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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
And earnings will be at least $9.25 three months from now. Then $11.5 three months after that.
Call me crazy, but everyone knows this math and the looming earnings, and can trade on it. That's just an untenable options market environment IMO.
And that's not even considering the music stops halfway thru this summer when the split happens and eeeeeeverybody's gotta cover their naked short positions.
I didn't see how much open interest there was for this week's calls. Let's see if they can put a cap on it for just two days. Then again, how do you add to your naked short position here? That's suicide.
Fun times.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Chevron puts obviously!
Not a fan of rivian, but to be fair that 2.1 billion is not apples to apples comparison and there's huge one Time non cash donation of 1% of equity to a charity when it IPOed
thesmokingman
Active Member
But to be fair, it's a pretty profound contrast though. One is making hundreds of thousands of cars a quarter while the other not so much.
That's why not a fan. I think the comparable number was more like 700 million from memory, which is still bonkers
Pierre ferragu asked about this in the call. He said something like by 2030 Tesla could have somewhere around $500B in cash and has Tesla thought about what they'd do with that cash balance.
Elon and Zack both chuckled and I believe Elon said it's a good problem to have. Zack was quick to interject that they have to work out the economics of the robotaxis and Tesla bot, and will make moves from there. Elon also makes an off the cuff remark that they should probably do something useful with that amount of cash. (Note I'm going off memory so take this with a grain of salt.)
Between robotaxi, Tesla bot, and insurance I could see Tesla utilizing significant chunks of that cash balance. I can also see Tesla paying for boring tunnels to create a FSD exclusive network of tunnels. The last thing they'll do is stock buybacks and dividends
X Fan
Active Member
Couldn’t make the call and will catch up tomorrow. Was their any discussion on accelerating Supercharger buildout?
Krugerrand
Meow
Nope. There was a question about opening it up in the US to non-Tesla cars, though.
Yes, I also think this is a possibility, as an extension of the Robotaxi concept,
Robotaxis can use the tunnels to complete trips faster, the customer is happy, and the Robotaxi can do more trips per day.
Customers will pay a bit more to get a faster more predictable trip time. Especially CBD to airport and similar routes, time is money.
They did say that they were accelerating the buildout while answering another question about supercharging.
Tesla's numbers include investment in developing the 4680, Optimus, & building out FSD. Building out 2 new factories... launching a new vehicle design. Developing 4 new model lines.
There is no comparison. Rivian's expenses should be a quarter or less of what Tesla's are.
Tesla is insanely good with their expenses, but Rivian is quite bad.
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I'm from Oregon, maybe CBD means something different here than where you are.
mickificki
Member
2170 is for Fremont. If they want to shut down MY in Fremont in order to completely rebuild, those packs can go to Austin. A complete rebuild in Fremont could be coming sooner than expected, if 4680 ramp falls behind what the factory ramp can achieve.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Moody’s rationale makes no sense to me.You are correct. Here's a quote from Moody's Tesla report from Jan 25, 2022 (emphasis mine):
"FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be upgraded if Tesla successfully expands its global footprint, maintains a strong competitive global presence as other automakers offer an increasing number of battery electric models, and improves its product breadth. Tesla's ability to sustain an EBITA margin of at least 7% (measured excluding the contribution from emission credits), and a consistent, prudent financial policy are also important considerations for higher ratings. Further, Tesla will need to maintain very good liquidity, including ample cash and considerable committed availability under its revolving credit facility.
The ratings could be downgraded if demand for Tesla models softens amid an expanding offering of battery electric vehicles by other automakers, or if Tesla is unable to sustain EBITA margin above 5% (measured excluding the contribution from emission credits). A material shift in Tesla's financial policy that signals a greater tolerance for financial risk could also cause a ratings downgrade, including if debt/EBITDA is greater than 3 times or if the amount of cash and committed revolver availability decreases considerably from current levels."
Moody's upgrades Tesla's corporate family rating to Ba1; outlook positive
Rating Actionm.moodys.com
Imagine not giving top credit rating to a firm that has:
- $18B cash and cash equivalents
- No substantial debt or other liabilities
- Operating expenses of $1.8B per quarter
- $1T market cap
- Demonstrated ability to sell equity for more cash without crashing stock price
- $2.2B free cash flow per quarter
- Backing from the richest person in the world who could and would infuse tens of billions of dollars by borrowing against his other investments if necessary
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Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Well they’re talking about mass production of robotaxis in 2024 and they’re building distributed electrical utilities. That can suck up all their free cash flow for the next several years.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I like how their estimated earnings for 1Q24 exactly match the result for 1Q22.
For folks who wonder why it takes a bit for these big shops to start buying after blowout earnings.......
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Austin is nowhere near up the ramp to cover Fremont-level production of ANY model.
Austin is making a few hundred cars per week. Total.
Fremont is a full order of magnitude above that - thousands of cars per week. Heck thousands of Model Y LR's alone. Like around 4000.
Just-send-the-2170's-to-Austin-while-Fremont-retools does not make any sense at this time.
I expect to see Austin produce purely 4680 based MYAWD's for many months while the work the kinks out, get people trained, and start to build additional lines based on the initial ones. Meanwhile Fremont has to carry the MYLR load until probably 2023 when Austin is much farther up it's ramp.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Yes there was contrary to a previous reply. Zack specifically said that supercharger build out had already accelerated recently and would continue to accelerate.
and you can see this in numbers in the quarterly report.
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