Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

So here is the question of the day… how long until Tesla passes Amazon in market cap?

Indeed. As I post, AMZN market cap is 1,295B while TSLA is 949B. Roughly Tesla needs to break out into new ATH territory (over $1253/sh) to overtake Amazon. One good bull run would do it.

As we approach this threshold, the media and market will chatter about whether Tesla should really be worth more than Amazon. This can excite Amazon investors to bid up the price, and the two can jokey back and forth for the lead position. But I think Tesla will ultimately prevail. I am also an Amazon investor, but Tesla will sustain higher revenue rates than Amazon for the foreseeable future. Eventually, Amazon investors will recognize that Tesla is the better growth engine for their portfolio, and Tesla will lock in the higher market cap.

It'll be a fun horse race to watch.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

How would you know if he did? Its a private company.

I figure word would get out through the grapevine

 

[ZachF]

Spot the outlier!:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519779895974539264

Adjusted for inflation:
+68% TSLA
+14% GOOG
+9% MSFT
+3% SPY
+2% NFLX
+1% AAPL
-1% AMZN
-1% FB

 

[Krugerrand]

I think you might be right, and it would be very wrong for anyone to chastise you for not making it clear that this is your opinion and for not offering proof of your allegations.

One of the advantages of being relatively poor, middle class, and rich all in a single lifetime is you get to experience the different ways in which you are viewed and treated by others. Arguably more importantly, you also get to experience how you personally change.

Being on the richer end of things in this phase of life and needing to deal with new issues, new people and the like, while I don’t have video, photographic or written evidence of what went on behind the scenes this week, I’m quite confident it went down pretty close to how I described it. It’s how it’s generally done at that level.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Couple of Tesla-related tidbits that I saw on Twitter last few days but were lost in the noise of the stock and blue bird stuff. Completely rumor but from semi-notable sources so worth filing away without further speculation:

- Troy disclosed a rumor that the robotaxi will have 6 seats

- Seems like a new GF location may be known to some in the community, with hints that it is not necessarily an expected location. I will say this latter thread could have just been fluff mostly trying to bait Elon into revealing something during a stock swoon, but nonetheless I mention it. I believe it originated from one of the fairly well known Tesla Twitter people but not someone who posts a ton…would have to go digging through my timeline to find.

GigaMariupol - steelworks needs rebuilding fast at Tesla-speed (country will need investment/suitable rebuild projects) and optimising for Semi/Cybertruck's stainless/aluminium. I would imagine a good relationship between potential staff and Tesla. I can imagine that when possible, there would be very rapid buildout with no major delays.

Lots of space and previous (civilian) rocket launches/expertise. Need for tunnels on many levels (literally and figuratively). Great country for online/civil/media discourse, tax and governance experiments.

Fate loves irony - add your own thoughts [but preferably not here! Just fun personal thought experiments], but I'd hope that Ukraine will eventually become safer, more democratic, just / civil and stronger than ever before in its history and its people's history.

 

[jkirkwood001]

So here is the question of the day… how long until Tesla passes Amazon in market cap?

Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com

Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics

companiesmarketcap.com

 

[Drumheller]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Let's see if TSLA actually rebounds with the macros instead of doing it's usual fade as the macro's go lower and then proceed to skip any sort of bounce. Seen it happen too many times at this point to get excited about TSLA being up today.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

Or perhaps he wants to do positive things in situations he feels are injust or negative towards the common human good and doesn't care who he pisses off, what his financial burden may be, nor what the short term ramifications may be. It's his money, and neither you nor I nor anyone else has a right to tell him how to spend it.

Dan

 

[AudubonB]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

That takes the cake for the most convoluted, wacko attempt at justifying what occurred this week that I’ve read - amidst mighty competition, too.




I like it.

 

[jhm]

How is that going to help retain all the new hires at the two new Gigafactories and provide them with an economic reason to stick around a number of years and make a career of it? He wants the factories to hit the ground running and keep running long into the future. Optimus will not be ready in time to solve labor challenges at these huge new factories in the medium term.

Elon is a "big picture" kind of guy, and he likes to accomplish multiple things with a single stroke and move onto bigger things. He knows any impact to share price will be transitory in nature. He's not the kind of guy to tiptoe around while he sells his shares in dark, secret shadows to get every last dollar out of the transaction for himself and screw over his loyal employees. Open public markets exist for a reason and the normal ebb and flow of the price is as natural as the supply and demand of the shares.

