Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Guys! We're about to be green!

 

[EVMeister]

Think the colour, don't say it...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is this rally based on high or low volume for the entire indexes? That will give us a clue if this is a gigantic bull trap or not.

Pretty average volume on the Nasdaq so far. Then again, when it dumped on Tuesday down 4%, it wasn't really high volume either. I personally think we're in the "chop" of the waves right now.

 

[thx1139]

I found your comments helpful, thank-you for that. Yet I also find myself disagreeing with your premise, that Elon is 'backing' disinformation, or the spread thereof.

I think Elon is fundamentally a scientist by nature, and he follows the evidence. The 'evidence' is that (who some would call) "low-information voters" were not (and likely never would) switch to EVs at the pace required to avert climate disaster.

Elon's pragmatic move? Align with their politics, emphasizing their 'right-to-be-heard' (many just parrot what they've been told anyway). But in doing so, it disarms a key psychological barrier to even considering an EV, that is the need for 'Group Indentity'. BTW, those drag racers campaigning their Plaid Model S in Baja Alabama are doing more for the cause than we are, collectively).

So, to tell them something new, first we have to be heard. And to be heard, first we have to listen. But that doesn't mean eating a *sugar* based diet.

In a land of free-will, we ultimately have to trust the people to make the right choice, and live with the consequences.

Cheers!

Yes I do think Elon as a scientist believes in evidence. Unfortunately we live in a country where 70% of Republicans now believe the 2020 election was stolen. Over 57% believe that January 6th was patriotism not insurrection. People arent believing in evidence.

 

[bubb]

What is there to manage though?

It's pretty simple if you ask me. The stock could go down another 5-10% from here (it was down 5% from it's current price alone) based on fear and/or a worsening of the macro markets.

On the other side, we had earnings literally 7 days ago that showed exactly what's in store for Tesla's earnings for this year. Like crystal clear. We also know that pretty much barring a depression, Tesla's demand for 2022 and 2023 is firmly intact.

We can pretty much bank of Tesla doing GAAP EPS of $13+ for 2022 ( $2.86 Q1, $2.86 Q2, $3.50 Q3, $4.00 Q 4) - These numbers could turn out to be conservative. If you think the market is going to end the year trading TSLA at a TTM PE of 50-60, then you shouldn't buy here.

If you think that logic and fundamentals win out which would give TSLA a TTM PE of at least 100, that GAAP EPS of $13 is still too conservative, and that Q4's EPS would prove that 2023 GAAP EPS will be $25+, then you're getting a crazy discount right now.

Oh and there's this thing called a stock split coming up over the summer.

Make your choices.

Fair enough! You probably won't like the answer, but it begins with 'o' and ends with 'ptions' Seriously though, it makes questions around the deal, potential share sales, and timing pretty important as I try to time assignment of hundreds of more shares. I'd love to buy more here, but my free cash is all secured against short puts at higher prices. No big deal, but I don't want to leave money on the table if I don't have to. Totally agree that your forecast could even be conservative, good times are ahead once this compression pauses or reverses.

We hardly see those clown sock puppet care bear accounts around here anymore. I think they are all in the poor house and we can afford to have open questions about possible downside risk around here. I think he'll ultimately win this battle, but he sure is swimming with sharks who are out for revenge between Wall Street, government, and the media who have all been humiliated by the survival and success of this company.

 

[Tyler34]

Guys! We're about to be green!

Thanks for stopping the rally

 

[ZachF]

This Raptor is us:

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Fair enough! You probably won't like the answer, but it begins with 'o' and ends with 'ptions' Seriously though, it makes questions around the deal, potential share sales, and timing pretty important as I try to time assignment of hundreds of more shares. I'd love to buy more here, but my free cash is all secured against short puts at higher prices. No big deal, but I don't want to leave money on the table if I don't have to. Totally agree that your forecast could even be conservative, good times are ahead once this compression pauses or reverses.

