Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw, if tonight comes and goes with no Elon sales....then bravo shorts/bears.

What a masterful level of execution to use Elon's twitter buyout filing to orchestrate a panic/fear induced selloff on the basis of Elon selling shares by using the combination of that report stating "Elon was willing to sell Tesla shares if need be" (which again, never provided any proof of Elon saying that) + coordinating a massive short raid, likely with the help of big MM's who were naked shorting.......all right after earnings that blew away even the most bullish expectations.

If that's what happened, probably the most amazing thing I've seen Wall st orchestrate.

Also, call m a conspiracy theorist on this, but I’m still seeing yahoo finance along with other sites that haven’t updated their TTM P/E even though the 10Q came out days ago

 

[Mengy]

Personally I don't care about the stock movements of the last few days: I've been here since 2015-2016, long-term hodler and all that.

Yep. After holding TSLA for many years unexplainable chop simply becomes normal to some degree.

This picture comes to mind:

 

[bubb]

I posted actual financial forecasts today and am wrapping up work on a Q1 analysis megapost. I'm here for useful information, community sharing analysis and fun.

We're currently seeing a flood of off-topic posts about politics, free speech, mobile chargers, complaints about how Elon is handling this, and opining on whether he should be buying Twitter in the first place. All things that have no bearing on pace of innovation which is all that matters in the long run. This has literally received more discussion and dissection on an investment forum than the Q1 earnings report which was the best ever on every level. Somehow the mods are benevolently permitting this to go on, despite giving many warnings to stop.

The only good reasons to even have concerns about a short term price drop are 1) if it's because of legitimately bad news or 2) if the investor has short term cash flow liquidity needs jeopardized by the drop. #1 has not happened here as far as I can tell and #2 would apply for TSLA only if the investor had ignored explicit guidance and historical data indicating to expect wild volatility. Additionally, Elon has exhibited a trend of expanding his personal mission for the last 30 years since he graduated college--and succeeding at it--so it should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention that he is doing it again. This is why I was dismissive of such concerns.

From an investment standpoint, the ideal scenario is objectively excellent news, such as the Q1 update, that is ignored or misinterpreted by the market. It's the definition of an arbitrage opportunity.

Appreciate those contributions and I apologize for getting snippy, we'll just have to disagree on what is appropriate to discuss here as far as downside risks from the current situation. Some members are getting margin called today (not myself, thankfully) and some speculation about how this could play out, good or bad, I think can be pretty helpful for how to resolve that.

 

[brantse]

Btw, if tonight comes and goes with no Elon sales....then bravo shorts/bears.

I just wonder if Elon will strictly adhere to the reporting requirements this time or not? Clearly he (or his lawyers /brokers) decided during the Twitter acquisition not to comply with the rules, and we all know how much he cares for the SEC.

 

[wipster]

What a long, strange trip it's been today, this week, this month, and YTD...

Let's hope April losses bring May gains (and a 10-1 stock dividend gets announced).

 

[ZachF]

(…)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I just wonder if Elon will strictly adhere to the reporting requirements this time or not? Clearly he (or his lawyers /brokers) decided during the Twitter acquisition not to comply with the rules, and we all know how much he cares for the SEC.

Huh? Elon selling shares is a completely separate matter, rules that Elon followed to the tee when he sold in December.

If Elon doesn’t file any forms tonight then he didn’t sell anything on Tuesday, end of story

 

[Unpilot]

Your comments are full of emotional hurt and flight-or-fight response. Good. That's what the shorts are trying to achieve, and you've been played perfectly. That's why hedge funds exist, because they can make a quick buck.

In the long term however, you speak to demand. Yet you ignore that 60% of middle/red 'Murica was nearly violently opposed to EVs just a year ago. But now, by purchasing Twitter and making it a free-speech issue, Elon has romanced that half of the country, and become the Fox News/Business poster boy for rallying their cause. Which Elon is slowing twisting to become EV/renewables.

Converting a a few more Prius-driving sandal lovers in San Francisco (if they convert, it'll be to scooters) isn't going to move the needle on fossil fuel consumption. Its the F-150 4x4 powerstroke diesel heads that need a cognitive reset.

Just wait for the Cybertruck. It'll be here just in time.

Out of self-imposed limbo to say I freakin love this post... Spot on.
The Prius-driving sandal lovers is what did it for me.

Carry on the rest of you....sorry lot that you are.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If Elon doesn’t file any forms tonight then he didn’t sell anything on Tuesday, end of story

I'm as sick of this conversation as the next fellow, but let's not be misleading.

The idea of banks selling(or buying puts) as a hedge against their new massive proxy positions in TSLA is starting to look like the most likely culprit.

I don't know this world well enough to say what's likely happening, but in general a bunch of bank likely are now co-owner of a ton of TSLA shares.

Makes complete sense that someone needed to sell a LOT of TSLA to keep the risk mgmt people happy. This is $21B, the other side of the ledger was going to gain some float.

Just cause we don't see an SEC disclosure from Elon, doesn't mean billions weren't liquidated.

 

[Ogre]

As soon as @tesla tweets the main announcements before @elonmusk do, I will stop bitching. Elon makes everything personal so let's not blame anyone for confusing God and his creation.

Oh, I can show Elon how to log into multiple accounts on Twitter and do retweets. For free, and I'm not asking for the "Tesla Comms VP" title.

Note: "Pedo Guy" Rhymes with "Twitter Buy"? Coincidence? I think not.


