Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

Yeah, a form 4-- Form 4 must be filed within two business days following the transaction date

Thought I'd take a look back at the last year of Elon's Form 4 filings to put something useful together:



Elon filed a Form 4 a total of 35 times in the last 12 months. Of those 35, 26 of them (74%) were filed the same day as the trade. 7 (20%) were filed the day after the trade. 2 (6%) were filed two days after the trade.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA is a heavily manipulated stock. Things usually do not make sense when it comes to the TSLA stock price. Just the thought that Elon is selling is being used to bring the stock down. Does not mean he is selling. "They" will use anything they can to drive the stock down and to cap any attempt at recovery.

Yeah, when they shove their pink-faced poster-buoy on CNBC frothing the words 'egregious valuation ', you know the bigs have burned a crapton of cash betting against TSLA.

Let'em burn.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If Tesla stays in the $900-1200 range it’s PE will probably go under 50 next year.

I expect about $14b in earnings this year and a little over $20 next year.

Exactly. If Tesla stayed at 900 all next year, you're talking about a P/E ratio of around 30-35. If Tesla is at 1200 throughout the year, P/E of around 47.

And that's with me being conservative on 2023 EPS and Q4 2022 EPS that will lead into 2023.

 

[Dutchie]

Um, yeah, Tesla was decimated yesterday.

"Deci" = 10%

Deci = 1/10 so it would be 1/10 current stock price…

 

[lascavarian]

Seems the court has not ruled in EM’s favor in his attempt to have the court vacate his SEC agreement. Seems that public square selling survey did not impress the judge.

Anyone know if this decision can be appealed?

 

[Mengy]

If Tesla stays in the $900-1200 range it’s PE will probably go under 50 next year.

I expect about $14b in earnings this year and a little over $20 next year.

I know that's what most people here believe. I have a feeling supply constraints will keep Tesla's growth very close to 50%-60% and not allow much more for the next year or two. I also think the 4680 ramp will be slower than most think it will, and the CT production start will be at the end of 2023 and not sooner.

EoY 2024 I think we'll have revenues of $194 billion, EPS of about $25 per share, a PE ratio around 50, and a share price of about $1300.

I know it's less than most here are expecting for 2024. I hope I'm very wrong, but my gut feeling is Wall Street is going to hold us down for awhile longer, for as long as they can.

 

[heltok]

It's tricky, because on one hand I don't want to hear anyone's personal politics (not here), but on the other hand Elon jumping head first into the toxic sludge of 2020 era US politics has major impacts on TSLA. Not just from the consumer side of things either. Politicians are petty and spiteful after all.

I have an opinion and a suggestion on most things, but I have no idea how you moderate that.

Imo this thread should allow people posting major Elon tweets that might stir up anti Elon sentiment which is relevant for TSLA. But then the following discussion about the tweet can happen in the relevant thread. Maybe together with each tweet we can also link the relevant thread for replies.

 

[woodisgood]

I know that's what most people here believe. I have a feeling supply constraints will keep Tesla's growth very close to 50%-60% and not allow much more for the next year or two. I also think the 4680 ramp will be slower than most think it will, and the CT production start will be at the end of 2023 and not sooner.

EoY 2024 I think we'll have revenues of $194 billion, EPS of about $25 per share, a PE ratio around 50, and a share price of about $1300.

I know it's less than most here are expecting for 2024. I hope I'm very wrong, but my gut feeling is Wall Street is going to hold us down for awhile longer, for as long as they can.

I tend to agree with you, but there are upside surprises in that timeframe that may completely upend those plans. Namely FSD and Optimus. There may be information on both of those fronts that will force some to start modeling future financial impact.

 

[growler23]

Deci = 1/10 so it would be 1/10 current stock price…

Correct (and huzzah Latin!) but I believe the common usage in military settings is a 10% reduction in one's force.
Ex: I fully expect Tesla to far more than decimate Ford and GM in terms of their market share in 2023.

Having the word mean "reducing by 90%" would make the term egregiously overvalued (see what I did there)?

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

If Tesla stays in the $900-1200 range it’s PE will probably go under 50 next year.

I expect about $14b in earnings this year and a little over $20 next year.

$17B+ this year
+ CT ramp faster that expected (what areas weren't shown at Texas!?)
also expecting some other vehicle announced soonish (besides the dedicated transport taxi) along with the other 3 vehicles next year.

isn't FTM PE already under 50?

in my mind it all makes sense. waiting for GM & Ford to be 'first' is also probably a good thing. what if the EV side of their business actually boosts TSLA for a change someday?

 

[Nocturnal]

I tend to agree with you, but there are upside surprises in that timeframe that may completely upend those plans. Namely FSD and Optimus. There may be information on both of those fronts that will force some to start modeling future financial impact.

I don't see gains from those two sources over the next two years as very realistic. WS won't care about taxis until the revenue is pouring in, even if Tesla cracks it they won't believe/care.

 

[2daMoon]

Truth! Not ‘my’ truth, but Universal truth.

I've always considered "truth" a variable. Nobody has to agree for something to be true for someone.

Facts, on the other hand, are something that multiple people agree upon and can be proven repeatedly.

Generally speaking, a lot of people get those concepts confused.


Truth is, HODLing TSLA can make you rich. That's a fact!

 

[MadScientist23]

Thought I'd take a look back at the last year of Elon's Form 4 filings to put something useful together:

View attachment 798161

Elon filed a Form 4 a total of 35 times in the last 12 months. Of those 35, 26 of them (74%) were filed the same day as the trade. 7 (20%) were filed the day after the trade. 2 (6%) were filed two days after the trade.

very interesting, good thought and this indicates that it's unlikely he sold without seeing a form 4 by EOB today

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I know that's what most people here believe. I have a feeling supply constraints will keep Tesla's growth very close to 50%-60% and not allow much more for the next year or two. I also think the 4680 ramp will be slower than most think it will, and the CT production start will be at the end of 2023 and not sooner.

