Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

So for a weekend on-topic issue to discuss:

Does anyone else think Q2 2022 could be a down month for TSLA and subsequently a huge buying opportunity?

With Shanghai being shutdown for nearly a month and thus needing to ramp back up, it's pretty safe to think Q2 production numbers will be down from Q1. Maybe not by much, but a good chance they will be less than Q1, especially with Berlin and Austin ramping slowly right now. My gut feeling is Wall Street might use that opportunity to push TSLA down quite a bit in the short term after the June / July timeframe (Q2 earnings).

Now, certainly Q3 production will be record smashing, what with Shanghai back up to speed by then plus Berlin & Austin well into ramping up. And Q4 will be even more record smashing than Q3. BUT, Q2 might be a hiccup along the road to new ATH's for TSLA by the year's end.

Is anyone else thinking this and planning to store some dry powder for a potential mid-summer buying opportunity?

Nope.
Production will rebound. Actual build rate will be apparent.
Shutdown will positively impact OpEx. Big question is supply base recovery.
Minimal interest expense.
Minimal 2018 CEO plan costs
Phased in price increases.
Increasing contrast to other OEMs.

As to Wall Street? Who knows they'll do...

(Also, Q2 is not a month ;-) )

 

[SOULPEDL]

They are not selling a Tesla to anyone new.

A-hum... I literally just did this. Sorry to have to repeat this, allow me to dive in a bit deeper.

Robby, was about to buy a Ford Explorer until I realized that the ride I promised him was to go pick buy it - to which I refused and that plan was history. That was 4 weeks ago, and after knowing Robby for just 1 week. So it wasn't about how he believed what people said or not, it just didn't register how good they were as there was no frame of reference. To those of us who can properly drive, this epiphany is immediate upon acceleration and then your first cornering. Myself, I'm still working on that skill.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is anyone else thinking this

Yes. Every TSLAQ and hedgie that exists.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So for a weekend on-topic issue to discuss:

Does anyone else think Q2 2022 could be a down month for TSLA and subsequently a huge buying opportunity?

With Shanghai being shutdown for nearly a month and thus needing to ramp back up, it's pretty safe to think Q2 production numbers will be down from Q1. Maybe not by much, but a good chance they will be less than Q1, especially with Berlin and Austin ramping slowly right now. My gut feeling is Wall Street might use that opportunity to push TSLA down quite a bit in the short term after the June / July timeframe (Q2 earnings).

Now, certainly Q3 production will be record smashing, what with Shanghai back up to speed by then plus Berlin & Austin well into ramping up. And Q4 will be even more record smashing than Q3. BUT, Q2 might be a hiccup along the road to new ATH's for TSLA by the year's end.

Is anyone else thinking this and planning to store some dry powder for a potential mid-summer buying opportunity?

No because

A) Tesla/Elon just guided that Q2 will be around Q1 levels. Maybe slightly less, maybe slightly more. I’m already seeing Q2 eps estimates that are on the low side to account for this

B) Seems like S/X production really seemed to pickup towards the end of Q1. They may produce more than 20,000 for Q2. 6,000 more deliveries of S/X is equal to selling about 15,000 3/Y when it comes to earnings

C) The stock spilt will be happening right around the time of Q2 P/D and Q2 earnings

D) Wall st might focus too much on the short term as usual but even I do not think they’ll be that short sighted to see what Q3 brings - Tesla will also tout that Shangai hit all time highs for weekly production in Q2

 

[EVCollies]

So for a weekend on-topic issue to discuss:

Does anyone else think Q2 2022 could be a down month for TSLA and subsequently a huge buying opportunity?

With Shanghai being shutdown for nearly a month and thus needing to ramp back up, it's pretty safe to think Q2 production numbers will be down from Q1. Maybe not by much, but a good chance they will be less than Q1, especially with Berlin and Austin ramping slowly right now. My gut feeling is Wall Street might use that opportunity to push TSLA down quite a bit in the short term after the June / July timeframe (Q2 earnings).

Now, certainly Q3 production will be record smashing, what with Shanghai back up to speed by then plus Berlin & Austin well into ramping up. And Q4 will be even more record smashing than Q3. BUT, Q2 might be a hiccup along the road to new ATH's for TSLA by the year's end.

Is anyone else thinking this and planning to store some dry powder for a potential mid-summer buying opportunity?

I'm awful at storing dry powder. I'm trying to use options proceeds to diversify a bit but just can't stand to see my $ wallow in an SP500 index fund and they often find their way back into TSLA shares or options.

