Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MadScientist23]

his came out yesterday and I expected someone else to post it. I don't remember seeing it here (feel free to delete it if it is a duplicate).

Oklahoma governor pushes for $700 million rebate package to lure a company he can’t name

Oklahoma wants to be the site of the next Panasonic plant.

www.theverge.com

I was aware panasonic was rumored to be part of this and had hoped TSLA would be as well but kept my hopes down. Kansas is also trying for this https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article258222573.html

I'd love to see this in my home state.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I've been thinking about Elon's decision to participate in the 2021Q1 Conference Call on Wednesday. Now, a lot of you may say (and rightly so) that CFO Zach Kirkhorn is more than capable of leading a Conference Call, and that Elon's announcement of Robotaxi by '24 was not urgent (at least for the short-timers who we laughingly call 'analysts').

But I think there was a more important, underlying reason why Elon made the right choice in participating in the Conference Call. With this week's drama over the Twitter take-over, tender offers, margin loans, and X-holding companies, it might be easy to get the impression that Elon is distracted, and Tesla is rudderless. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Instead, we heard a relaxed, engaged, and informed CEO, displaying his usual level of insight and understanding of the current operational challenges faced by Tesla, and with a firm opinion on how it will be resolved in the near term. Further, year-end guidance could not have been better, and is actually MORE bullish than Tesla guided for just 3 months ago. Elon showed he is MORE than capable of handling this work-load, and he is happy and productive, living his dream life in wide-open Texas. BAF.

Particularly, the strategic decision to add 2170-based Model Y variants at both Berlin and Austin signals that Tesla has an ample supply of battery cells, and intents to MAXIMIZE production going forward. Berlin in particular will save the 3 week shutdown in 2022H2 to convert to 4680 production, and will simple ADD to existing 2170 production (specs can easily be engineered to match).

All this means more batteries for Cybertruck next year, and accelerates the introduction of Semi. The tease of Robotaxi produced in volume in 2024 is just icing on the cake for those of us that know FSD margins (and know that Elon means business).

So bring on the AGM, which should be held in early June, and Elon's next appearance on a Tesla conference call.

BULLISH!

 

[gene]

This is very much where I am at with my wife. It's hard to get her to buy more now with the price where it's at just because of the lump amounts, even a couple shares. She's pushing me for more diversification into other stocks or indexes. It's funny because when we actually sit and talk about the fundamentals of the company she's excited about it but the emotions of so much in one basket makes her nervous. We have other investments (real estate, diverse 401k, crypto...) but it's easier for me to buy a couple shares here and there at a lower price than a couple every couple months to appease her.

I have been in TSLA since 2012. Obviously done very well. Every time I try to "diversify" even a little, I lose money on the diversified stocks. I think it is better to invest solely in the one stock that you have studied and understand completely than just throw money here and there.

 

[nativewolf]

I've been thinking about Elon's decision to participate in the 2021Q1 Conference Call on Wednesday. Now, a lot of you may say (and rightly so) that CFO Zach Kirkhorn is more than capable of leading a Conference Call, and that Elon's announcement of Robotaxi by '24 was not urgent (at least for the short-timers who we laughingly call 'analysts').

But I think there was a more important, underlying reason why Elon made the right choice in participating in the Conference Call. With this week's drama over the Twitter take-over, tender offers, margin loans, and X-holding companies, it might be easy to get the impression that Elon is distracted, and Tesla is rudderless. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Instead, we heard a relaxed, engaged, and informed CEO, displaying his usual level of insight and understanding of the current operational challenges faced by Tesla, and with a firm opinion on how it will be resolved in the near term. Further, year-end guidance could not have been better, and is actually MORE bullish than Tesla guided for just 3 months ago. Elon showed he is MORE than capable of handling this work-load, and he is happy and productive, living his dream life in wide-open Texas. BAF.

Particularly, the strategic decision to add 2170-based Model Y variants at both Berlin and Austin signals that Tesla has an ample supply of battery cells, and intents to MAXIMIZE production going forward. Berlin in particular will save the 3 week shutdown in 2022H2 to convert to 4680 production, and will simple ADD to existing 2170 production (specs can easily be engineered to match).

