Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Welcome to Stock Trends Amateur Hour
I hesitate to post this because there's no technical basis (nor fundamental basis) underlying this analysis.
But since I spent a few minutes on it and there's an interesting price movement, I thought I would share it.
Use this info at your own peril.

Q4 was a "so so" quarter. The more recent quarter where Tesla beat expectations was Q3 (a 17% beat).
- Tesla reported Q3 earnings on Oct 20 and you can see that even with a 17% beat, the stock moved just slightly to $909 by Fri Oct 22.
- On Monday Oct 25, the 100k Hertz order was revealed and the stock popped to $1,024 but traded sideways for a couple of days to $1.037 on Wed.
- Then with no news it moved to $1,222 over the next 7 trading days. An 18% move while the NASDAQ was up 5%.
- Volume was very high on Nov 1 & 2 (likely a whale scooping up shares).

Perhaps we see a similar delayed response to this Q1 2022 beat.

View attachment 796375

Absolutely this is a trend (delayed response to blow-out results). It's been happening for years and is not typical of the behavior I've seen in other growth stocks I've followed closely. Of course, the evolution of the market should eventually reduce this effect over time, if it becomes too predictable.

It makes sense too because so much money is playing bull options for the week of earnings. Then, as options players figure out that TSLA often has a delayed response to excellent results they have learned to buy themselves another week of time and, thus, the bulk of the stock price's response is further delayed. The natural progression would be for option players to start buying themselves another couple of weeks or even a month beyond earnings releases.

There is no doubt that the options markets dulls the equity market's response to new information and the larger the options market becomes relative to the trading of the underlying equity, the bigger this distortion becomes. When the imbalance becomes as large as it is for TSLA, a very profitable situation is created for market makers because they gain more leverage over the share price and more easily jerk it around to maximize profits.

 

[ZachF]

Or they should weight the targets by the star-rating of the "analysts".

They should weigh the ratings of the (around ~80%) analysts who can’t beat the S&P at 0%.

 

[ggies07]

Bill Gates supposedly has another massive short on Tesla. Hopefully he’ll lose this one like he did the last.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517478378886119425

Why would Jason saying something like this? How would we know/find out? I'm not about to start telling people this without verification....

 

[SO16]

Or they should weight the targets by the star-rating of the "analysts".

Should be median.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Please for the love of God....no one say anything!! Don't be that guy/gal!

I think that what happened (again, like yesterday morning), a large Call options holder bid up the SP rapidly so they could sell to close their Calls. This causes Market Makers to reflexively sell shares since they no longer have to hedge the shares on the closed Call contracts. Hence, we see the $1/min walkdow in SP as the MMs robots sell steadily.

This is probably why a Day Trader's mantra is "sell into strength" because the pop is transitory and quickly clawed back by shortzes.. They won't let TSLA get too far ahead of the NDX. Auntie Cathie calls it "wack-a-mole". Hedgies religion revolves around the "Beta".

 

[SmokyPeat]

Bill Gates supposedly has another massive short on Tesla. Hopefully he’ll lose this one like he did the last.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517478378886119425

Interesting. Buffett seems to be warming up to Tesla lately. I get the sense that he and Bill aren't nearly as tight as they were a few years ago.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think that what happened (again, like yesterday morning), a large Call options holder bid up the SP rapidly so they could sell to close their Calls. This causes Market Makers to reflexively sell shares since they no longer have to hedge the shares on the closed Call contracts. Hence, we see the $1/min walkdow in SP as the MMs robots sell steadily.

View attachment 796390

This is probably why a Day Trader's mantra is "sell into strength" because the pop is transitory and quickly clawed back by shortzes.. They won't let TSLA get too far ahead of the NDX. Auntie Cathie calls it "wack-a-mole". Hedgies religion revolves around the "Beta".

Does 'The longer the base....the bigger the breakout....' apply anymore or has that shipped sailed since Auntie Cathie has been unloading and buying 'future winners'...... Asking for a friend

 

[SO16]

Interesting. Buffett seems to be warming up to Tesla lately. I get the sense that he and Bill aren't nearly as tight as they were a few years ago.

I wouldn’t count too much on Warren. All I know of is Warren saying a few nice things about Elon. Talk is cheap. Warren in the past has definitely sided with fossil fuel interests.

Don’t be fooled! Elon Musk says Warren Buffett isn’t quite the ‘kindly grandfather’ he’s cracked up to be

It’s pretty clear there’s at least a bit of animosity between two of the richest men in the world.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[GOVA]

ER talk:

Electrical forum was no help, so if I may ask here -

In regards to charging standards question: Can anybody clarify Elon's response. I think it went along the lines that Tesla is going to standarize towards the most common solution. Is that correct???

 

[Ohmster]

Love the graph….

Will Tesla Be the Next Netflix? It Could Be Another Google. — Barron's

Tesla is rapidly becoming the king of the side hustle. It is a conglomerate of many, many business ideas that are funded by a ultradominant core operation. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) bulls believe the other businesses are a good thing, while bears have their doubts. Who is right isn’t all that...

stocks.apple.com

 

[Words of HABIT]

Finally!

View attachment 796378

Tesla had a P/E ratio of $1,372 on January 27, 2021 when the share price was $850 (10X today's P/E ratio).
So here we are with a P/E ratio of $136 on April 22, 2022 and the share price has risen only 18% since January 27, 2021 P/E ratio high. And with all the achievements Tesla has executed since then.
Tesla PE Ratio (YCharts had yet to update P/E ratio to $136.27 as of this posting)
Since this makes no sense, we can use this information to make cents.
If this is not a buying opportunity, I don't know what is.