I agree, Q2 will be lackluster with "only" 20% growth which will sink the SP for a while.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nope.
Production will rebound. Actual build rate will be apparent.

Indeed. Giga Shanghail is already back up to 50% capacity after just 3 days: (and remember this is with just a single shift)

The Tesla folder on Twitter: "In 3 days of re-opening, $TSLA Shanghai is ALREADY at 1,000 vehicles per day! https://t.co/gA5CmFPZDx" / Twitter​

A 2nd shift could be added as soon as Mon, May 2nd. The Shanghai Goverment / China will move mountains to get the supply chain running as quickly as possible (its not just Tesla that's affected). Giga Shanghai production for Q2 will be just fine.

Cheers!

 

[UCF3]

Does anyone else think Q2 2022 could be a down month for TSLA and subsequently a huge buying opportunity?

Is anyone else thinking this and planning to store some dry powder for a potential mid-summer buying opportunity?

You really want to sell and miss out on the upcoming stock dividend and Bill Gates forced covering?

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla could buy Ally Financial for a small premium over $14B.

Ally used to be GMAC Finance. It's tried to be a full service bank, but most it just does auto financing.

Certainly they could. They would need to have horrible judgement to do that.
Ally is a traditional indirect auto lender. That means their business model to to lend to auto dealers for floor planning and to buy loans and leases originated by dealers. Surprise! Their primary business base is GM dealers, hampered because GM reentered the business themselves. They have raised retail money to a degree but that has not really worked very well. Nominally Detroit-based they are really Charlotte, NC based with Bank of America. It is very difficult to imagine a worse idea for Tesla, and it's a not too good idea for anyone at all. Note: perhaps I am hampered by too much personal knowledge of the company history, the management and customer base.

Seriously, does anybody think that ICE auto dealer servicing is a good base from which to build?

 

[JRP3]

Is anyone else thinking this and planning to store some dry powder for a potential mid-summer buying opportunity?

Yes. I've been selling above $1K to reduce my insane TSLA percentage of net worth. It's now slightly less insane. If it keeps going up, great, if there is significant pullback I'll buy some back. Either way I'm good.

 

[Skryll]

You really want to sell and miss out on the upcoming stock dividend and Bill Gates forced covering?

How would he be forced? Maybe the banks that shorted for him will have to actually cough up the shares in the stock split moment, which will make the stock price level rise a bit, but I don't think BG is lacking collateral to maintain his short position for the next few years until he gets bored with, or sees a more creative use for the loss on the books, and might start to slowly covering on the dips without too much impact.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

So for a weekend on-topic issue to discuss:

Does anyone else think Q2 2022 could be a down month for TSLA and subsequently a huge buying opportunity?
…
Is anyone else thinking this and planning to store some dry powder for a potential mid-summer buying opportunity?

Please be the contrarian indicator you have proven to be!
Q2 is almost over, right? Few days left.
I bought 100 shares yesterday (on margin ?) based on this comment

 

[jbcarioca]

Ron Baron sat down for an relaxed, wide-ranging half-hour talk with the CEO of one of the firms that Baron Partners has invested in. Topics include Tesla, SpaceX, Elon, hard work, ethics and why he doesn't trade in and out of stocks. Ron's a seasoned buy'n'hold'er, and he tells you why that's a better way to invest. Enjoy!

Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein: Ron Baron (Sep 17, 2021)

Ron Baron is one of very few people to whom I listen every time because he always is instructive. He sounds simplistic because he works and thinks in, as Elon says, 'First Principles'.
Nobody in the financial services industry thinks that way publicly. David Rockefeller did, but the public almost never said that side of him. Whenever someone seriously takes a long view that someone does tend to resist acting on emotion or anything that seems inherently volatile.

On that basis Tesla fundamentally is quite stable. To see that one needs to ignore share price fluctuations and view business fundamentals. That seems simple.

 

[2daMoon]

Nope.
Production will rebound. Actual build rate will be apparent.
Shutdown will positively impact OpEx. Big question is supply base recovery.
Minimal interest expense.
Minimal 2018 CEO plan costs
Phased in price increases.
Increasing contrast to other OEMs.

As to Wall Street? Who knows they'll do...

(Also, Q2 is not a month ;-) )

Agreed.

Every indication supports how the supply chain was already in place to achieve staggering growth this year. The only difference now is if they can up the production rate slightly in order to remain on track to achieve the set goals.

I think that they were sandbagging anyway (as usual), so do not see any significant obstacle in the path to finishing Q2 as expected, or, at the worst, bringing production in alignment with stated goals early in Q3.

