Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Englishman]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

My thoughts (though obviously I have no idea what's going on inside Elon's mind) is that he sold like this so that us retail investors could pick up a discount. As Gary Black mentioned (and last time for taxes), he could have just done a block trade and got it over and done with. He would have got more $$$, but I doubt he wants to do Wall St any favours.

What harm did the temporary dip really cause any of us? I picked up a few of Elon's cheap shares - thanks! Unless you were highly leveraged and margin called I guess (although again trying to read Elon's mind) - I doubt he sees those people as true long term Tesla investors and therefore has less compassion.

 

[30seconds]

So $8B or so should be enough for cash needed on Twitter purchase. Good news is that he should be done - unless there is a new new thing of course.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What is it with attaching emotions like "excited" to transitory short-term price moves? I feel the same way when people get a depressed feeling simply because the share price went down for no good reason. I will be just as happy if the share price ends up at $875 or $925 at the end of the day because I have no plans to sell anytime soon.

It seems wasteful and tiring to let your emotions get jerked around on a day by day basis for something that simply doesn't matter.

You’re being entirely too literal here lol . It’s just an expression. I don’t think anyone here is putting any thought into if TSLA holds up today or fades

 

[rallykeeper]

Two minor, but somewhat interesting to me, unrelated thoughts to add to the Elon sale that I hadn't seen mentioned yet.

- Elon has really only raised between $5.5 and $6.5 billion to fund his Twitter purchase. At the very least he owes 23.8% federal capital gains tax and he likely still owes some amount of California income tax on the sale (if he was determined fully subject to CA tax, he'd owe CA 13.3%).

- This sale increases TSLA's float! That means that index buyers (funds and other institutions) will have to increase their ownership of TSLA when rebalancing comes around. I haven't seen a very good estimate of the ownership level, but I'd guess somewhere between 15-45% of TSLA's float is held by passive investors. Those passive investors haven't bought yet (since they need to wait on rebalancing). But, they'll be there when it happens.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

My thoughts (though obviously I have no idea what's going on inside Elon's mind) is that he sold like this so that us retail investors could pick up a discount. As Gary Black mentioned (and last time for taxes), he could have just done a block trade and got it over and done with. He would have got more $$$, but I doubt he wants to do Wall St any favours.

What harm did the temporary dip really cause any of us? I picked up a few of Elon's cheap shares - thanks! Unless you were highly leveraged and margin called I guess (although again trying to read Elon's mind) - I doubt he sees those people as true long term Tesla investors and therefore has less compassion.

I'm a long term Tesla investor but recently took out a single stock securities backed loan to pay a tax bill and buy a house. We put in an offer for the house the day before Elon's sell off in November, but the price recovered just in time for me to get the loan I needed and now, a few days before we move in, I get collateral called by the loan company and have to find a sizeable sum of money to cover the shortfall. I'll now have to sell some shares today or on Tuesday to cover this. I took out the loan specifically so I can keep my TSLA in the long term.

All of this was my risk of course, but this Twitter deal has had some knock-on effects even for those of us who want to HODL.

 

[EVDRVN]

I'm a long term Tesla investor but recently took out a single stock securities backed loan to pay a tax bill and buy a house. We put in an offer for the house the day before Elon's sell off in November, but the price recovered just in time for me to get the loan I needed and now, a few days before we move in, I get collateral called by the loan company and have to find a sizeable sum of money to cover the shortfall. I'll now have to sell some shares today or on Tuesday to cover this. I took out the loan specifically so I can keep my TSLA in the long term.

All of this was my risk of course, but this Twitter deal has had some knock-on effects even for those of us who want to HODL.

I'm sure Elon considered things like this very carefully before deciding and will in the future. /S

 

[betstarship]

I'm a long term Tesla investor but recently took out a single stock securities backed loan to pay a tax bill and buy a house. We put in an offer for the house the day before Elon's sell off in November, but the price recovered just in time for me to get the loan I needed and now, a few days before we move in, I get collateral called by the loan company and have to find a sizeable sum of money to cover the shortfall. I'll now have to sell some shares today or on Tuesday to cover this. I took out the loan specifically so I can keep my TSLA in the long term.

All of this was my risk of course, but this Twitter deal has had some knock-on effects even for those of us who want to HODL.

That sucks and makes sense. Diversifying helps a lot while still trying as best as possible to invest in a company that's trying to avert climate change. Tbh, I found myself turning into a bit of an Elon Musk "stan" on the run-up over the past 2 years to my family and friends. It's not healthy.

 

[Speedr117]

Gary Black is saying the split announcement should happen on Monday. Or at the least, when the annual meeting will be.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520071293961396225

 

[Knightshade]

Two minor, but somewhat interesting to me, unrelated thoughts to add to the Elon sale that I hadn't seen mentioned yet.

- Elon has really only raised between $5.5 and $6.5 billion to fund his Twitter purchase. At the very least he owes 23.8% federal capital gains tax and he likely still owes some amount of California income tax on the sale (if he was determined fully subject to CA tax, he'd owe CA 13.3%).

He sold like 8.4 billion dollars given the Thursday sales (and that assumes there's no more thursday-sale form 4s coming- those could come as late as Monday)-- and if he sold some of his recently acquired shares he'll pay little to no taxes on them at all since the basis price is already going to be quite close to the sale price.

Gary Black is saying the split announcement should happen on Monday. Or at the least, when the annual meeting will be.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1520071293961396225

Yeah, proxy statement by May 2, which could have full deep details on everything to do with the split, or almost no details at all other than some on the fact they intend to have a vote on adding to the authorized share total. The split could be entirely separate from that and requires no additional shareholder approval once the authorized shares are approved.