All this means more batteries for Cybertruck next year, and accelerates the introduction of Semi. The tease of Robotaxi produced in volume in 2024 is just icing on the cake for those of us that know FSD margins (and know that Elon means business).

So bring on the AGM, which should be held in early June, and Elon's next appearance on a Tesla conference call.

BULLISH!

You are an abashed full on optimist. Good on you.

I look at the 2170 and say darn...4680 is just not scaling. You look at that and say see...Tesla is still going to get the batteries. Both are true but you are more optimistic! Again, good on you. Have a great weekend.

 

[Nocturnal]

I was aware panasonic was rumored to be part of this and had hoped TSLA would be as well but kept my hopes down. Kansas is also trying for this https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article258222573.html

I'd love to see this in my home state.

Then we can be the cool kids stalki...err monitoring the new factory.

I have been in TSLA since 2012. Obviously done very well. Every time I try to "diversify" even a little, I lose money on the diversified stocks. I think it is better to invest solely in the one stock that you have studied and understand completely than just throw money here and there.

Almost every time for me as well. When I decide it's really time to diversify (for real this time) I'll probably hold half Tesla and half SPY.

 

[ninpb]

Any chance Tesla will create a financial arm to do their own lending? Pros, cons? Will this drop cash flow needed for growth?

 

[AudubonB]

Any chance Tesla will create a financial arm to do their own lending? Pros, cons? Will this drop cash flow needed for growth?

That's a question for @jbcarioca to expound upon. I hope he keeps his reply to less than 100 pages, though.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Any chance Tesla will create a financial arm to do their own lending? Pros, cons? Will this drop cash flow needed for growth?

They already have one. That is what they run their lease securitisations from.

 

[ZsoZso]

No, S&P's pathetic note was a delaying tactic paid by the hedge funds who would be damaged by a TSLA with a larger pool of institutional inverstors able to buy'n'hold (which hedgies HATE), due to the investment grade credit rating.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but would like to nit-pick on this statement I quoted above. The large pool of buy'n'hold institutions are not necessary the enemy of hedgies.
Just as with the S&P500 inclusion, some people were expecting the stock price to become less volatile, but that is not a logical consequence. Quite the contrary: the more shares are held long term with no daily trading on them, the less shares are in the active trading pool, hence it is easier for any pressure (up or down) to move the stock, thus it becomes more volatile, which is something the hedgies like.

ps: Of course, the part that the hedgies / shortzes do not like about a good credit rating is the influx of new capital into TSLA, which would be a strong buying interest pushing the SP up substantially.

 

[H Mak]

Tesla had a P/E ratio of $1,372 on January 27, 2021 when the share price was $850 (10X today's P/E ratio).
So here we are with a P/E ratio of $136 on April 22, 2022 and the share price has risen only 18% since January 27, 2021 P/E ratio high. And with all the achievements Tesla has executed since then.
Tesla PE Ratio (YCharts had yet to update P/E ratio to $136.27 as of this posting)
Since this makes no sense, we can use this information to make cents.
If this is not a buying opportunity, I don't know what is.

I couldn't agree more, it's a case of when not if. However a PE of over 100 is by any measure high. And for this reason potential investors will be put off. I looked at Apple and Amazon about 20 years ago and was scared off with the high PE ratios. Mistake. Many people will think the same about Tesla right now, so in a way its understandable that the share price hasn't yet responded.

But everyone on this forum knows what's what and how it will end. Elon has said Tesla could become the world's most valuable company and if you do the analysis rather than follow the crowd, you reach the same conclusion. Its almost inevitable

 

[kbM3]

I've been thinking about Elon's decision to participate in the 2021Q1 Conference Call on Wednesday. Now, a lot of you may say (and rightly so) that CFO Zach Kirkhorn is more than capable of leading a Conference Call, and that Elon's announcement of Robotaxi by '24 was not urgent (at least for the short-timers who we laughingly call 'analysts').