EoY 2024 I think we'll have revenues of $194 billion, EPS of about $25 per share, a PE ratio around 50, and a share price of about $1300.

I know it's less than most here are expecting for 2024. I hope I'm very wrong, but my gut feeling is Wall Street is going to hold us down for awhile longer, for as long as they can.

I don't know how you're getting those numbers when it comes to EPS, especially after the most recent earnings. Your math simply doesn't add up. I don't think anyone here is thinking anything higher than 50-60% revenue growth is needed to achieve $25 EPS for 2023, not 2024.

Tesla printed a $2.86 GAAP EPS for Q1. They'll likely repeat that for Q2. Then Q3/Q4 will jump to $3.5-4 GAAP EPS, Q4 will be above $4. That's over $13 GAAP EPS for 2022. If you've been following how Tesla executes on operational leverage, then it becomes very clear and pretty easy to see that Tesla will print over $25 GAAP for 2023........even if revenue growth is only 50-60% for 2023.

Operational leverage has been demonstrated time and time again. Especially over the past 6 straight quarterly earnings. Not sure how you think Tesla will only do $25 EPS GAAP for 2024 when Tesla will be executing on operational leverage of 2 new factories plus expansion of the other 2.

Tesla grew revenues 76% in 2021. They grew earnings 665%. Guess what the revenue/earnings ratio was for Q1 2022 over Q1 2021? Revenue growth 80%, earnings growth 657%. Yes the earnings growth will slow down but earnings are going to continue to growth 3X revenue for the next couple years before earnings growth trails to only 2X revenue growth 3-5 years out.

 

[woodisgood]

I don't see gains from those two sources over the next two years as very realistic. WS won't care about taxis until the revenue is pouring in, even if Tesla cracks it they won't believe/care.

I agree I wouldn’t place large bets on it, and my perception of Wall St. intentions for the stock make me a little nervous about the portion of my portfolio in 2024 LEAPs. But I also don’t think the scenario proposed by Mengy is a certainty either.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Thank you @colettimj (link) and @Usain (link) for pulling together the Supercharger numbers to confirm my suspicion that that roll out of additional superchargers isn't really accelerating (yet). Hopefully this will change as EVs are becoming more accepted by people/governments each day. Tesla cant build a new SuC location if the property owners don't allow them.

Thank you @The Accountant (link) and @JusRelax (link) for highlighting how much Wall Street and some research firms have ZERO insight on how much Tesla is going to grow. 2 new GigaFactories come online and WS raises their EPS by $0.08 (to $2.34) for Q2'22 after they got blown out of their estimates for Q1'22

View attachment 796103

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519382189942743043

Earnings and deliveries estimate increasing.

Interesting that he says that he says earnings is going up because the yahoo estimate went down from 2.34 (quoted above) to $2.28

 

[TNEVol]

Seems the court has not ruled in EM’s favor in his attempt to have the court vacate his SEC agreement. Seems that public square selling survey did not impress the judge.

Anyone know if this decision can be appealed?

Just about any decision can be appealed but being successful above the trial level would be unlikely. Agreed orders will normally not be disturbed except for limited reasons like illegality. The theory is you are bound by your agreement even if you agreed to do things the other party didn't have the power to require. In this context it appears Elon agreed to certain restrictions on his free speech that the SEC could not have done without his agreement. As I recall this has already been before the judge to clarify the original agreement where EM was successful. This is different because he is asking to get out of the agreement.
Please don't misunderstand, the above is not my desire. As some of you may recall I looked at the possibility of intervention on Elon's behalf in the original case and some TMC members offered to assist. An additional caveat I have not personally examined the pleading or the order I am just responding to the question above.

 

[Drumheller]

Because it’s not about Tesla anymore than it’s about you. It’s not Elon’s fault everyone else is dumber than a stump and can’t separate Tesla the business from its CEO doing something that he feels is important to fix - free speech platform.

I don’t have an issue with him having multiple causes on his plate because in the end it’s all connected anyway. I do wish people were smarter, though. And less emotional. And less opinionated. And well, just not most everything.

While I agree with your sentiment, I disagree about it not being about Tesla. If Elon is using his TSLA shares as leverage to buy Twitter, he just substantially increased his debt and gave his enemies a target share price to get TSLA to in order to margin call Elon Musk. If that happens, he may be forced to sell some of his TSLA stake and reduce his ownership, which would make a hostile takeover easier.

Sound far fetched? Look what Elon just did to Twitter.

 

[2daMoon]

Deci = 1/10 so it would be 1/10 current stock price…

dec•i•mate (ˈdɛs əˌmeɪt) v.t. -mat•ed, -mat•ing.
1. to destroy a great proportion of: Cholera decimated the population.
2. (esp. in ancient Rome) to select by lot and kill every tenth person of.
3. to take a tenth of or from.

Regarding the Incorrect Use of the Word "Decimate"

Which brings me full circle to something I was taught years ago, "Words don't have meanings, people have meanings for words."

I was using "decimate" in the traditional sense, meaning that TSLA SP was reduced by one in ten, or, ten percent.

YMMV (your meaning may vary)

 

[Nocturnal]

I agree I wouldn’t place large bets on it, and my perception of Wall St. intentions for the stock make me a little nervous about the portion of my portfolio in 2024 LEAPs. But I also don’t think the scenario proposed by Mengy is a certainty either.

I felt great about my leaps % until yesterday at close.