
55,264.38	Model Y	1,004.00	Mar-21
56,786.59	Model Y	261.00	Apr-21
56,344.03	Model Y	124.00	May-21
59,545.87	Model Y	1,243.00	Jun-21
55,805.83	Model Y	216.00	Jul-21
57,344.70	Model Y	532.00	Aug-21
59,816.10	Model Y	886.00	Sep-21
59,092.65	Model Y	603.00	Oct-21
59,649.48	Model Y	582.00	Nov-21
64,912.19	Model Y	635.00	Dec-21
60,282.67	Model Y	577.00	Jan-22
59,302.50	Model Y	152.00	Feb-22

 

[EV forever]

I say stop that SD billionaire! I only own the stock but I would be willing to help fund something to stop this bastard from airing this crap.

Rob Maurer was asking for any one with legal knowledge to let him know if there is a way from blocking them from using his video. They did not ask for permission, so unsure if they can use his YouTube videos in this way.

 

[thesmokingman]

Rob Maurer was asking for any one with legal knowledge to let him know if there is a way from blocking them from using his video. They did not ask for permission, so unsure if they can use his YouTube videos in this way.

What is a DMCA Takedown?

A DMCA takedown is a legal mechanism used by copyright holders to request the removal of infringing content from websites and online platforms.

www.dmca.com

Btw, every agency, news or tv will have a DMCA agent to handle infringements and takedowns.

 

[Discoducky]

Here was TE’s Q1 analysis.

Spoiler: TE stuff

View attachment 795578View attachment 795579
TE might be assuming lower operating expenses than others, but I’m not spotting what’s causing the difference. (Edit: Looks like @The Accountant did)

For what it’s worth, I think none of the estimates in that list are even close. Because of the strong evidence of Plaid and Performance variants being prioritized, my personal 95% confidence interval for non-GAAP EPS is $3.20-$4.10.

Sounds crazy? Well that low-end $3.20 estimate simply is based on taking @The Accountant ’s estimate but modeling for a $2k increase in ASP. Detailed math in the short term projections thread.

Delivery volume is so high now that a $3k boost to gross profit per car pushes quarterly EPS up almost $1.

If you're estimates are even within bounds of right TSLA will look like the inverse of this tomorrow.

And yes, that big red candle is one minute after the off dropped...

 

[15Peter20]

Lolz

Mercedes Has a Massive New Weapon to One Up Tesla - TheStreet

German automaker Mercedes-Benz is building a veritable arsenal to challenge Tesla's leadership in high-end electric vehicles.

www.thestreet.com

They tried to recruit me to be part of this.

Put it this way: HODL!

 

[Robertj]

On the 21st October prior to earnings release we were at $ 894 , that was a Thursday i think

On the following Monday we were at $904 ,Tuesday we climbed to $1,024 , with a one day gain of over $100

Will we gain over $ 100 over the next week with blowout earnings ?

Topped at $1,200 5th November when someone sold shares

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’ve thought about this and have difficulty imagining the meta-factory. Does it include robots that built robots? Robots that build assembly lines? Robots that build Giga presses? Does Tesla contract out for basic foundation and building construction?

You mean like representing a 4th dimensional hypercube (a.k.a. tesseract) by projecting it into 3 dimensions? That kind of difficulty? Lol, I don't think its quite that hard!

Luckily we don't have to the hard work, Elon will do it for us (ie: Master Plan part 3). Remember, Elon's first language is math and physics. To him, geometric growth is how he goes about 'bending the curve': Snap, crackle, pop (Physics)

Has anything like a factory factory ever been done before?

Obviously, Kuka robots are built in a factory. So this would be the Tesla equivalent of building a factory to make the tooling required to build Kuka robot manufacturing lines. It might help to think along the lines, given a 'bill of materials' requirement, how to create that most efficiently.

A look behind the scenes: how a KUKA robot is built​

The main difference is then the product being built and the intended use / customer. The first such factory may already exist in Prüm, Germany at the new Tesla Automation (formerly Grohmann Engineering) facility. People are still speculating as to its purpose:

Humpidumpi2 on Twitter: "Tesla Automation Prüm, Germany: new Parts for car, battery, SuC, Teslabots (?) next to the newly built extension , ready to be shipped" | Twitter video (Feb 13, 2022)​

​

Tesla Factory in Prüm, Germany Is Already Completed | Tesmanian images (Feb 14, 2022)​

Personally, I think this is the 'proof-of-concept' plant, and Tesla will build at least 2 more: one in China, and one in Austin, TX. But obviously, Tesla can scale with demand. Remember this new mantra:

"The Product is the Factory"​

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

What sort of year by year ramp up of battery production do you envision hitting 300 TWh cumulative by 2040?

I've previously (over several years now since Battery Day) published a few possible production goal tables. I'll link here to my most recent one (made after the TED2022 interview), and the content myself to wait for "Master Plan Part 3":

Artful Dodger Post #334,587 (Mon, Apr 18, 2022)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

They might have to buy IDRA from LK to get there.

Tesla didn't need to buy Panasonic....

Did you see Jordan Giesige's latest "Cyber Rodeo" video? He shows images and discusses how Tesla is already modifying their Gigapresses to increase output by improving the thermal control with heat exchangers and an insulated stainless steel bottle "heat sink". Of course, heat transfer from the aluminum castings is The Limiting Factor.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

You mean like representing a 4th dimensional hypercube (a.k.a. tesseract) by projecting it into 3 dimensions? That kind of difficulty? Lol, I don't think its quite that hard!