Be aware that when selling billions of dollars worth using dark pools it is necessary to reduce the price substantially in order to move that much stock but that is not reflected in the "official" share price. I think Elon is a straight-forward guy and figures the open public markets exist for a reason, they should function as intended. It's actually a subversion of open markets to do large transactions off the books and away from the very markets that you and I have to use.

One additional note: I would not be surprised to see one last "hurrah" attempt by those who are disappointed Elon's selling has ended to keep the share price down. They might figure this will send a powerful message that it's the actual company that is weak, not just a temporary downdraft caused by Elon needing to raise billions in cash and de-risk his Twitter purchase going forward. Any weak hands still holding a portion of their stake could become unnerved and give up their shares.

This could be difficult to pull off if there is unprecedented buying pressure but don't for a minute think they wouldn't try as it really would send a powerful, even if false, message. They don't want this downdraft to be any more temporary than absolutely necessary! Stay strong!

I like this. I also think it is beneficial for Tesla shareholder for Musk to sell some about of Tesla shares so he can have bigger equity in his ownership of Twitter. Without this, his ownership of Twitter would be highly leveraged on the back of his Tesla shares securing his margin loan. That highly leveraged position makes him more of a target for TSLA shortsellers, who will fantasize about triggering a margin call on Musk. It is largely just a fantasy scenario, but it can mobilize a lot of turmoil for Tesla shareholders.

So I'm fine with Musk cashing out $5B to $20B in TSLA to have secure, lower leverage control of Twitter.

I also think it is good for Musk to realize some amount of capital gains each year. Maybe if certain politicians wish that Musk not own social media, they could reconsider the virtue of allowing billionaires to keep their wealth locked up in the businesses that created their wealth in the first place. But if pressured to sell Tesla shares to pay taxes, Musk is going to find other things to do with that cash. Letting the genie out of the bottle comes to mind.

 

[Ogre]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

You pay for what you want with what you've got. If all you have is gold and what you want is a bauble, you have to sell gold.

 

[Rarity]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

A better and more relevant takeaway is that while Tesla spends precisely $0 on advertising, it communicates with the wider world almost exclusively via Musk's Twitter account. Musk is the most effective tweeter and he has the most reach with his tweets. Therefore his Twitter account is the most valuable on the platform.

Over the last two years, Musk has seen that this venue can be shut down for him and Tesla by a group of Twitter employees for non-obvious and wrong reasons. He is removing the gatekeepers.

Also, as the most effective tweeter, Musk sees a few ways in which the product could be made better and more valuable to the most popular accounts, his account being primary. Twitter the company will be made more valuable in the process of implementing these changes.

 

[wipster]

So down 100 points at the open or more?

I've never been so happy to be wrong.

 

[vikings123]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

Sorry this is such a bad take. It might seem like Elon is a "Shoot first think later" kind of guy I think there are enough results to show that he just thinks quicker on his feet than anybody else.

Elon can pull a million other demand drivers before resorting to something this asinine. Stock price will eventually take care of itself.

 

[lascavarian]

Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

Agree, he has a good family that is not out to use him like so many that seem to have been “turned” by having an audience on the tube.

 

[EVDRVN]

That takes the cake for the most convoluted, wacko attempt at justifying what occurred this week that I’ve read - amidst mighty competition, too.




I like it.

It's more valid that you may know unfortunately.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've never been so happy to be wrong.

I hope to echo your statement when the market closes today.

 

[StealthP3D]

Let's see if TSLA actually rebounds with the macros instead of doing it's usual fade as the macro's go lower and then proceed to skip any sort of bounce. Seen it happen too many times at this point to get excited about TSLA being up today.

What is it with attaching emotions like "excited" to transitory short-term price moves? I feel the same way when people get a depressed feeling simply because the share price went down for no good reason. I will be just as happy if the share price ends up at $875 or $925 at the end of the day because I have no plans to sell anytime soon.

It seems wasteful and tiring to let your emotions get jerked around on a day by day basis for something that simply doesn't matter and you have absolutely no control over in any case.

 

[wipster]

I hope to echo your statement when the market closes today.

You are correct sir, the day is young.