 

[AudubonB]

One more item while I'm on my weekend rampage.

This post is the very last - ever - in this thread that will contain the word "douchebag" or some referent like "d-bag".

Do you have or ever have had a five-year old daughter, niece or granddaughter eager to read and wanting to read what you are reading or writing? Would you like to answer her questions as to what that refers to and have to explain why you think it is an appropriate substitute to describe a horrid human being? Because if you do, you belong neither in my universe nor any of the multiverses.

Do you think any of the female participants of this thread make use of that term? If not, why do you think that is so?

I do not expect - more specifically, I would hang up my spurs if ever it were to be the case - that other forum participants use the English language and its component words as I do. Doesn't matter. There are ALWAYS plenty of good substitutes for trash talk so that the posts in this thread distinguish it in word as well as in action from other venues. NEVER operate under the assumption that free speech exists here.

Any who disagree are encouraged to go to free-for-all sites. That is not here.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nope.
Production will rebound. Actual build rate will be apparent.
Shutdown will positively impact OpEx. Big question is supply base recovery.
Minimal interest expense.
Minimal 2018 CEO plan costs
Phased in price increases.
Increasing contrast to other OEMs.

As to Wall Street? Who knows they'll do...

(Also, Q2 is not a month ;-) )

I agree. And I would not be surprised to see Shanghai pull a rabbit. Indeed, I basically expect them to at this point. That team has been exceptional. The lengths they seem to go to to be successful is amazing.

 

[wtlloyd]

One more item while I'm on my weekend rampage.

This post is the very last - ever - in this thread that will contain the word "douchebag" or some referent like "d-bag".

Do you have or ever have had a five-year old daughter, niece or granddaughter eager to read and wanting to read what you are reading or writing? Would you like to answer her questions as to what that refers to and why it is an approriate substitute for a horrid human being? Because if you do, you belong neither in my universe nor any of the multiverses.

Do you think any of the female participants of this thread make use of that term? If not, why do you think that is so?

I do not expect - more specifically, I would hang up my spurs if ever it were to be the case - that other forum participants use the English language and its component words as I do. Doesn't matter. There are ALWAYS plenty of good substitutes for trash talk so that the posts in this thread distinguish it in word as well as action from other venues. NEVER operate under the assumption that free speech exists here.

Not to contradict, but to point out that "dirtbag" is an equally common epithet for that shared contraction.

 

[mrmage]

How would he be forced? Maybe the banks that shorted for him will have to actually cough up the shares in the stock split moment, which will make the stock price level rise a bit, but I don't think BG is lacking collateral to maintain his short position for the next few years until he gets bored with, or sees a more creative use for the loss on the books, and might start to slowly covering on the dips without too much impact.

Exactly, a half a billion short means losing half a billion if SP doubles, and a billion if stock SP triples. A billion or two is chump change for someone like Gates, yet very material to TSLA back then.

Which is all the more baffling that he'd short Tesla in the first place. It's a poor look for Gates to compromise climate change for a profit, and baffling for such a small gain relative to his net worth.

Then asking Elon to collaborate while doing so, if the sms screenshots are accurate? It's like saying, I'm helping your venture fail but can you help mine succeed? Very disappointing

 

[Krugerrand]

A-hum... I literally just did this. Sorry to have to repeat this, allow me to dive in a bit deeper.

Robby, was about to buy a Ford Explorer until I realized that the ride I promised him was to go pick buy it - to which I refused and that plan was history. That was 4 weeks ago, and after knowing Robby for just 1 week. So it wasn't about how he believed what people said or not, it just didn't register how good they were as there was no frame of reference. To those of us who can properly drive, this epiphany is immediate upon acceleration and then your first cornering. Myself, I'm still working on that skill.

The instant acceleration is obviously a big draw, but I actually find that the lightbulb goes off for ‘drivers’ the moment they take their foot off the accelerator on its way to the brake and regen kicks in. Their foot never gets to the brake, but the epiphany immediately shows on their face: OMG! One pedal driving?!

 

[Mengy]

You really want to sell and miss out on the upcoming stock dividend and Bill Gates forced covering?

Uh, I never said anything about SELLING Tesla shares, but rather holding off on buying MORE shares until after Q2 earnings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Exactly, a half a billion short means losing half a billion if SP doubles

THAT assumes Bates is short via equity. If he's short via derivatives, then leverage comes into play. A doublling of SP could easily wipe out $10B in margin. Gill don't have that kind of cash. It'll be margin call time, and hopefully the word gets out (you know, to discourage the others)