View attachment 795627​

Luckily we don't have to the hard work, Elon will do it for us (ie: Master Plan part 3). Remember, Elon's first language is math and physics. To him, geometric growth is how he goes about 'bending the curve': Snap, crackle, pop (Physics)



Obviously, Kuka robots are built in a factory. So this would be the Tesla equivalent of building a factory to make the tooling required to build Kuka robot manufacturing lines. It might help to think along the lines, given a 'bill of materials' requirement, how to create that most efficiently.

A look behind the scenes: how a KUKA robot is built​

The main difference is then the product being built and the intended use / customer. The first such factory may already exist in Prüm, Germany at the new Tesla Automation (formerly Grohmann Engineering) facility. People are still speculating as to its purpose:

Humpidumpi2 on Twitter: "Tesla Automation Prüm, Germany: new Parts for car, battery, SuC, Teslabots (?) next to the newly built extension , ready to be shipped" | Twitter video (Feb 13, 2022)​

​

Tesla Factory in Prüm, Germany Is Already Completed | Tesmanian images (Feb 14, 2022)​

Personally, I think this is the 'proof-of-concept' plant, and Tesla will build at least 2 more: one in China, and one in Austin, TX. But obviously, Tesla can scale with demand. Remember this new mantra:

"The Product is the Factory"​

Cheers!

Raises a thought...

Between big casting machines and existing robots to do various CNC actions, and existing know-how to make motors and such... and building Optimus...

They probably have sufficient know-how to build their own KUKA equivalent bots, if they wanted to. Is there a point where it makes sense to do so, or will the growth rate always be low enough that building a factory-factory (robot factory) is more of a cost than a savings vs just buying them from KUKA etc?

 

[2daMoon]

Raises a thought...

Between big casting machines and existing robots to do various CNC actions, and existing know-how to make motors and such... and building Optimus...

They probably have sufficient know-how to build their own KUKA equivalent bots, if they wanted to. Is there a point where it makes sense to do so, or will the growth rate always be low enough that building a factory-factory (robot factory) is more of a cost than a savings vs just buying them from KUKA etc?

It would only make sense if they could improve upon them, or, if there were a significant enough problem sourcing them for building factories.

So far, so good. So, unlikely I'd say.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Raises a thought...

Between big casting machines and existing robots to do various CNC actions, and existing know-how to make motors and such... and building Optimus...

They probably have sufficient know-how to build their own KUKA equivalent bots, if they wanted to. Is there a point where it makes sense to do so, or will the growth rate always be low enough that building a factory-factory (robot factory) is more of a cost than a savings vs just buying them from KUKA etc?

I don't know enough about KUKA robots to judge if they are ripe for disruption. I'll leave that to someone with 1st-hand knowledge of the industry. My instinct is as long as Tesla is able to buy current robots w/o driving up prices, they'll continue to buy from 3rd parties.

The wildcard is software. Tesla is one of the few companies that writes its own manufacturing software. It spans from the time a part is made at a factory (or arrives at the shipping dock), through the service life of the product. Most automakers depend on 3rd parties for software like SAP.

When Tesla sells you a factory, it comes with software included.

 

[WarpedOne]

They are already building their own kukas ... they also improved them so much that two of them replaced some 150.
Gigapress + 2 kukas == stamping + 150 kukas doing welding and repositioning.

Don't do the same, do better.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice little TSLA pop just before 8 a.m. ET in the pre-Market: TSLA Real-Time NASDAQ

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I don't know if its worth it for Tesla to build its own KUKA-style robots. My impression of Tesla's (esp. Elon's) developments so far is that they only move into an area that is ripe for disruption. For example, tunnel boring. The existing TBM makers could not even tell you what their limiting factor was for boring speed. But Tesla (or Elon) is highly unlikely to create a 'smart phone', because that is a well-solved problem, and the runway for innovation is relatively small.

So I don't know enough about KUKA robots to judge if they need disrupting. I'll leave that to the group, for someone with first-hand knowledge of the state of the industry, and the issues. My instinct is as long as Tesla can buy all the assembly robots it needs w/o driving up prices, they'll continue to buy from 3rd parties.

The wildcard in this is software. Tesla is one of the few companies that writes and owns its own manufacturing software, which spans from the time a part is made at a factory (or arrives at the shipping dock), through the service life of the product (ie: the car's component history is visible at the Tesla Service Center, and though the 'back-end' that runs the mobile app for scheduling svc appointments). Nobody else has that, they mostly depend on 3rd parties for software like SAP. When Tesla sells you a factory, it will come with the software that makes it work.

Well, I wasn't thinking so much building KUKAs to overtake the market for robots, but as an internal production line, much like they build their own seats rather than buying them from one of the existing seat manufacturers. Build the robots for their factories themselves. Seems unlikely to ever make sense to do it (they'd need to be needing a LOT of them, on an ongoing basis) but they should have the technical know-how.

It was more of a "hmm..." than a serious "they should do this"

 

[ZeApelido]

Now updated with Rob's and Troy's numbers:

View attachment 795546

After an in-depth analysis including tens of spreadsheets (too advanced to share) and advanced fractal calculations, I estimate a non-GAAP EPS of $2.80.

Plz add.