But I think there was a more important, underlying reason why Elon made the right choice in participating in the Conference Call. With this week's drama over the Twitter take-over, tender offers, margin loans, and X-holding companies, it might be easy to get the impression that Elon is distracted, and Tesla is rudderless. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Instead, we heard a relaxed, engaged, and informed CEO, displaying his usual level of insight and understanding of the current operational challenges faced by Tesla, and with a firm opinion on how it will be resolved in the near term. Further, year-end guidance could not have been better, and is actually MORE bullish than Tesla guided for just 3 months ago. Elon showed he is MORE than capable of handling this work-load, and he is happy and productive, living his dream life in wide-open Texas. BAF.

Particularly, the strategic decision to add 2170-based Model Y variants at both Berlin and Austin signals that Tesla has an ample supply of battery cells, and intents to MAXIMIZE production going forward. Berlin in particular will save the 3 week shutdown in 2022H2 to convert to 4680 production, and will simple ADD to existing 2170 production (specs can easily be engineered to match).

All this means more batteries for Cybertruck next year, and accelerates the introduction of Semi. The tease of Robotaxi produced in volume in 2024 is just icing on the cake for those of us that know FSD margins (and know that Elon means business).

So bring on the AGM, which should be held in early June, and Elon's next appearance on a Tesla conference call.

BULLISH!

You are an abashed full on optimist. Good on you.

I look at the 2170 and say darn...4680 is just not scaling. You look at that and say see...Tesla is still going to get the batteries. Both are true but you are more optimistic! Again, good on you. Have a great weekend.

Tesla’s decision on adding non-structural 2170 packs in Austin is not a positive. It’s a very effective mitigation strategy of a slower than forecast 4680 ramp, but that does not make it a positive. If you think it is a positive, that would mean if Elon tweeted they don’t need 2170’s after all in Austin, you would have to view that as a negative.

Although not clearly stated, it seems apparent that the 4680 ramp is going slower than they hoped. In calls last year, they guided 100 GWh this year, while Elon and Drew stated they were shooting for a 200 GWh / year rate by the end of this year.

If you recall, the original plan was to use 4680’s at both Berlin and Austin, with 2170’s as a fallback if necessary. It was very good news that although they didn’t hit that target for Berlin, they at least did for Austin. Now we know they need the fallback for Austin as well.

On the other hand: What was encouraging was that I thought I recalled from the call that going slower on the 4680 ramp, enabled more improvements (or some other positive benefits). So it is possible the slower 4680 ramp was intentional and beneficial in the long run and not because of issues.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I've been concerned for some time that 4680 cell production would limit the production ramp in Austin this year. So the introduction of the structural 2170 pack at Giga Texas is a positive from my perspective as well. It should enable a much quicker ramp up than I was expecting.

 

[Usain]

Tesla’s decision on adding non-structural 2170 packs in Austin is not a positive.

Are we certain this is actually happening or are we just talking about a restatement of the backup plan?

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm expecting a strong pop on Monday.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla’s decision on adding non-structural 2170 packs in Austin is not a positive. It’s a very effective mitigation strategy of a slower than forecast 4680 ramp, but that does not make it a positive. If you think it is a positive, that would mean if Elon tweeted they don’t need 2170’s after all in Austin, you would have to view that as a negative.

Although not clearly stated, it seems apparent that the 4680 ramp is going slower than they hoped. In calls last year, they guided 100 GWh this year, while Elon and Drew stated they were shooting for a 200 GWh / year rate by the end of this year.

If you recall, the original plan was to use 4680’s at both Berlin and Austin, with 2170’s as a fallback if necessary. It was very good news that although they didn’t hit that target for Berlin, they at least did for Austin. Now we know they need the fallback for Austin as well.

On the other hand: What was encouraging was that I thought I recalled from the call that going slower on the 4680 ramp, enabled more improvements (or some other positive benefits). So it is possible the slower 4680 ramp was intentional and beneficial in the long run and not because of issues.