 

[ZachF]

Just trying to show what Wall Street thinks an appropriate PE should be for a large cap, 25% growth company.

Looking closer at the salesforce numbers though, they really aren’t that great either…

Income Statement for Salesforce Inc (CRM) from Morningstar.com

Get Salesforce Inc (CRM) historical quarterly, 5 year, or 10 year Income Statement information including revenue, sales, expenses, operating income, taxes, net income, and earnings per share.

financials.morningstar.com

Their core business earnings are basically unchanged at $500m since 2019, and most of their earnings since then are from basically financial noise.

They trade at around 300x operating income and have a 0% CAGR there since 2018. Not a buy imho. This is on top of their products being garbage.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I wouldn’t count too much on Warren. All I know of is Warren saying a few nice things about Elon. Talk is cheap. Warren in the past has definitely sided with fossil fuel interests.

Don’t be fooled! Elon Musk says Warren Buffett isn’t quite the ‘kindly grandfather’ he’s cracked up to be

It’s pretty clear there’s at least a bit of animosity between two of the richest men in the world.

www.marketwatch.com

Not counting on anything from Buffett, but it's nice to see him acknowledging Tesla's achievements. I think we'll see an accelerating reversal from many of the doubters/haters. Screaming Jim Cramer was one of the first, and I've noticed many of the talking heads at CNBC et al are now bullish on Tesla. Gates may be one of the last holdouts along with others like Gordon and Burry.

 

[ZachF]

Love the graph….

View attachment 796396​

Will Tesla Be the Next Netflix? It Could Be Another Google. — Barron's

Tesla is rapidly becoming the king of the side hustle. It is a conglomerate of many, many business ideas that are funded by a ultradominant core operation. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) bulls believe the other businesses are a good thing, while bears have their doubts. Who is right isn’t all that...

stocks.apple.com

Looking at the share price, I’m not sure being “The Next Netflix” is a good thing…

 

[MadScientist23]

If people have to wait a few months to accumulate enough savings for the next share purchase, they lose out on the interval appreciation. In a stock like TSLA where that can be 10 - 30%, it is real money for these young investors.

This is very much where I am at with my wife. It's hard to get her to buy more now with the price where it's at just because of the lump amounts, even a couple shares. She's pushing me for more diversification into other stocks or indexes. It's funny because when we actually sit and talk about the fundamentals of the company she's excited about it but the emotions of so much in one basket makes her nervous. We have other investments (real estate, diverse 401k, crypto...) but it's easier for me to buy a couple shares here and there at a lower price than a couple every couple months to appease her.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does 'The longer the base....the bigger the breakout....' apply anymore or has that shipped sailed since Auntie Cathie has been unloading and buying 'future winners'...... Asking for a friend

Well, I'm not the one to answer that, since I've just begun my 5th year as a TSLA investor, but you certainly do hear plenty of TSLAQ-types crowing for a multi-year flat spot.

I like the "wind-the-spring-tighter" analogy. Shortzes are getting increasingly desparate making up false narratives for Tesla to trip over.

Like the S&P credit rating agency's embarrassing note yesterday. They are LITERALLY making up new critera for Tesla that they have NEVER applied to any other company. Where'd they get the 18% Operating Margins requirement? Litterally NOBODY else has that; Tesla leads the world for large-goods manufacturers.

But what was conspicuously absent from the S&P note? The FACT that Tesla now has effectively ZERO DEBT (they don't NEED no stankin' credit). They don't even need Insurance Underwriters now. Now how does a Credit Rating Agency miss that?

No, S&P's pathetic note was a delaying tactic paid by the hedge funds who would be damaged by a TSLA with a larger pool of institutional inverstors able to buy'n'hold (which hedgies HATE), due to the investment grade credit rating.

Just keep in mind, S&P Credit Rating Agency is part of the same Clown Posse who brought you the 2008 mortgate crisis, then left you with the likes of Michael Burry et.al. Too many short term thinkers, not enough responsible goverment.

#S&P #SEC

 

[StealthP3D]

ER talk:

Electrical forum was no help, so if I may ask here -

In regards to charging standards question: Can anybody clarify Elon's response. I think it went along the lines that Tesla is going to standarize towards the most common solution. Is that correct???

No, he didn't say that.

 

[2daMoon]

I find it quite shocking that nobody has posted the Instagram meme of Bezos saying to Elon, "Heard you're buying Twitter."

Guess it is going to be another slow Friday then, isn't it?

Should we go ahead and start the weekend now?

Edit: Okay, I figured out how to get it in here...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Giga Shanghai is rockin' and this was just the 1st day back - Apr 20, 2022:

The plan is for one group of employees to live on-site (with good food and entertainment for off-hrs), while working 12-hr shifts, 6-days per week, until Mon, May 2nd when the greater Shanghai area opens up further.

As always, logistics will be key but there are few more capable organizations than China, Inc.. It's gonna be fine.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[cusetownusa]

Anything going on with the Fremont factory (i.e. retooling)? While waiting on my Model Y (I spend an unhealthy amount of time in the Model Y delivery forum) it has been clear that VIN assignments have dropped off a cliff after EOQ rush, and most everyone today has had their EDD pushed out a month.

Just wanted to follow up to my own post from 2 days ago. After wondering why we haven't seen many VIN assignments out of Fremont for the month of April, today started an avalanche of VINs being assigned. With one of them being mine. Can't believe I will actually be getting a Tesla here soon after waiting 7 months.