We are in the exact same boat we were in 2 weeks ago. It is an amazing boat with increasingly stronger fundamentals... with an eccentric, loud mouthed captain. Maybe a few people choose to buy GM or Ford EVs due to Musk's actions. Maybe a few who wouldn't otherwise will buy Teslas. I'd be curious to see evidence one way or the other, but the general whining takes us nowhere.

 

[MABMAB]

I hate how everyone posts tweets that I see already as they come but find it interesting GB said to ignore some or most of the folks here...

TMC can be FUD too!

 

[15Peter20]

What happened to make the Nasdaq poo?

 

[Ogre]

I hate how everyone posts tweets that I see already as they come but find it interesting GB said to ignore some or most of the folks here...
View attachment 798516

TMC can be FUD too!

Gary said to ignore rumors, not people and he's spot on.

If a bunch of people here are echoing a bunch of rumors and supposition they should know better.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm as sick of this conversation as the next fellow, but let's not be misleading.

The idea of banks selling(or buying puts) as a hedge against their new massive proxy positions in TSLA is starting to look like the most likely culprit.

I don't know this world well enough to say what's likely happening, but in general a bunch of bank likely are now co-owner of a ton of TSLA shares.

Makes complete sense that someone needed to sell a LOT of TSLA to keep the risk mgmt people happy. This is $21B, the other side of the ledger was going to gain some float.

Just cause we don't see an SEC disclosure from Elon, doesn't mean billions weren't liquidated.

? I'm not being misleading at all.

The fear mongering is directly related to Elon selling a large number of shares starting on Tuesday. If no forms come out tonight, then he didn't.

I don't give one second of thought to if banks were selling TSLA because it doesn't matter. It's just another form of fear mongering.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

? I'm not being misleading at all.

The fear mongering is directly related to Elon selling a large number of shares starting on Tuesday. If no forms come out tonight, then he didn't.

I don't give one second of thought to if banks were selling TSLA because it doesn't matter. It's just another form of fear mongering.

What's the difference between Elon selling 15M shares, and Elon making an arrangement with several banks causing them to immediately sell 15M shares?

 

[Ogre]

What's the difference between Elon selling 15M shares, and Elon making an arrangement with several banks causing them to immediately sell 15M shares?

Short term? Nothing.

Long term? The bank's are likely to buy back in at some point once the loan is paid off causing a rise at a later date.

I also think it would shake shareholders a bit more if Musk were selling shares.

In general though I agree, it's not a big deal either way.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What's the difference between Elon selling 15M shares, and Elon making an arrangement with several banks causing them to immediately sell 15M shares?

Sorry but there's no arrangement that "forces" several banks to sell 15 million shares. It's up their own risk management/tolerance.

And the idea that these "several banks" would coordinate to sell in the fashion that we saw on Tuesday and again this morning is beyond silly. The logistics of pulling something that coordinate amongst several banks is just not a feasible thing.

The fear/uncertainty that suddenly hit TSLA out of nowhere started on Tuesday in a very abrupt way. Given the fashion of the selling/trading action, it was either Elon selling in a mass dump of shares or a massive bear/short raid. And the fear out there is directly tied to Elon selling, not banks hedging themselves for risk management. The stock is trading on fears right now, not fundamentals

 

[MP3Mike]

What happened to make the Nasdaq poo?

Huh?

 

[Gigapress]

Appreciate those contributions and I apologize for getting snippy, we'll just have to disagree on what is appropriate to discuss here as far as downside risks from the current situation. Some members are getting margin called today (not myself, thankfully) and some speculation about how this could play out, good or bad, I think can be pretty helpful for how to resolve that.

Sounds good

I am among those who’ve been margin called, in fact 4 times in the last month. Every time, I’ve responded by selling more shares than my brokerage required and used the cash to buy even more LEAPS. Margin calls are no big deal as long as the underlying asset is not actually losing intrinsic future value. I will continue to do this for as long as long as a yawning canyon exists between Tesla’s market capitalization and its net present value of expected cash flows plus current book value.

Zooming out, this company and its Technoking have a multi-decade history of controversy and with it, emotional public overreaction to unimportant or irrelevant events, amplified by FUD-pushing shortsellers/politicians/journalists and options market makers. Time and time again, they’ve pulled through with ethical leadership, a “special forces” culture of extreme discipline and personal responsibility, and world class engineering innovation delivered at speeds normal people can’t comprehend, let alone compete with. Opponents attempting to hold Tesla back always find it like swatting at houseflies by hand; somehow they always manage to dodge the attacks and keep flying.

Berlin and Austin are revolutionary to the point that I’d call them the twin emblems of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. We have millions of orders in the backlog, mostly for Cybertruck, which is basically guaranteed by physics to have massive profit margins and no one has the tech to copy it directly and any alternative truck design can’t hope to match the cost and specs. FSD will eventually be revolutionary. Boring Co is making big moves. Starship will be in orbit. Etc. These have little to no dependence on external factors.

Circa 2020 we passed the tipping point of volume production and positive free cash flow. It’s unstoppable now. Our job as informed investors is to hold steady, keep our jittery amygdalae under firm conscious control (actually enjoying 420 and/or 69 may induce changes in cortisol-serotonin balance that help with this) and throw more fuel on the fire whenever the rain shows up.

 

[traxila]

The move I saw on Tuesday seemed identical to what we have seen in the past when Elon sold or when Tesla raised money ATM, a continuous hammering of the bid on heavy volume with every mini rally crushed.

I assumed the whale that was selling might very well have been Elon. His MO is to move fast when decision is made. And I figured he might have filed paperwork in anticipation of TWTR funding needs.

I apologize for stating that Elon was probably selling. I should have had more evidence to post that statement. Hope it was not Uncle Leo being liquidated.

All the best.