We hardly see those clown sock puppet care bear accounts around here anymore, I think they are all in the poor house and we can afford to have open questions about possible downside risk around here. I think he'll ultimately win this battle, but he sure is swimming with sharks who are out for revenge between Wall Street, government, and the media who have all been humiliated by the survival and success of this company.

Oh I'm very aware of options and hold quite a few myself. I would just point out that I was right in terms of Tesla execution and performance as a company........and yet my options play didn't turn out nearly as good as it "should" have turned out. I still came out well ahead. But I wasn't able to time the right time to sell my OTM LEAPS. Literally everytime we hit 1200, it was for a matter of a day before a steep sell off. Oh well lol

 

[ZachF]

I bought some RIVN as a replacement to anything left that was non-EV and mutual funds. Kinda feel dirty. It wasn't Tesla at these prices.

Honestly it’s dropped enough that I’m considering a little.

$28b in market cap with $18b in cash is…interesting.

 

[Gigapress]

Like it or not the market has decided he is expanding his *personal* mission, with no boundaries apparent at this point, and it could happen at the cost of him leveraging and/or distributing tens of billions in TSLA shares. I personally think a dollar in TSLA is worth a hell of a lot more than one in TWTR. This is a potential material change from past behavior. I'm not crying, I'm here to discuss and find insights in how to manage my very bullish positions through the storm. What are you here for, other than calling open discussion childish names?

I posted actual financial forecasts today and am wrapping up work on a Q1 analysis megapost. I'm here for useful information, community sharing analysis and fun.

We're currently seeing a flood of off-topic posts about politics, free speech, mobile chargers, complaints about how Elon is handling this, and opining on whether he should be buying Twitter in the first place. All things that have no bearing on pace of innovation which is all that matters in the long run. This has literally received more discussion and dissection on an investment forum than the Q1 earnings report which was the best ever on every level. Somehow the mods are benevolently permitting this to go on, despite giving many warnings to stop.

The only good reasons to even have concerns about a short term price drop are 1) if it's because of legitimately bad news or 2) if the investor has short term cash flow liquidity needs jeopardized by the drop. #1 has not happened here as far as I can tell and #2 would apply for TSLA only if the investor had ignored explicit guidance and historical data indicating to expect wild volatility. Additionally, Elon has exhibited a trend of expanding his personal mission for the last 30 years since he graduated college--and succeeding at it--so it should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention that he is doing it again. This is why I was dismissive of such concerns.

From an investment standpoint, the ideal scenario is objectively excellent news, such as the Q1 update, that is ignored or misinterpreted by the market. It's the definition of an arbitrage opportunity.

 

[betstarship]

Honestly it’s dropped enough that I’m considering a little.

$28b in market cap with $18b in cash is…interesting.

Ramping production too!

 

[aubreymcfato]

True, Tesla is much bigger than Elon. But every company needs a strong leader and I know of no other leader that could have navigated this company from low to high volume production as efficiently as Elon Musk and the team he has assembled and maintains. The share price went from $200-$400 up to it's current $4,100 per non-split adjusted share in less than the last 3 years. Anyone holding through the last three years has made a killing of 10x-20x and while it's due to the efforts of the entire team, do not under-estimate the contributions of the man guiding the process and making almost all the big strategic decisions.

I have no compassion for those complaining about Elon because they are so smart they are trading the stock or playing options and not getting the returns they hoped for. Go cry somewhere else.

Cheers to all TSLA longs who have held strong and will reap the benefits of the hard work and long hours of Elon and his entire team through this pandemic, right down to the janitors who maintain the factory and keep the lights on!

Personally I don't care about the stock movements of the last few days: I've been here since 2015-2016, long-term hodler and all that. And I'm with you regarding options and traders.

