Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Motor Mouth]

Glad today’s sale appears to be somewhat temporary so at least I can feel like less of a…what did @Ohmster call it…dork for my 888 buy on Tuesday.

Hilariously, I made the very same trade, to the penny. (good luck?) Don't worry - all will be well in time whether we buy at $888, $800, or $1,000.

 

[StealthP3D]

This macro environment is such a high wire act for even the "best" companies and TSLA had navigated it brilliantly until this week IMO. I'm not sure he could have picked a worse time to test the market with this deal and levering up. I swear my opinion is not at all influenced by my massively underwater short puts

In all seriousness, what a slap in the face for TSLA employees w/ their RSUs/options, they've been killing it lately only to get whipsawed because papa got bored with just 4 companies.

That's not how options work. They don't expire just because the share price had a blip!

But this does help lower the price at which new employees get vested which means they can create a lot more value as the share price climbs through this year and into next year. This can reduce wage pressures on the company as employees learn just how quickly the options can become valuable. It can also help Tesla attract even more top talent.

In other words, volatility can be very profitable for employees. I can't figure out why there is so much teeth-gnashing simply because Elon wants to acquire another company. The problem is not Elon, it's all the ignorant investors/traders/options players/media pundits that think this creates uncertainty for Tesla. Remember, Tesla is like Elon's baby, he wants it to be wildly successful even more than you do so he's not going to do anything to actually hurt his baby.

 

[bubb]

Public service announcement for the crybabies whining as if Elon had broken some kind of implied agreement to avoid behavior that promotes TSLA volatility.

Please recall his very clear statement from the most legendary earnings call in Tesla's history, Q1 2018:

​

"People get too focused on, like, what's happening in the space of a few weeks or a few months. This is an old maxim of investing; you should not be focused on short-term things; you should be focused on long-term things. We have no interest in satisfying the desires of day traders. I couldn't care less. Please sell our stock and don't buy it.​

...​

I think that if people are concerned about volatility, they should definitely not buy our stock. I'm not here to convince you to buy our stock. Do not buy it if volatility is scary. There you go."​

Typical love-it-or-leave-it insults when SP massively tanks and people have concerns to discuss . That was a TSLA earnings call, i.e. in the TSLA context, and I assure you TSLA is not down ~20% in a week entirely because of TSLA operational issues or macro/beta. Unless he comes up with a sizable set of equity partners alongside his massive margining of shares, he will be trading $-for-$ TSLA for TWTR and the market is pricing in all the implications of that, plain and simple.

 

[woodisgood]

Definitely not out of the woods. Clear capping and selling pressure started the moment TSLA got close to green and now it's detached from the Nasdaq yet again, being driven further down compared to the Nasdaq continuing to climb. You can always see their "calling card" in the chart. Stock makes a distinct peak followed by a rapid drop and then a flattening of the stock action afterwards. If Apple/Amazon disappoint the market, probably another rough day for the stock.

If you had asked me within the first 2-3 hours of trading on Tuesday, I would have said the trading looked like it could be Elon selling. Watching the trading action since though tells me it's a bear raid. The stock was capped multiple times yesterday around 910 and TSLA detaching from the Nasdaq as soon as it flirted with green today tells me there's continuing market shenanigans.

So now I'm firmly on the side that this is a huge bear raid. We'll find out tonight

I agree there may be a bear raid component but the way it broke through -10% on Tuesday despite their trying to hold it just above makes me think there’s also a whale unloading. Bear raid could be coordinated with that, e.g. a ‘tute trying to upend TWTR deal.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree there may be a bear raid component but the way it broke through -10% on Tuesday despite their trying to hold it just above makes me think there’s also a whale unloading. Bear raid could be coordinated with that, e.g. a ‘tute trying to upend TWTR deal.

Not really, the stock selling pressure stopped abruptly on Tuesday right before hitting the 10% limit. Literally within pennies. Then when the macro's took a nosedive, that took TSLA lower than 10%.

