Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nolimits]

Looks like ford and gm earnings outlook didn’t look too great. Cutting jobs and trying to catch up to teslas margins. I vaguely recall auntie Cathie mentioned last quarter that she was expecting slowdowns in traditional auto sales bc of increasing ev (tesla) demand and not chip issue. Anyone catch in their earnings that is truly the case?

 

[Singuy]

Reopening plans in the works as Shanghai Covid-19 cases hit 24-day low

New Covid-19 cases in Shanghai fell 21.7 per cent, and officials said the government is working on plans for restarting manufacturing, public transport, and retail in the mainland’s financial capital.

www.scmp.com

 

[Xepa777]

What does Twitter have to do with sustainable energy? This is Elon's ego getting in the way.

What does SpaceX have to do with sustainable energy? This is Elons ego getting in the way.

It’s about creating the world you want your children to live in. That’s what Elon is doing. And many, including me, support him 100%.

 

[Buckminster]

So if Elon doesn't file an SEC doc within the next few hours to say he sold shares on Tuesday am (48 hours is the law), then SP goes back to where it was (~$1000) right?
Right?

 

[Criscmt]

yes, but but there's no limit on what portion of his holdings he can pledge. Theoretically he can pledge all his holdings. He's pledging only a fraction of it for the margin loan.

If you look at the deal docs, it says he can post additional collateral if the stock price drops. he would not have to liquidate. That is my point.

Apparently, there's only ~84M shares he has un-pledged at this time. That would be the max he can pledge.

 

[lascavarian]

So if Elon doesn't file an SEC doc within the next few hours to say he sold shares on Tuesday am (48 hours is the law), then SP goes back to where it was (~$1000) right?
Right?

Interesting. Then the question becomes who did sell or hedge?

I had thought that there might have been a leak of the SEC case ruling and the implications of that loss on the TWTR takeover. That is not a simple explanation however so likely incorrect.

Perhaps it was PIF selling. No love lost there.

 

[deshkart]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519277907432124417

This person seems to have an impressive resume and I am seeing this from multiple ppl on my twitter feed. While I see other side claiming that inflation will go on forever. Also, he provides a data point to ponder on. Lets see how all of this turns out.

I think many of the insane price increases in commodities are pure speculation rather than real demand supply issues which was also confirmed by Tesla in Q1 call. If there is no actual demand, what happens to inflated commodity prices? once commodities go down, Inflation has to go down. Once inflation goes down, Fed will back off from raising rates and money will come back to growth stocks. Just like we had "Inflation is out of control" narrative last year, We may see exact opposite of that in the coming months with money flowing to well deserved growth companies like TSLA rather than KO trading at 29 PE and COST trading at 50 PE. Next few months will be fascinating to watch. Grab a big bag of popcorn.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Apparently, there's only ~84M shares he has un-pledged at this time. That would be the max he can pledge.

which would be like twice as many as he needs... so... yeah

 

[aubreymcfato]

Duct tape.

This is CENSORSHIP.
FREE SPEECH!1!!

(sorry, bad joke, but I had to vent)

 

[WarpedOne]

So if Elon doesn't file an SEC doc within the next few hours to say he sold shares on Tuesday am (48 hours is the law), then SP goes back to where it was (~$1000) right?
Right?

No, it dumps another 10%.
And repeats this every 2 days until the form is filled.
When it again dumps another 20% because elon sold.

Don't look for rationality where there is none.

 

[WarpedOne]

Really? We have a ‘right’ to lie? I have the ‘right’ to tell lies about you, for example, as long as I present it as my truth?

And that right there is why we need to be saved from ourselves.

One cannot become less wrong without accepting that he is wrong.

 

[RobStark]

 

[jerry33]

Why? Q1 was the best in 10 years and nothing. I'm tired of looking foward to "fundamentals"....its all BS. I've read this statement from so many posters over the 10 years...."next quarter"...blah, blah, blah....