But many here - myself included - don't consider Tesla just a "normal" company, a simple mean to make a buck (and then some): we believe in the mission. Tesla is special for exactly this reason.
Right now, an argument can be made that Elon is hurting Tesla's mission with all his shenanigans.
Is it a weak argument? Maybe so, but then we should discuss (isn't also this "free speech" thing about the ability of debating and reasoning in public?).
The normal answer "then just sell your tsla" (which you actually didn't make) is quite a fallacy in imho, it doesn't answer anything and it's a way to make complainers shut up.

 

[WarpedOne]

There are legal standards for malicious or deceptive public statements. These fall under the categories of slander et al, incitement to violence, insurrection et al, false advertising, and various forms of crying fire in a crowded theatre (various forms of cyber bullying are a recent addition). These laws are very specific, and carry a high threshold concerning both effect and intent. Absent evidence that meets that standard, you are free to say anything in the public square. You have the right to be wrong in public.

What is the difference between being wrong and lying?
(Perceived) intent. Mind crime.

 

[woodisgood]

Personally I don't care about the stock movements of the last few days: I've been here since 2015-2016, long-term hodler and all that. And I'm with you regarding options and traders.

But many here - myself included - don't consider Tesla just a "normal" company, a simple mean to make a buck (and then some): we believe in the mission. Tesla is special for exactly this reason.
Right now, an argument can be made that Elon is hurting Tesla's mission with all his shenanigans.
Is it a weak argument? Maybe so, but then we should discuss (isn't also this "free speech" thing about the ability of debating and reasoning in public?).
The normal answer "then just sell your tsla" (which you actually didn't make) is quite a fallacy in imho, it doesn't answer anything and it's a way to make complainers shut up.

But you do see how Tesla’s mission (and SpaceX) will ultimately require speaking directly to people without interference from governments and other powerful corporate interests, right? I’m not talking about just transitioning to EVs…I’m talking about autonomy, Optimus, and Mars colonization. If there is no free and fair channel available on which Elon and these companies can discuss and debate the data and decision-making that will be required, show progress, and gather feedback on a large scale, the corporate media, lobbyist-controlled politicians, and disrupted competitors will make an absolute mess of these extremely grand and humanistic endeavors.

 

[Singuy]

Honestly it’s dropped enough that I’m considering a little.

$28b in market cap with $18b in cash is…interesting.

People consider cash burn rate when looking at high cash companies with little revenue. Nano Dimensions has 900M in cash but a market cap that's 700M and dropping. Shareholders literally would get a 20% premium if nano decides to buy shareholders out and close their doors right now.

 

[WattsHappening]

Wow, definitely a lot of snippiness this morning. I will take this as a sign that we are near a bottom.

I'm not at all concerned long term. As others have said, the fundamentals are too strong for the market to continue to ignore. P/E compression is getting ridiculous, and at some point, even the value investors are going to look at TSLA as an incredible value play. Plus, the stock split and all the other positive catalysts coming are going to take root.

So my held shares are just fine as long as I just HODL, which of course I plan to do.

I am however slightly concerned about my Jan 2023 LEAPs. Slightly.

If I had dry powder, I would certainly be deploying it today.

 

[Zero CO2]

don't dare say it

 

[ThisStockGood]

don't dare say it

Not saying it.

 

[Usain]

 

[replicant]

Musk isn’t your bitch. Nobody here has any business complaining about what Musk does or doesn’t unless it directly affects Tesla. Not “Tesla’s share price”. I know people think otherwise, but it’s not his job to manage the share price, it’s his job to manage the company.

On that front, Tesla is in better shape than it’s ever been. Tesla will be just fine with Musk running Twitter too. Musk hires competent managers and they know how to do the things they do without him holding their hand on a daily basis.

Remember Tesla? The business which sells EVs, solar and power storage solutions?

That’s what I care about. Can we please stick with that?

As soon as @tesla tweets the main announcements before @elonmusk do, I will stop bitching. Elon makes everything personal so let's not blame anyone for confusing God and his creation.

Oh, I can show Elon how to log into multiple accounts on Twitter and do retweets. For free, and I'm not asking for the "Tesla Comms VP" title.