Once it broke 10%, they simply let the macro's drive it lower. Probably some naked shorting mixed in since the 10% rule doesn't apply to naked shorting.

 

[wipster]

Wow that was a pretty precipitous drop this MMD. Since I just got up, I think I need some of Elon's new/old Coke (3.5 grams of cocaine included!) to wake up! Probably only $500 a can...

 

[Gigapress]

Typical love-it-or-leave-it insults when SP massively tanks and people have concerns to discuss . That was a TSLA earnings call, i.e. in the TSLA context, and I assure you TSLA is not down ~25% in a week entirely because of TSLA operational issues or macro/beta. Unless he comes up with a sizable set of equity partners alongside his massive margining of shares, he will be trading $-for-$ TSLA for TWTR and the market is pricing in all the implications of that, plain and simple.

If an investor believes this has nothing to do with Tesla itself and is thus an artificial temporary dip, the rational response is to buy more shares, or increase leverage via margin and/or calls to profit on the expected upswing.

The crybaby reaction would be to complain about yet another Elon-driven TSLA drop even though 4 years ago we were explicitly warned by Elon himself that this would keep happening and he couldn't care less.

 

[larmor]

I know nothing, bugger-all, but I disagree completely with the folks claiming this $TSLA dump is from Elon selling stock, at least not for Twitter acquisition - he did have some other options to exercise still, right, but quite some still before expiry

Apply first principles:
- Twitter deal isn't closing until later in the year, why sell stock now?
- Given the long lead time, if stock was sold, it would be done gradually, over a long period, so as not to kill the price
- Absolutely no reason to sell on the open market, plenty of time to broker some dark pool type of deals

Can anyone give a compelling reason why Elon would be selling now?

I think this is a coordinated short-bear attack, which is supported by the stock price stabilising while the uptick rule was in place

Someone wants in before the stock split and tsla is always volatile to headlines. Except now the only headlines are increasing revenues and more factories. So the 'twitter' acquisition makes for a nice story for people to spin and get in at the price they want. Remember EM's buying of twitter is analogous to one of us getting a small car or go kart or dual suspension mountain bike, for fun.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

No idea if it's Elon or banks or the man in the moon, but there is massive TSLA selling going on related to financing the Twitter purchase.

I'm totally fine with this, Elon can do what he likes, just sayin this might have been to launch to 1400 day if TWTR we're in the background and shoveling additional float into the market.

 

[wtlloyd]

How many shares did you pick up? Any one here buy today? Pretty quiet.

90 @ $829. Pretty happy with that. A timely inheritance indeed.

 

[ggies07]

I find it hilarious how all of this is to "save" free speech.

Those that control the Repbulican party do not care anymore about democracy. Their voters in turn do not care about facts.

False information will spread like wildfire once again because it's not what is said, but how many times and how loud it is said.

Is this how democracy dies? From a Billionaire who thinks he can solve online free speech?

And some of you think those right-wing voters will start to buy EVs because of this? hahaha. My in-laws will still give two about it. They will just be happy Elon's "doing the right thing".

 

[betstarship]

I bought some RIVN as a replacement to anything left that was non-EV and mutual funds. Kinda feel dirty. It wasn't Tesla at these prices.

 

[elasalle]

So do we find out if Elon sold post Twitter purchase today?

Outsiders - yes .
Insiders - maybe they already know

 

[bubb]

If an investor believes this has nothing to do with Tesla itself and is thus an artificial temporary dip, the rational response is to buy more shares, or increase leverage via margin and/or calls to profit on the expected upswing.

The crybaby reaction would be to complain about yet another Elon-driven TSLA drop even though 4 years ago we were explicitly warned by Elon himself that this would keep happening and he couldn't care less.

Like it or not the market has decided he is expanding his *personal* mission, with no boundaries apparent at this point, and it could happen at the cost of him leveraging and/or distributing tens of billions in TSLA shares. I personally think a dollar in TSLA is worth a hell of a lot more than one in TWTR. This is a potential material change from past behavior. I'm not crying, I'm here to discuss and find insights in how to manage my very bullish positions through the storm. What are you here for, other than calling open discussion childish names?