Yeah, I'm angry. I'm angry at Elon for fing this up. Can not believe he took the spot light away and made WS not care about it.

Wall Street wasn't going to care about it anyway. The only time they "care" is when there is a squeeze. WS is just too tied into the fossil fuel industry and will be until the collapse.

 

[Budding]

Apparently, there's only ~84M shares he has un-pledged at this time. That would be the max he can pledge.

Maybe some more of our resident financial experts can pitch in.. but it seems that if Elon sold to generate cash for the 21B portion of the bid, it would cause the SP to crash and that would make it difficult for him to get the margin loan because he only has 84M unplugged shares. You can imagine some players could drive the price down further in such a scenario to block him from taking over Twitter.

 

[The Accountant]

Looks like ford and gm earnings outlook didn’t look too great. Cutting jobs and trying to catch up to teslas margins. I vaguely recall auntie Cathie mentioned last quarter that she was expecting slowdowns in traditional auto sales bc of increasing ev (tesla) demand and not chip issue. Anyone catch in their earnings that is truly the case?

GM's & Ford's market shares are down from a year ago. They're going to continue blaming chips until they can't . . . .and then later they will blame lack of batteries. I expect sometime in the next 2 years, Ford and GM will record multi-billion dollar restructuring charges to write-off stranded assets related to ICE production.

From their investor presentations:

GM Global Market Share:
Q1 2021 Market Share 8.1%
Q1 2022 Market Share 7.3%

Ford Global Market Share:
Q1 2021 Market Share 5.3%
Q1 2022 Market Share 4.8%

 

[Usain]

Austin is only making MY AWD for now, which is not yet available in the configurator.

I think that once employee deliveries are satisfied, they will start selling the MY AWD from inventory.

It won't go on the configurator until Tesla is confident in their ability to scale the 4680. Once that happens, we are off to the races!

 

[Nocturnal]

What does SpaceX have to do with sustainable energy? This is Elons ego getting in the way.

It’s about creating the world you want your children to live in. That’s what Elon is doing. And many, including me, support him 100%.

Elon's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable humanity.

I think many of the insane price increases in commodities are pure speculation rather than real demand supply issues which was also confirmed by Tesla in Q1 call. If there is no actual demand, what happens to inflated commodity prices? once commodities go down, Inflation has to go down.

This is my belief. Our current inflation is not primarily driven by money supply, but by lack of material/product supply. Can't build enough cars? Prices get bid up. That's not what we think about when we hear inflation.

If our government(s) were competent they would have been focusing on easing that supply. If only.

 

[ZachF]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519277907432124417

This person seems to have an impressive resume and I am seeing this from multiple ppl on my twitter feed. While I see other side claiming that inflation will go on forever. Also, he provides a data point to ponder on. Lets see how all of this turns out.

I think many of the insane price increases in commodities are pure speculation rather than real demand supply issues which was also confirmed by Tesla in Q1 call. If there is no actual demand, what happens to inflated commodity prices? once commodities go down, Inflation has to go down. Once inflation goes down, Fed will back off from raising rates and money will come back to growth stocks. Just like we had "Inflation is out of control" narrative last year, We may see exact opposite of that in the coming months with money flowing to well deserved growth companies like TSLA rather than KO trading at 29 PE and COST trading at 50 PE. Next few months will be fascinating to watch. Grab a big bag of popcorn.

The euro and yen are getting hammered.

It’s pretty amazing how fast Europe and Japan are declining in economic power…

 

[Usain]

The euro and yen are getting hammered.

It’s pretty amazing how fast Europe and Japan are declining in economic power…

For Europe, I think this will turn around in a few years. The war has accelerated their switch to sustainable energy. The future belongs to those with the cheapest energy cost.

 

[StealthP3D]

For Europe, I think this will turn around in a few years. The war has accelerated their switch to sustainable energy. The future belongs to those with the cheapest energy cost.

It's not just the cheapest energy, it's how much you need. And Europe is considerably more efficient than the US and Canada.