Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Re: Elon selling Tesla to pay for Twitter - I thought he had to plan his purchases / sales of Tesla stock well in advance to avoid any insider trading concerns, so it seems unlikely that he'd be able to move that fast after the plan was approved by Twitter board, and if it really isn't going to finalize until end of year, no need to dump stock now. Seems more likely someone is big mad and getting out, or getting in (shorting)?

Planned sales help in regards to non public material information (NPMI) concerns, but they are not required. Elon had planned and unplanned sales last year.

 

[oldTAVguy]

He almost looked scared saying "We plan to challenge Tesla....." In fact, he looked scared during his entire speech.

Where is the whole speech?

 

[UkNorthampton]

If you can't fathom what Wall Street is "thinking" today, just take a look at this chart. The little blue dots are their "reality", green is what's actually happening on planet Earth in 2022. Where is that next green dot?

View attachment 797769

Is it helped much by having very little debt left? I suspect improvements from Tesla all round, every quarter. Reduction of interest/loan payments is a part of it.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

We will find out how that deal is being financed by Friday. They have 4 days to file the relevant form to the SEC. So we'll know for certain if our TSLA shares are Moon or Doom on next Monday.

I still don't really believe Elon will sell shares of TSLA to finance this deal, as it goes against everything else he has ever said about his TSLA. Even the selling last year was simply to pay off taxes on his exercised options and he had more net shares at the end of that saga.

I'm always happy to be wrong but this is 100% exactly the same as what happened that first day of the Much Has Been Made Of Saga.

(Mod-Edited via italics, as clarified in a further post) In MY opinion Elon is selling, and this time he has up to $21 billion of shares he needs to unload. Best time is now right into the teeth of an oncoming recession I guess. At least this time we know what's going to happen. Elon prepared us for this latest round in the pain handbox last year.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm always happy to be wrong but this is 100% exactly the same as what happened that first day of the Much Has Been Made Of Saga.

(Mod-Edited via italics, as clarified in a further post) In MY opinion Elon is selling, and this time he has up to $21 billion of shares he needs to unload. Best time is now right into the teeth of an oncoming recession I guess. At least this time we know what's going to happen. Elon prepared us for this latest round in the pain handbox last year.

If so it will be hard to take him at his word in the future.

 

[Krugerrand]

The selling will continue until morale improves.

I’m as ******* happy as a clam ******* ****** ** *** ***! So, yeah. Cheerio!

 

[mongo]

Isn't the 21 billion the non-exclusively-Elon minority stake portion of the deal?
12.5 B off stock margin (Elon)
13 B in loans of various types (some bridge) (Elon)
21 B equity (4B Elon so far)
So 17B in other equity which can be accredited investors going private with the company. No need for Elon to own/ hold debt for the entire thing.
Even if the loans didn't count toward his ownership, he only needs another 6B (total 22.5B) to control > 50%.
He netted around that on last year's stock sale.

 

[SO16]

Interesting take…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518982919615881217

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If so it will be hard to take him at his word in the future.

Yes, the one thing I always believed was when he said he was first in, last out. I trusted him for a long time on his word and remained invested. If he can't be trusted with this then I will need to rethink just what I can trust with Elon.

 

[capster]

... Seems more likely someone is big mad and getting out, or getting in (shorting)?

Someone miffed at the Saudi PIF that Elon steamrolled their objection to his taking Twitter private? Perhaps they want to make the deal more costly for Elon and possibly disrupt it altogether.

I‘m somewhat skeptical that Elon is funding the whole deal himself or even selling much if anything now. There are plenty of billionaires that would probably support Elon’s objectives with Twitter, e.g Peter Thiel, and who might accept a poor return to help achieve them.

 

[Nocturnal]

Isn't the 21 billion the non-exclusively-Elon minority stake portion of the deal?
12.5 B off stock margin (Elon)
13 B in loans of various types (some bridge) (Elon)
21 B equity (4B Elon so far)
So 17B in other equity which can be accredited investors going private with the company. No need for Elon to own/ hold debt for the entire thing.
Even if the loans didn't count toward his ownership, he only needs another 6B (total 22.5B) to control > 50%.
He netted around that on last year's stock sale.

But he donated something like 5.7billion to a mystery charity so his cash on had can't be all that high.

Edit, my mistake. He donated stock, not cash.

Yes, the one thing I always believed was when he said he was first in, last out. I trusted him for a long time on his word and remained invested. If he can't be trusted with this then I will need to rethink just what I can trust with Elon.

Gave him a pass on the little bit of extra selling after the infamous poll, probably helped that we were down from an amazing ATH. If he pulled the same thing again...

 

[Krugerrand]

If Shanghai factory is not affected by China lockdowns this dip is unreasonable. Q1 annualized p/e is only 78. Can't believe we are here already.

Disagree strongly. The dip is unreasonable regardless of a lockdown in Shanghai that’s been over for a week already.

Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on Austin and Berlin ramping. Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on the strong financial position Tesla is in. Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on the excessive demand issue.

 

[juanmedina]

Can he finance his Twitter purchase through SpaceX instead? I am being selfish here

 

[Knightshade]

Interesting take…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518982919615881217

Discussed earlier- Elon can not borrow more than 25% of the value of his TSLA shares (value, NOT #)

Hence his "margin call" for that limit would potentially come much sooner than an LTV margin call might.

 

[Tommy O]

Yes, the one thing I always believed was when he said he was first in, last out. I trusted him for a long time on his word and remained invested. If he can't be trusted with this then I will need to rethink just what I can trust with Elon.

I think it’s safe to assume you can trust monstrous earnings growth, even if he sells.

 

[wws]

He almost looked scared saying "We plan to challenge Tesla....." In fact, he looked scared during his entire speech.

He (and GM and Rivian) know they have about a year before the "alien dreadnought" starts pumping out Cybertrucks by the hundreds of thousands. Mucho truck market disruption ahead.

 

[2daMoon]

Disagree strongly. The dip is unreasonable regardless of a lockdown in Shanghai that’s been over for a week already.

Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on Austin and Berlin ramping. Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on the strong financial position Tesla is in. Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on the excessive demand issue.

So, it IS all about the bearings, or lack thereof.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess the SEC is super pissed at Elon still by not halting $TSLA today...... Keep your heads up all....today will seem like a gift in a few weeks, or a few years...

 

[jkirkwood001]

He (and GM and Rivian) know they have about a year before the "alien dreadnought" starts pumping out Cybertrucks by the hundreds of thousands. Mucho truck market disruption ahead.

Did you see that 'robot conveyor' speed (@40 sec)? How the heck are they ever going to scale this past niche volumes??

The difference to Tesla manufacturing is like night and day.

Oh and big wow on the Giga Berlin imitation drone factory fly-through (I think that's cobbled together handheld footage).

 

[JRP3]

Shanghai lockdown has no bearing on Austin and Berlin ramping.

Just speculating but if they require some parts from China which are held up because of the ongoing lockdowns even outside of Shanghai it might cause delays.