I don't look at the use of 2170 packs as not scaling 4680s but it's Tesla having an excess of 2170s due to chip shortages. Elon have said during last call that battery supply is NOT an issue for 2022 and that was before the shanghai shut down. He said that chip shortages is still the current issue that is preventing them from ramping to 100% capacity. So 2170s out of Nevada is ramping at max speed and is now having an excess as chips are the rate limiting step. When asked if 2170s is an issue for Berlin due to China shut down and the answer is no. All signs point to 2170s having an excess supply right now.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Gene munster from Loup Ventures has an article out about his thoughts post q1 earnings. He states after rereading the earnings call it hit him that Tesla could reinvent more than EV and autonomy. Decent read:

Tesla Is Putting Way More Than Traditional Auto in Trouble | Deepwater

It’s no surprise that my attention has been focused on the potential downfall of traditional auto as I’ve studied Tesla’s ascent. Why? Because the company has grown 4-5x faster than the traditional car makers. But that’s just the beginning. The sub-theme orbiting the conversation around Tesla is...

loupfunds.com

 

[Ogre]

I don't look at the use of 2170 packs as not scaling 4680s but it's Tesla having an excess of 2170s due to chip shortages. Elon have said during last call that battery supply is NOT an issue for 2022 and that was before the shanghai shut down. He said that chip shortages is still the current issue that is preventing them from ramping to 100% capacity. So 2170s out of Nevada is ramping at max speed and is now having an excess as chips are the rate limiting step. When asked if 2170s is an issue for Berlin due to China shut down and the answer is no. All signs point to 2170s having an excess supply right now.

I don’t think it’s due to the chip shortage so much as an inevitable side effect of the transition to 4680.

Panasonic is producing huge numbers of 2170 cells. Tesla has replaced the need for a big chunk of those with LFP. Now they are replacing the need for many of them with 4680 cells. Powerwalls are going to LFP. Where do these excess cells go?

This gives Tesla the flexibility to mix and match cell types based on what they have on hand.

 

[ninpb]

They already have one. That is what they run their lease securitisations from.

I figured they had to do it for their no-buyout leases. What about for purchases?

 

[CHGolferJim]

I've been thinking about Elon's decision to participate in the 2021Q1 Conference Call on Wednesday. Now, a lot of you may say (and rightly so) that CFO Zach Kirkhorn is more than capable of leading a Conference Call, and that Elon's announcement of Robotaxi by '24 was not urgent (at least for the short-timers who we laughingly call 'analysts').

But I think there was a more important, underlying reason why Elon made the right choice in participating in the Conference Call. With this week's drama over the Twitter take-over, tender offers, margin loans, and X-holding companies, it might be easy to get the impression that Elon is distracted, and Tesla is rudderless. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Instead, we heard a relaxed, engaged, and informed CEO, displaying his usual level of insight and understanding of the current operational challenges faced by Tesla, and with a firm opinion on how it will be resolved in the near term. Further, year-end guidance could not have been better, and is actually MORE bullish than Tesla guided for just 3 months ago. Elon showed he is MORE than capable of handling this work-load, and he is happy and productive, living his dream life in wide-open Texas. BAF.

Particularly, the strategic decision to add 2170-based Model Y variants at both Berlin and Austin signals that Tesla has an ample supply of battery cells, and intents to MAXIMIZE production going forward. Berlin in particular will save the 3 week shutdown in 2022H2 to convert to 4680 production, and will simple ADD to existing 2170 production (specs can easily be engineered to match).

All this means more batteries for Cybertruck next year, and accelerates the introduction of Semi. The tease of Robotaxi produced in volume in 2024 is just icing on the cake for those of us that know FSD margins (and know that Elon means business).

So bring on the AGM, which should be held in early June, and Elon's next appearance on a Tesla conference call.

BULLISH!

From listening to Elon’s remarks, it seemed like he was reading from a script, more or less, rather than just talking. This gave the impression he was more subdued and more focused. Y’all think so?

 

[mongo]

I don’t think it’s due to the chip shortage so much as an inevitable side effect of the transition to 4680.

Panasonic is producing huge numbers of 2170 cells. Tesla has replaced the need for a big chunk of those with LFP. Now they are replacing the need for many of them with 4680 cells. Powerwalls are going to LFP. Where do these excess cells go?

This gives Tesla the flexibility to mix and match cell types based on what they have on hand.

Megapack is LFP
Powerwall is cylindrical

Also, being compatible with non-structural 2170 packs means being compatible with non-structural LFP packs.