 

[GOVA]

My takeaway from this week: Elon is willing to sell gold to buy overpriced garbage because he believes he can turn it into something positive. He is ok with his enemies benefitting financially with how the process is executed while keeping his supporters in the dark.

Doesn't change my view of how solid Tesla is and wanting to be invested, though I do note the stock price is in about the same spot as 15 months ago.

Does give me new information to consider about Elon for the future. Perhaps this is all a master manipulation to get global warming deniers to eventually consider buying an EV for other reasons. If so, that's amazing. I've wondered about influence on Elon since he started hanging around with Joe Rogan. If you haven't, I recommend listening to some of Rogan's podcasts. Not someone i would recommend anyone take any advice from.

One man's trash is another man's treasure. He did not spend your money, so all good.

 

[StealthP3D]

A better and more relevant takeaway is that while Tesla spends precisely $0 on advertising, it communicates with the wider world almost exclusively via Musk's Twitter account. Musk is the most effective tweeter and he has the most reach with his tweets. Therefore his Twitter account is the most valuable on the platform.

Over the last two years, Musk has seen that this venue can be shut down for him and Tesla by a group of Twitter employees for non-obvious and wrong reasons. He is removing the gatekeepers.

Also, as the most effective tweeter, Musk sees a few ways in which the product could be made better and more valuable to the most popular accounts, his account being primary. Twitter the company will be made more valuable in the process of implementing these changes.

Good points! Elon is spending his own personal money to de-risk Tesla by ensuring continuity of their primary advertising platform. The value of Twitter to Tesla is at least a few billion dollars (and a lot more if things play out how most of us suspect).

If Elon had lost his Twitter account at some time in the future, the same people who are currently telling us it's "stupid" for Elon to disrupt TSLA like this to play shenanigans with Twitter, would be telling us that Twitter was such a valuable no-cost source of advertising for Tesla that it was negligent for Tesla to not simply buy it to ensure continued access. That it was likely that Elon would eventually get banned and yet nothing was done to prevent it.

 

[Tyler34]

So $8B or so should be enough for cash needed on Twitter purchase. Good news is that he should be done - unless there is a new new thing of course.

How much more does he need to buy coke

 

[Chicagoguy]

Good points! Elon is spending his own personal money to de-risk Tesla by ensuring continuity of their primary advertising platform. The value of Twitter to Tesla is at least a few billion dollars (and a lot more if things play out how most of us suspect).

If Elon had lost his Twitter account at some time in the future, the same people who are currently telling us it's "stupid" for Elon to disrupt TSLA like this to play shenanigans with Twitter, would be telling us that Twitter was such a valuable no-cost source of advertising for Tesla that it was negligent for Tesla to not simply buy it to ensure continued access. That it was likely that Elon would eventually get banned and yet nothing was done to prevent it.

To play devils advocate, he could have took the board seat on twitter and likely avoided getting banned. Initially, I thought this was his reason for buying twitter shares and joining the board.

 

[mongo]

- Elon has really only raised between $5.5 and $6.5 billion to fund his Twitter purchase. At the very least he owes 23.8% federal capital gains tax and he likely still owes some amount of California income tax on the sale (if he was determined fully subject to CA tax, he'd owe CA 13.3%).

Not if he is selling the shares he just received from the 2012 CEO stock options. Many/ most of those have a basis above this week's stock price.

 

[Dutchie]

Tesla paid taxes due to the options exercised by Elon. In this situation I believe Elon sold his existing shares and this would not result in a tax event for tesla.

You’re right, forgot the details

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I'm a long term Tesla investor but recently took out a single stock securities backed loan to pay a tax bill and buy a house. We put in an offer for the house the day before Elon's sell off in November, but the price recovered just in time for me to get the loan I needed and now, a few days before we move in, I get collateral called by the loan company and have to find a sizeable sum of money to cover the shortfall. I'll now have to sell some shares today or on Tuesday to cover this. I took out the loan specifically so I can keep my TSLA in the long term.

All of this was my risk of course, but this Twitter deal has had some knock-on effects even for those of us who want to HODL.

Had you used margin for the loan you could protect against this by purchasing protective puts as insurance against the margin amount used. I'm assuming your sbc loan did not allow for this protective measure.

 

[Ogre]

How much more does he need to buy coke

Coke™ or coke ?

Or coke to put in Coke™ ?

 

[Tyler34]

Coke™ or coke ?

Or coke to put in Coke™ ?

Yes

 

[StealthP3D]

You’re being entirely too literal here lol . It’s just an expression. I don’t think anyone here is putting any thought into if TSLA holds up today or fades

No, I'm talking about the way so many people seem to put so much importance on the day to day moves of the share price when it simply doesn't matter in the bigger picture. And it's obvious that peoples mood is strongly impacted by these meaningless moves because you can see the anger and resentment come out in their posts when the price drops for no fundamental reason and elation when it goes up.

I'm not saying I don't feel good when the price hits new all-time highs or I see a good short-burn unfolding, I'm just surprised how normal daily moves tend to jerk peoples emotions around uncontrollably on a day to day basis.

 

[betstarship]

No, I'm talking about the way so many people seem to put so much importance on the day to day moves of the share price when it simply doesn't matter in the bigger picture. And it's obvious that peoples mood is strongly impacted by these meaningless moves because you can see the anger and resentment come out in their posts when the price drops for no fundamental reason and elation when it goes up.

I'm not saying I don't feel good when the price hits new all-time highs or I see a good short-burn unfolding, I'm just surprised how normal daily moves tend to jerk peoples emotions around uncontrollably on a day to day basis.

I agree with this (I never watched the daily price movements until the run-up started in 2019/2020). Also, would include social media and it's network effects too.