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In the call Musk specifically predicted that the cost of a robotaxi ride will be cheaper than a bus ticket or subway token. For an experience that is so vastly better than busses and subways, it wouldn’t make any sense any longer for anyone to take mass transportation.

BUT, traffic would then become a nightmare. Yes, robotaxis will reduce the number of cars in the world, but there will be way more cars on the road at any given place and time if it’s cheaper than mass transport.

So the limiting factor of Musk’s grand vision is not lithium, chips, or battery production, it’s….tunnels.

The only solution to increased traffic is more roadways, and the only palatable solution to more roadways is to build them underground.

The success of the Boring Company becomes key to Musk’s overall vision, and the Boring Company seems to be on a trajectory to multiply the number of road miles in existence.

Most of us don’t have a direct financial stake in the Boring Company, but its success is key to Tesla selling all the robotaxis that the market will want if traffic is not a gating issue.

Tunnels also may be key to making FSD (and hence robotaxis) work at all. New roadways can be optimized to make FSD much safer than on existing roadways.

And as important as electric cars are to sustainable energy, tunnels are even more important to sustainable cities. Take NYC (please). Violence in the subways is up 75%. Millions of New Yorkers are afraid to take it, but NYC simply becomes non viable without its subway system. Building enough tunnels in NYC will be a gargantuan challenge, but if that challenge can be met, the implications for the future of urban living are mind blowing.

So, what Musk is achieving with Tesla is extraordinary, but the progress of the Boring Company warrants even more attention by all of us going forward.

Focus less on the car, and more on the road.
Seems to me a case could be made for folding Boring into Tesla. Like the Superchargers and FSD it apparently will be critical for sustainable transport.
 
(Sorry off-topic: ) This story covers two of my passions: Tesla and ultra running! Man vs. Machine! And it happened in Austin, Texas!

 
'psychology' is just such a pat answer to some questions that I find myself rebelling when it is invoked, but you make an interesting point: If people have to wait a few months to accumulate enough savings for the next share purchase, they lose out on the interval appreciation. In a stock like TSLA where that can be 10 - 30%, it is real money for these young investors.
Also, because "stuff happens", the money they are saving to buy TSLA often gets funneled elsewhere. A lower stock price just makes it easier to invest.
 
It sounds like Moody's is partially objective, but largely subjective. They could, for example, hold that "product diversification" criteria over Tesla's head forever if Tesla doesn’t fork over some payola. It will probably take a level of embarrassment to force Moody's to actually make the upgrade. I wouldn’t expect this to happen anytime soon.

I would love for this not to age well.
They are. Analysis is done according to a clear ratings methodology that is openly published.

Unfortunately they then take it to a ratings committee filled with people who have ended up working at Moody's where they can make adjustments to assumptions based on their superior intelect - which influences the outcome.

I've dealt with them directly on many occasions when getting bonds rated. There is quite a bit of wiggle room in the ultimate outcome based on how well you can argue your assumptions with both with the person doing the analysis and the committee.
 

I love that guy.

Edit: (Gary's ok. I meant Elon)
Should he return the stocks he earned as part of his compensation plan? I'm just asking as a shareholder who thought we paid for his success. He can give them to Teslay's employees if he prefers, of course.

Benjamin Franklin:

In reality, there is, perhaps, no one of our natural passions so hard to subdue as pride. Disguise it, struggle with it, beat it down, stifle it, mortify it as much as one pleases, it is still alive, and will every now and then peep out and show itself; you will see it, perhaps, often in this history; for, even if I could conceive that I had completely overcome it, I should probably be proud of my humility.
 
Yes there was contrary to a previous reply. Zack specifically said that supercharger build out had already accelerated recently and would continue to accelerate.

and you can see this in numbers in the quarterly report.

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Thanks for response. SC buildout continues to a very important competitive advantage plus needed to convince an even deeper wave of buyers.

I would like an ever faster roll out.
 
Now that profitability is not an issue, affordability will become the next line of attack.

I'm not too worried as an investor that the company I invest in makes too much money whilst growing at an insane rate. :cool:

I don't hear bears complaining about how Apple computers are overpriced.
 
Tweet by a troll triggered an interesting discussion by Elon.

View attachment 796043View attachment 796044
Re these excellent tweet answers from Elon about the real story of how it was Elon and Eberhard who created what Tesla is today/

Excellent reminder, thanks! - I wish Isaacson would start publishing NOW snippets of Tesla's history - all to be recast/ rewritten into a book (or rather a blog, more like an annotated super documentary.

Too much to ask for, but even better: getting a top writer to supervise a crowdfunded blog/ wikipedia like recording it key pieces of information as we go along. Since Isaacson is no doubt currently doing that research anyway.