 

[GrandEnigma]

Outsiders - yes .
Insiders - maybe they already know

What do you mean? The market is free and fair. We all trade on the same information.

 

[Mengy]

I bought 100 on Tuesday. Too early I guess.

Not if you are thinking long term.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Like it or not the market has decided he is expanding his *personal* mission, with no boundaries apparent at this point, and it could happen at the cost of him leveraging and/or distributing tens of billions in TSLA shares. I'm not crying, I'm here to discuss and find insights in how to manage my very bullish positions through the storm. What are you here for, other than calling open discussion childish names?

What is there to manage though?

It's pretty simple if you ask me. The stock could go down another 5-15% from here (it was down 5% from it's current price alone) based on fear and/or a worsening of the macro markets.

On the other side, we had earnings literally 7 days ago that showed exactly what's in store for Tesla's earnings for this year. Like crystal clear. We also know that pretty much barring a depression, Tesla's demand for 2022 and 2023 is firmly intact.

We can pretty much bank of Tesla doing GAAP EPS of $13+ for 2022 ( $2.86 Q1, $2.86 Q2, $3.50 Q3, $4.00 Q4) - These numbers could turn out to be conservative. If you think the market is going to end the year trading TSLA at a TTM PE of 50-60, then you shouldn't buy here.

If you think that logic and fundamentals win out which would give TSLA a TTM PE of at least 100, that GAAP EPS of $13 is still too conservative, and that Q4's EPS would prove that 2023 GAAP EPS will be $25+, then you're getting a crazy discount right now.

Oh and there's this thing called a stock split coming up over the summer.

Make your choices. If you're leveraging up here, then you better make sure that you're safe from a 15%, possibly 20% drop.

 

[ZachF]

I find it hilarious how all of this is to "save" free speech.

The Repbulican party does not care anymore about democracy. Their voters in turn do not care about facts.

False information will spread like wildfire once again because it's not what is said, but how many times and how loud it is said.

Is this how democracy dies? From a Billionaire who thinks he can solve online free speech?

And some of you think those right-wing voters will start to buy EVs because of this? hahaha. My in-laws will still give two sh*ts about it. They will just be happy Elon's "doing the right thing".

The ultimate irony in this is that Elon’s move for Twitter neutrality is going to likely benefit the left the most.

Twitter and social media signal boosting far left crazies while censoring the right wing crazies is making the left look worse than it actually is to the middle, and contributing to apocalyptically bad polls for the democrats.

It’s not like the middle is going to listen to Qbot silliness about Sydney Powell’s Kraken and swoon.

Stop having so little faith in people. Free speech is ultimately what led to civil rights and environmentalism emerging in the first place. Without free speech these movements would’ve been snuffed out before they could begin.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The ultimate irony in this is that Elon’s move for Twitter neutrality is going to likely benefit the left the most.

Twitter and social media signal boosting far left crazies while censoring the right wing crazies is making the left look worse than it actually is to the middle, and contributing to apocalyptically bad polls for the democrats.

It’s not like the middle is going to listen to Qbot silliness about Sydney Powell’s Kraken and swoon.

Stop having so little faith in people. Free speech is ultimately what led to civil rights and environmentalism emerging in the first place. Without free speech these movements would’ve been snuffed out before they could begin.

The left needs to stop resisting this and lean in. IMO this will help.

I bet we'll be back to formal Victorian Era discourse inside a few decades!

Edit: I own a life-sized Obama in a Superman outfit cardboard cutout. For the record.

 

[Singuy]

Not really, the stock selling pressure stopped abruptly on Tuesday right before hitting the 10% limit. Literally within pennies. Then when the macro's took a nosedive, that took TSLA lower than 10%.

Once it broke 10%, they simply let the macro's drive it lower. Probably some naked shorting mixed in since the 10% rule doesn't apply to naked shorting.

Is this rally based on high or low volume for the entire indexes? That will give us a clue if this is a gigantic bull trap or not.