Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
sounds like things are going well at Giga Texas...

The article uses the word "deliberate" over and over. What is that supposed to mean? Is that just a euphemism for "slow"?

Or maybe the author thinks that they are being deliberate rather than making cars by accident?
 
The best explanation I read, and I think it was somewhere in this thread, is that if Elon is really putting that many shares up as collateral, and already has done it with the banks, then it could be the banks selling massive puts on those shares as a hedge. Ironic that their hedge pushed down the value of the asset being used for collateral (or maybe that was their point?).

But then again, perhaps Elon hasn't even put the collateral up yet, and it's all just fear selling. There's a LOT of fear in the market.
Short term, the share split should help.

Longer term good Q2, Q3 & Q4 results should help.

Improving Twitter and increasing the value of Twitter, will definitely help.

Twitter certainly is a challenge, in a crowded competitive market, but competitors like Facebook also have issues.
Mostly Twitter might benefit from more ambition and energy.
 
Longer term good Q2, Q3 & Q4 results should help.
Why? Q1 was the best in 10 years and nothing. I'm tired of looking foward to "fundamentals"....its all BS. I've read this statement from so many posters over the 10 years...."next quarter"...blah, blah, blah....

Yeah, I'm angry. I'm angry at Elon for fing this up. Can not believe he took the spot light away and made WS not care about it.
 
Just be aware that the act of stating that you hope you are very wrong will do nothing to mitigate the loss of respect I will have for you when your analysis turns out to be far more bearish than the reality that actually unfolds.

That's fine, I can deal with a lack of respect if I'm super rich! :D

I always temper my expectations with a bit of conservatism, that way if things go badly I'm prepared for it.
 
I don't see gains from those two sources over the next two years as very realistic. WS won't care about taxis until the revenue is pouring in, even if Tesla cracks it they won't believe/care.

I tend to agree with that but I don't think it's absolute. There are scenarios that could cause robotaxi and Optimus to begin to be reflected to some degree in the share price before visibility of their revenue streams actually materializes.

For example, if Tesla's automotive production continues to scale rapidly, and margins continue to grow to even more breath-taking levels, TSLA will astound and shock the analyst community and the financial media with what they had accomplished, more so if the energy side of the business grows and starts to show signs of becoming profitable too. If FSD also looks like it has nearly come together and/or Tesla has demonstrated Optimus version 1 that can walk and move around like a human (even if not ready for real work), I think investors will start to re-appraise their belief that a company cannot be that exceptional in so many ways.

While this scenario is more of a bull case and probably not the most likely scenario, I'm just pointing out that there is a potential path in which a large number of funds will be forced to admit that maybe Elon Musk is not as full of hot air as they assumed. In this scenario decide they can no longer avoid a position in TSLA due to the "options" it buys them on the future potential revenue streams of robotaxi and robots (which could be HUGE).

This is how markets work. Initially they are skeptical about everything but, if they are continually dazzled and proven wrong in a big way, there comes a point when investors decide they cannot completely discount everything the company says they will do. At least not discount those things to zero. Tesla could become a real darling of the investment community if they crush it in terms of manufacturing volumes with unbelievable margins while legacy auto continues to struggle, battery cell production ramps in multiple locations at high volumes and Tesla shows a nearly complete FSD that works really well in 99.9% of all driving situations (even if not ready for fully autonomous robotaxis). It's not out of the question. In my mind it's more aa matter of whether Elon Musk and team can continue to keep the pedal to the metal and keep hitting home runs.

I give it at least a 10% chance if not higher. I also think it's more likely than not that TSLA will be valued well over $1300 by the end of next year. If forced to guess I would say $1800-$2000 would be a good median guess and that the potential upside from there is greater than any downside from here.
 
That's fine, I can deal with a lack of respect if I'm super rich! :D

I always temper my expectations with a bit of conservatism, that way if things go badly I'm prepared for it.

I temper my expectations too, for the same reason. But I still have to come up with an analysis that I think best reflects the most likely scenario. I always understand that scenario is not a given. Which is why I always maintain two years of cash reserves so I can pay taxes, travel, etc. without being forced to sell stock at inopportune times. Because I know that the entire market can suck for at least that long (but I don't project that it will unless I see signs that it probably will).
 
Why? Q1 was the best in 10 years and nothing. I'm tired of looking foward to "fundamentals"....its all BS. I've read this statement from so many posters over the 10 years...."next quarter"...blah, blah, blah....

Yeah, I'm angry. I'm angry at Elon for fing this up. Can not believe he took the spot light away and made WS not care about it.
"I've read this statement from so many posters over the 10 years...."next quarter"...blah, blah, blah...."

Ummmm.........have you looked at the 10 year return for this stock?
 
Last edited:
Do you guys see the headline for FB? Their guide is trash and the stock pops 18%. Was bankruptcy priced in before earnings or I smell this entire bear market BS?


It’s algos, then more algos acting on the movement from those algos.
 
It’s algos, then more algos acting on the movement from those algos.
Algo actually doesn't trap themselves based on wrong information. I have seen large pops reverse itself pretty dramatically due to unexpected one time things. When AMD recognized their tax deferrement which caused a massive beat in EPS, stock popped and then crashed all within minutes.
 
dec•i•mate (ˈdɛs əˌmeɪt) v.t. -mat•ed, -mat•ing.
1. to destroy a great proportion of: Cholera decimated the population.
2. (esp. in ancient Rome) to select by lot and kill every tenth person of.
3. to take a tenth of or from.

Regarding the Incorrect Use of the Word "Decimate"

Which brings me full circle to something I was taught years ago, "Words don't have meanings, people have meanings for words."

I was using "decimate" in the traditional sense, meaning that TSLA SP was reduced by one in ten, or, ten percent.

YMMV (your meaning may vary)
Ok I stand corrected. It was also lost in translation as I have learned the litteral use from the Dutch word “Decimeren” meaning “Being 1/10 left”. Nowadays the Dutch also use that word if the loss is greater than 50%. “Decimeren” translates to ”decimate” and in English it appears to have a slight different meaning than the Dutch equivalent.

Never too old to learn…
 
The article uses the word "deliberate" over and over. What is that supposed to mean? Is that just a euphemism for "slow"?

Or maybe the author thinks that they are being deliberate rather than making cars by accident?
deliberate in delivering to employees only.
M3 had like 1500 test cars for employees(IIRC) and then it went out to the masses.

Some one posted that they got a Austin VIN a while back... anyone have more details to share on any Austin Y deliveries to actual customer?
 
Some one posted that they got a Austin VIN a while back... anyone have more details to share on any Austin Y deliveries to actual customer?

I think all of the claimed Austin VINs were proven to be fake. Especially because as far as we know right now, Austin is only making MY AWD for now, which is not yet available in the configurator.

And last update I saw from the employee delivered Austin vehicles, they're still running some engineering tests on them:
But we do have reports of car carriers full of MY leaving Austin: Tesla Giga Texas continues deliberate Model Y ramp, hints at upcoming delivery volumes So maybe they're staging MY AWD at delivery centers for customer deliveries soon? Or maybe just delivery to employees outside of Texas.