Right now superfans on Twitter, some personalities (Cathy Wood, Ron Baron .. even VW's Herbert Diess ) and top YouTubers (and of course key TMC members) are the main high level knowledgeable supporters/ truth bearers for Tesla. Imagine having all their information, plus the contrasting lying naysayers info available in a proper database/ blog resource.
 
Should he return the stocks he earned as part of his compensation plan? I'm just asking as a shareholder who thought we paid for his success. He can give them to Teslay's employees if he prefers, of course.
A ceo's main job is to recognize success while pivoting away from failures. Musk's quote is fitting for this job description. When Elon fails at pivoting away from failures, then thats his fault. When he finds success, that comes from others.

You got exactly what you paid for.
 
I wonder if Elon really feels like he needs a comp package. He gets endless harassment for theing the richest person on the planet. Just being able to steer the company and price appreciation of his already large share of the company could be motivation enough.

Elon's comp package is to make sure he keeps a firm grip on Tesla's direction - lesson he learned from his experience at his previous companies. So far has proved a great decision. And reassuring considering Elon's true commitment to Tesla (and his other companies) mission. Would I prefer shares in his hands or those of investors who may be constrained by real life obligations or just profit motives? No, especially since Elon is ALSO great at business, ir making profits. (not really for us, for SpaceX and Tesla's mission, but I'll take the profits .. )
 
This came out yesterday and I expected someone else to post it. I don't remember seeing it here (feel free to delete it if it is a duplicate).


The link below is discussion of the link above.


What a hypocrite! Same guy trying to ban Tesla from selling in his state to protect dealer monopolies:

 
Well I think you’re accurately glimpsing Elon’s automotive endgame there. For the individual, even in suburban and exurban areas, car ownership will become completely optional if not undesirable for the majority. You will always have the enthusiast niche, but your typical suburban commuter will save boatloads of time and money overall simply hailing a robotaxi whenever they need to go literally anywhere. Imagine no car insurance, no maintenance, no repairs, no inspections, no registration, no dmv visits, no car payments, no risk of tickets or DUIs or accidents, and most importantly no compromise on freedom of mobility (any destination at any time, on demand).

Of course, this depends on a comprehensive network of fully autonomous self-driving cars. I know that’s been the goal all along, but I honestly think — and I think Elon’s beginning to realize this too — there’s a non-zero chance that AI may need to become practically sentient in order to tackle existing roads as well as a human.

From a first principles standpoint, the easiest answer by far would be to fix the roads by making their laws and layouts adhere to a logical standard, but considering the myriad local, state, and national jurisdictions involved, doing so would probably be so monumentally difficult to achieve that it makes the problem of digital sentience seem trivial by comparison.
I think the more interesting thought is do we need suburban commuters? The rideshare companies still have not reached GAAP profits, after 15 years. I don't see the rush to compete for that business. Also, the vast majority of suburban and exurban commuters have or had kids, that is why they are suburban and exurban. Kids and robotaxi's don't mix. Go look at ubers at soccer games and ubers and daycare.

I believe it is much more powerful to challenge societies assumption for the need to commute to an office job. A factory job? Sure. Better just to challenge. But all those office jobs? My past colleagues in legal consulting are all virtual, the company is virtual today. Only in India is anyone going to an office (in that company). I think robotaxi's will have a place I just don't see it as powerful (in terms of mission) or profitable.
 
Isn't she beautiful? I'm surprised yahoo updated this so quickly:

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Not a fan of rivian, but to be fair that 2.1 billion is not apples to apples comparison and there's huge one Time non cash donation of 1% of equity to a charity when it IPOed
For the mission we need every EV that can be made. Every single one. They don't impact Tesla, they are pushing Ford and GM though so good on Rivian.
 
I found this part in the deck interesting:

Energy Storage
Energy storage deployments increased by 90% YoY in Q1 to 846 MWh, mainly
driven by strong Powerwall deployments. As demand remains substantially above
capacity, growth has been limited by ongoing supply chain challenges. We are in
the process of ramping production at a dedicated Megapack factory to address the
growing demand.

I haven't heard much about the Megapack factory in Lathrop since they broke the ground back in September. Not all factories attract drone pilots I guess. But now they are ramping. Which is great!

All I could find out is that it's close to the distribution centre on Tesla Drive in Lathrop. Anyone following this more closely?
 
I like how their estimated earnings for 1Q24 exactly match the result for 1Q22.

For folks who wonder why it takes a bit for these big shops to start buying after blowout earnings.......
Looks as if the analyst Garrett Nelson tries to value Tesla like a traditional auto manufacturer building seasonality into his model.
He has $4.11 EPS for Q4 2023 and then for the next 3 quarters he has lower numbers of $3.22, $3.65 and $3.84. How would this be possible for Tesla?
FYI: Where he has $15.25 GAAP EPS for 2024, I have $33.69 (more than double his number).

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